STRENGTHBOS
Jeremy Swayman has been a season-long wall
Jeremy Swayman: +9.1 GSAx over 8 games (0.928 SV%).
Preview · SJS at BOS
Sharks at Bruins: no daylight between these two
The model's leanSat, Oct 24
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 24, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Boston gets the nod, but only just. The model's own projection calls this about as close to a pick'em as the schedule offers, and the lean comes down to goaltending and which team has been winning the battle for good chances.
The model gives Boston a 54% chance to win, with a projected score of San Jose 3.1, Boston 3.4.
Goaltending is the biggest reason for the lean. Jeremy Swayman has been a season-long wall. Across 8 games, he has kept out 9.1 more goals than his shots predicted. His save percentage over that stretch is 0.928.
The five-on-five numbers point the same way. Expected goals measure how dangerous the shots are, so a bigger share means a team is creating the better chances. Boston holds the edge in both expected goals and shot attempts, as the table shows.
Luck is the flip side. Boston's shooting and save luck has been running hot, and the model expects some of that to cool. San Jose's has run cold, which the model reads as a reason to expect a bounce back.
San Jose arrives in a hole, with a goal differential of -5 over its last 10 games. Those recent results match what the underlying numbers suggest.
In the goalie matchup, Y. Askarov has played 7 games, has kept out 2.3 more goals than expected, and has a save percentage of 88.3%. M. DiPietro has played 3 games, has kept out 5.5 more goals than expected, and has a save percentage of 94.1%.
| Metric | San Jose | Boston |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 42.5% | 46.6% |
| Shot attempt share | 45.7% | 48.3% |
| Shooting and save luck combined | 0.973 | 1.070 |
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
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Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
BOS 54%
54%
BOS
Model favorite
46%
54%
SJS50BOS
BOS by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score SJS 3.1–3.4 BOS; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
SJS← edge
edge →BOS
42.5%46.6%
45.7%48.3%
2.833.01
3.833.46
2.913.82
3.272.00
0.9731.070
BOS holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.973 vs 1.070) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
SJS
5-4-1
-5 GD · 1d rest
BOS
7-2-1
+17 GD · 1d rest
0.973
SJS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.070
BOS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Bruins own the underlying play
The Bruins own the underlying play — 46.6% 5v5 xG vs 42.5%.
WARNINGBOS
Regression watch: Bruins
The Bruins' PDO is 1.070 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGSJS
Regression watch: Sharks
The Sharks' PDO is 0.973 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Bruins own the underlying play — 46.6% 5v5 xG vs 42.5%.
Regression watch
- The Bruins' PDO is 1.070 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.973 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Bruins own the underlying play — 46.6% 5v5 xG vs 42.5%.
- Goalie matchup: Y. Askarov (+2.3 GSAx in 7 GP, 88.3% SV) vs M. DiPietro (+5.5 GSAx in 3 GP, 94.1% SV).
- The Sharks are underwater at -5 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Bruins' PDO is 1.070 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
SJS
vs OTT · Thu, Oct 22
Expected in goal
Y. Askarov
1 day rest.953 last start60:00 played
Backup Alex Nedeljkovic · +3.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- W. Smith16:54
- T. Dellandrea15:26
- B. Goodrow13:41
- M. Marchment14:15
- I. Stenberg13:58
- K. Sherwood18:39
- C. Graf19:32
- Z. Ostapchuk11:00
- M. Celebrini23:11
- T. Toffoli11:06
- M. Misa14:21
- I. Chernyshov04:54
Defence · 6
- N. Allan16:34
- S. Dickinson19:47
- M. Kesselring18:12
- D. Orlov16:51
- D. Nurse21:52
- J. Trouba23:47
BOS
vs NSH · Thu, Oct 22
Expected in goal
M. DiPietro
1 day rest1.000 last start60:00 played
Backup Jeremy Swayman · +9.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Peterka17:52
- C. Mittelstadt15:03
- P. Zacha16:11
- E. Lindholm13:43
- M. Geekie14:34
- J. Hagens15:04
- M. Kastelic14:14
- M. Poitras13:34
- T. Jeannot13:51
- D. Pastrnak16:37
- M. Khusnutdinov14:22
- F. Minten15:28
Defence · 6
- M. Lohrei20:14
- W. Borgen19:45
- H. Lindholm20:21
- F. Brunet18:18
- C. McAvoy19:01
- N. Zadorov19:48
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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