STRENGTHOTT
Linus Ullmark has been a season-long wall
Linus Ullmark: +8.0 GSAx over 8 games (0.945 SV%).
Preview · NYR at OTT
The Senators are the model's lean over the Rangers — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanSat, Oct 24
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 24, 9:02 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a NYR 2.9 - 3.3 OTT game with the Senators at 56% win probability.
Keys to the game
- Linus Ullmark has been a season-long wall. Linus Ullmark: +8.0 GSAx over 8 games (0.945 SV%).
- Regression watch: Senators. The Senators' PDO is 1.017 — running hot, expect some regression.
- Regression watch: Rangers. The Rangers' PDO is 1.022 — running hot, expect some regression.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | NYR | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 52.2% | 53.5% |
| Corsi% | 46.6% | 47.3% |
| PDO | 1.022 | 1.017 |
Regression Watch
- The Senators' PDO is 1.017 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Rangers' PDO is 1.022 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: D. Garand (+1.1 GSAx in 8 GP, 91.5% SV) vs S. Ersson (-5.5 GSAx in 5 GP, 83.5% SV).
- D. Garand has the GSAx edge — 6.5 goals above his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
OTT 56%
57%
OTT
Model favorite
43%
57%
NYR50OTT
OTT by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NYR 2.9–3.3 OTT; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
NYR← edge
edge →OTT
52.2%53.5%
46.6%47.3%
3.213.19
2.942.78
3.082.64
2.422.73
1.0221.017
The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.022 vs 1.017) says NYR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
NYR
6-3-1
+7 GD · 1d rest
OTT
6-4-0
+0 GD · 1d rest
1.022
NYR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.017
OTT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGOTT
Regression watch: Senators
The Senators' PDO is 1.017 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGNYR
Regression watch: Rangers
The Rangers' PDO is 1.022 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICALOTT
S. Ersson was beatable last time out
S. Ersson stopped just 84.6% in his last start.
Regression watch
- The Senators' PDO is 1.017 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Rangers' PDO is 1.022 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- Goalie matchup: D. Garand (+1.1 GSAx in 8 GP, 91.5% SV) vs S. Ersson (-5.5 GSAx in 5 GP, 83.5% SV).
- D. Garand has the GSAx edge — 6.5 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Senators' PDO is 1.017 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
NYR
vs TOR · Thu, Oct 22
Expected in goal
D. Garand
1 day rest.857 last start59:32 played
Backup Igor Shesterkin · +6.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Miller17:01
- A. Lafrenière19:03
- T. Raddysh08:32
- P. Dorofeyev16:33
- E. Tolvanen12:12
- T. Kartye16:26
- O. Bjorkstrand10:23
- J. Dowling06:56
- N. Laba15:04
- W. Cuylle16:08
- M. Zibanejad21:36
- G. Perreault19:23
Defence · 6
- B. Schneider17:13
- S. Durzi18:01
- A. Smits12:27
- A. Fox23:59
- M. Pettersson21:16
- V. Gavrikov25:02
OTT
vs SJS · Thu, Oct 22
Expected in goal
S. Ersson
1 day rest.846 last start56:06 played
Backup Linus Ullmark · +8.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Pinto20:17
- T. Stützle22:54
- D. Batherson18:14
- F. Zetterlund15:53
- N. Cousins09:15
- M. Amadio13:55
- D. Cozens17:17
- C. Giroux18:44
- S. Halliday15:20
- W. Foegele12:48
- H. Hodgson03:03
- R. Greig19:07
Defence · 6
- A. Zub18:11
- J. Spence17:34
- C. Yakemchuk17:53
- N. Matinpalo16:53
- T. Kleven17:02
- J. Sanderson26:09
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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