WARNINGBUF
C. Ellis on a back-to-back
C. Ellis projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · BUF at MTL
Sabres at Canadiens: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanTue, Oct 13
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 13, 9:03 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Our model can't separate these two teams, and the reasons it can't are more interesting than the forecast itself.
The schedule tilts the ice slightly toward Montreal. The Canadiens arrive with two days of rest, while the Sabres have none. C. Ellis projects to start the second night of a back-to-back, which is exactly the kind of spot where a backup start or tired legs can show up.
The goalie matchup is where the coin flip gets interesting. C. Ellis has a save percentage of 86.4% over three games, and he has allowed 0.9 more goals than the shots he faced should have produced. J. Fowler has a save percentage of 93.8% over two games and has saved 3.6 more goals than expected. That gap is the single biggest reason the model hesitates to pick Buffalo.
Buffalo does control more of the quality chances. At five-on-five, the Sabres hold 53.7% of expected goals, the model's measure of how dangerous the shots they take are. Montreal's share is 45.6%. By raw shot attempts, though, the two are almost identical.
| Five-on-five metric | Sabres | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 53.7% | 45.6% |
| Shot attempts share | 54.8% | 54.6% |
| Shooting plus save percentage | 0.933 | 0.976 |
Buffalo has also struggled to convert its territory into results, sitting at minus-6 in goal differential through six games.
Luck is the wild card. Both teams' shooting plus save percentages are running cold, and the model expects each to bounce back. That cuts against the Canadiens' goalie edge and the Sabres' underlying play in different ways, which is why the forecast stays so close to even.
The model calls it a coin flip. The goalies and the rest gap are the two things most likely to decide which side lands up.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 6:30 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
BUF 51%
51%
BUF
Model favorite
51%
49%
BUF50MTL
BUF by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score BUF 3.3–3.3 MTL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
BUF← edge
edge →MTL
53.7%45.6%
54.8%54.6%
3.342.98
2.883.55
2.672.80
3.673.80
0.9330.976
BUF holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.933 vs 0.976) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 5–6
BUF
3-3-0
-6 GD · 0d rest
MTL
2-2-1
-4 GD · 2d rest
0.933
BUF PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.976
MTL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Sabres own the underlying play
The Sabres own the underlying play — 53.7% 5v5 xG vs 45.6%.
WARNINGMTL
Regression watch: Canadiens
The Canadiens' PDO is 0.976 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGBUF
Regression watch: Sabres
The Sabres' PDO is 0.933 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Sabres own the underlying play — 53.7% 5v5 xG vs 45.6%.
Regression watch
- The Canadiens' PDO is 0.976 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Sabres' PDO is 0.933 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Sabres own the underlying play — 53.7% 5v5 xG vs 45.6%.
- Goalie matchup: C. Ellis (-0.9 GSAx in 3 GP, 86.4% SV) vs J. Fowler (+3.6 GSAx in 2 GP, 93.8% SV).
- C. Ellis is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Sabres are underwater at -6 goal differential over their 6 games so far.
- The Canadiens' PDO is 0.976 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Canadiens have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
BUF
vs FLA · Mon, Oct 12
Expected in goal
C. Ellis
back-to-back.778 last start26:26 played
C. Ellis started last game and was relieved by U. Luukkonen (33:34 of it).
Backup Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · -4.0 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- Z. Benson19:40
- J. Norris11:24
- P. Krebs15:08
- J.Kulich13:52
- J. Quinn17:35
- B. Malenstyn09:56
- T. Kozak10:46
- R. McLeod16:04
- T. Thompson17:58
- N. Ostlund17:54
- J. Doan16:15
- K. Helenius14:52
Defence · 6
- O. Zellweger20:03
- M. Samuelsson26:59
- O. Power26:31
- R. Dahlin09:06
- L. Crevier15:03
- Z. Metsa15:38
MTL
vs DET · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
J. Fowler
2 days rest1.000 last start64:46 played
Backup Jakub Dobes · -3.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- C. Caufield21:17
- N. Suzuki26:06
- A. Newhook16:56
- J. Anderson14:54
- J. Slafkovský22:10
- C. Kreider17:21
- P. Danault17:23
- J. Evans11:53
- Z. Bolduc15:48
- K. Dach07:35
- A. Texier18:04
Defence · 7
- M. Matheson23:01
- K. Guhle15:33
- A. Engstrom06:54
- A. Carrier18:23
- L. Hutson26:30
- N. Dobson19:54
- A. Xhekaj07:32
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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