WARNINGEDM
Regression watch: Oilers
The Oilers' PDO is 1.052 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Preview · TOR at EDM
The Oilers are the model's lean over the Maple Leafs — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanSat, Oct 24
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 24, 9:04 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a TOR 3.1 - 3.5 EDM game with the Oilers at 56% win probability.
Keys to the game
- Regression watch: Oilers. The Oilers' PDO is 1.052 — running hot, expect some regression.
- D. Levi was beatable last time out. D. Levi stopped just 81.5% in his last start.
- S. Bobrovsky was beatable last time out. S. Bobrovsky stopped just 84.0% in his last start.
Form Check
- The Oilers are the hotter team by points pace (8-1-1 over their last 10).
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | TOR | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 48.9% | 49.3% |
| Corsi% | 46.7% | 47.3% |
| PDO | 0.986 | 1.052 |
Regression Watch
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.052 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: S. Bobrovsky (+1.4 GSAx in 8 GP, 89.5% SV) vs D. Levi (+0.5 GSAx in 7 GP, 88.7% SV).
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
EDM 56%
56%
EDM
Model favorite
44%
56%
TOR50EDM
EDM by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score TOR 3.1–3.5 EDM; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
TOR← edge
edge →EDM
48.9%49.3%
46.7%47.3%
3.192.99
3.343.07
3.584.60
3.173.20
0.9861.052
EDM holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.986 vs 1.052) says EDM has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
TOR
5-3-2
+4 GD · 1d rest
EDM
8-1-1
+15 GD · 1d rest
0.986
TOR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.052
EDM PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICALEDM
D. Levi was beatable last time out
D. Levi stopped just 81.5% in his last start.
TACTICALTOR
S. Bobrovsky was beatable last time out
S. Bobrovsky stopped just 84.0% in his last start.
Regression watch
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.052 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- Goalie matchup: S. Bobrovsky (+1.4 GSAx in 8 GP, 89.5% SV) vs D. Levi (+0.5 GSAx in 7 GP, 88.7% SV).
- The Oilers are the hotter team by points pace (8-1-1 over their last 10).
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.052 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
TOR
vs NYR · Thu, Oct 22
Expected in goal
S. Bobrovsky
1 day rest.840 last start59:28 played
Backup Anthony Stolarz · -0.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Sissons15:34
- Z. MacEwen07:06
- N. Paul17:27
- B. Duhaime14:14
- A. Matthews19:16
- E. Cowan16:48
- V. Lettieri10:08
- T. Blueger15:18
- K. Marchenko18:23
- W. Nylander20:12
- G. McKenna10:44
- J. Roslovic15:58
Defence · 6
- N. Blankenburg11:27
- J. McCabe21:03
- T. Stecher20:17
- D. Raddysh24:17
- M. Rielly20:58
- O. Ekman-Larsson19:22
EDM
vs CAR · Thu, Oct 22
Expected in goal
D. Levi
1 day rest.815 last start64:12 played
Backup Tristan Jarry · -2.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- T. Frederic08:28
- Z. Hyman20:31
- M. Joseph11:33
- A. Formenton10:17
- L. Draisaitl24:25
- C. Dach11:17
- K. Kapanen20:06
- O. Michaels12:08
- I. Howard10:07
- V. Podkolzin18:05
- R. Nugent-Hopkins20:58
- C. McDavid25:02
Defence · 6
- E. Bouchard29:59
- C. Murphy22:21
- R. Shea28:45
- M. Ekholm14:16
- T. Emberson10:05
- J. Walman15:19
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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