TACTICAL
The Hurricanes own the underlying play
The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 64.4% 5v5 xG vs 46.4%.
Preview · WSH at CAR
The Hurricanes should handle the Capitals — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanTue, Oct 13
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 13, 9:03 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Carolina should win this one, and the reason lies in how it has played rather than how it has finished. The Hurricanes have controlled the run of play at five-on-five, and that matters more over a full game than a few lucky bounces.
The model gives Carolina a 62% chance to win. It projects 3.8 goals for the Hurricanes and 2.9 for the Capitals, a gap that matches the territorial picture.
Carolina holds 64.4% of expected goals at five-on-five. That share tracks where the dangerous chances come from, which is why it counts for more than raw totals. Washington's 46.4% is the flip side of the same number.
Shot attempts point the same way. Carolina takes 58.5% of them, so expect the Capitals to spend long stretches defending.
The caveat is luck. PDO, the combined shooting and save percentage with a team on the ice, is where Washington stands out. Its 1.030 is running hot, and a figure that high is rarely sustained, so expect some regression.
Goaltending is where that regression could show. L. Thompson has +2.5 goals saved above what his shots predicted over 4 games. P. Kochetkov is at +0.7 over 3 games, but his 91.2% save percentage is the stronger rate.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
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Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
CAR 62%
62%
CAR
Model favorite
38%
62%
WSH50CAR
CAR by 24 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score WSH 2.9–3.8 CAR; 15% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
WSH← edge
edge →CAR
46.4%64.4%
49.3%58.5%
3.253.98
3.752.20
3.403.86
2.802.43
1.0300.991
CAR holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.030 vs 0.991) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 5–7
WSH
3-2-0
+3 GD · 1d rest
CAR
5-1-1
+10 GD · 1d rest
1.030
WSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.991
CAR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 58.5%
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 58.5% — expect territorial tilt.
TACTICALCAR
The model's clear lean
The Hurricanes project at 62% win probability.
WARNINGWSH
Regression watch: Capitals
The Capitals' PDO is 1.030 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 64.4% 5v5 xG vs 46.4%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 58.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.030 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 64.4% 5v5 xG vs 46.4%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 58.5% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: L. Thompson (+2.5 GSAx in 4 GP, 90.2% SV) vs P. Kochetkov (+0.7 GSAx in 3 GP, 91.2% SV).
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.030 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
WSH
vs SEA · Sun, Oct 11
Expected in goal
L. Thompson
1 day rest.815 last start57:42 played
Backup Charlie Lindgren · +2.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Ovechkin16:56
- R. Leonard15:21
- D. Strome19:34
- A. Protas14:49
- B. Jenner15:31
- J. Kyrou15:49
- J. Sourdif11:36
- T. Wilson20:49
- E. Frank09:11
- I. Protas12:51
- A. Beauvillier08:53
- A. Tuch20:52
Defence · 6
- J. Chychrun27:23
- T. Liljegren21:17
- M. Fehérváry23:32
- C. Hutson20:02
- D. McIlrath05:05
- V. Desharnais18:47
CAR
vs PHI · Sun, Oct 11
Expected in goal
P. Kochetkov
1 day rest.947 last start60:00 played
Backup Brandon Bussi · -3.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Aho18:24
- L. Stankoven17:44
- N. Ehlers17:41
- W. Carrier12:12
- A. Svechnikov16:26
- N. Deslauriers08:45
- J. Martinook14:17
- E. Robinson12:31
- J. Blake20:25
- T. Hall15:26
- M. Jankowski15:48
- J. Kotkaniemi10:43
Defence · 6
- S. Gostisbehere17:22
- J. Chatfield21:01
- M. Reilly11:14
- K. Miller22:06
- S. Walker22:44
- J. Slavin19:11
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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