TACTICAL
The Penguins drive Corsi at 50.8%
The Penguins drive Corsi at 50.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Preview · NSH at PIT
Predators at Penguins: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanSat, Oct 24
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 24, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Pittsburgh has the slight edge, but Nashville has a real path to a win, and the margins will decide it.
The model gives the Penguins a 54% chance to win at home. It projects Nashville 3.1 and Pittsburgh 3.4, which makes this about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Pittsburgh's main strength is territory. The Penguins own 50.8% of shot attempts at five-on-five this season, so expect them to spend more time pushing play into the Predators' end.
The gap narrows on expected goals, where Pittsburgh's share is 49.3%. Nashville's is 47.6%.
Nashville's case rests partly on luck. The Predators' combined shooting and save percentage is 0.966, which is running cold and due for positive regression. That is where Nashville's upside comes from.
Both teams are also underwater in goal differential. Pittsburgh is at -8 over its last 10 games. Nashville is at -7 over its 9 games so far.
In goal, the sample sizes are thin. J. Annunen has a goals-saved-above-expected figure of -1.9 in 1 game, with a save percentage of 80.6%. A. Silovs is at -0.1 in 7 games, with a save percentage of 88.5%.
Expect a tight game with little room for error. The 54% edge is thin, and the goalie numbers are too small to settle it. Margins will decide this one.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
PIT 54%
54%
PIT
Model favorite
46%
54%
NSH50PIT
PIT by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NSH 3.1–3.4 PIT; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
NSH← edge
edge →PIT
47.6%49.3%
44.7%50.8%
2.793.24
3.063.33
2.563.27
3.113.36
0.9660.998
PIT holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.966 vs 0.998) says PIT has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 9–10
NSH
3-3-3
-7 GD · 1d rest
PIT
3-6-1
-8 GD · 1d rest
0.966
NSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.998
PIT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGNSH
Regression watch: Predators
The Predators' PDO is 0.966 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A genuine coin flip
Win probability splits 54%–46% — margins decide this one.
TACTICALNSH
J. Annunen was beatable last time out
J. Annunen stopped just 80.6% in his last start.
Where the edges live
- The Penguins drive Corsi at 50.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Predators' PDO is 0.966 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Penguins drive Corsi at 50.8% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Annunen (-1.9 GSAx in 1 GP, 80.6% SV) vs A. Silovs (-0.1 GSAx in 7 GP, 88.5% SV).
- The Penguins are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Predators are underwater at -7 goal differential over their 9 games so far.
- The Predators' PDO is 0.966 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
NSH
vs BOS · Thu, Oct 22
Expected in goal
J. Annunen
1 day rest.806 last start60:00 played
Backup Juuse Saros · -0.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- F. Forsberg17:30
- A. Kerfoot16:59
- J. Drury17:27
- N. Hoglander12:12
- M. Bourque14:36
- R. Schaefer11:36
- M. Wood11:24
- R. Colton11:19
- J. Marchessault16:10
- A. Edstrom16:58
- R. O'Reilly16:35
- S. Stamkos14:04
Defence · 6
- A. Wilsby22:09
- J. Struble18:07
- N. Hague20:13
- I. Lyubushkin16:11
- R. Josi24:29
- B. Skjei17:46
PIT
vs FLA · Thu, Oct 22
Expected in goal
A. Silovs
1 day rest1.000 last start60:00 played
Backup Sergei Murashov · -0.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- R. McGroarty15:05
- N. Robertson14:06
- T. Novak16:37
- C. Dewar16:42
- H. Lapierre10:54
- E. Soderblom10:35
- V. Koivunen13:26
- B. Lizotte16:30
- A. Kuzmenko14:46
- R. Rakell19:06
- E. Malkin12:54
- S. Crosby16:39
Defence · 6
- K. Korczak19:22
- I. Solovyov16:38
- S. Stastney18:23
- K. Letang16:55
- E. Karlsson24:09
- D. Carlile19:13
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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