WARNINGFLA
J. Markstrom on a back-to-back
J. Markstrom projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · FLA at CBJ
Panthers at Blue Jackets: a true toss-up
The model's leanTue, Oct 13
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 13, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
This one is close to a coin flip. Florida controls more of the play, Columbus has the fresher legs, and the model says those two edges cancel out almost exactly.
The projected score is Florida 3.1 and Columbus 3.2, which gives the Blue Jackets a 51% win probability. That is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Florida's advantage shows up in the process. Over the season at 5-on-5, the Panthers have taken 53.0% of the expected goals, against 49.8% for Columbus. Their share of shot attempts is 55.9%, so expect the game to tilt toward Florida's end of the ice. The scoreboard tells a different story: the Panthers are at -5 in goal differential through 6 games.
Columbus's luck runs the other way. Its PDO, the combined shooting and save percentage, is 1.003, against 0.994 for Florida.
Rest belongs to Columbus. The Blue Jackets come in on 2 days of rest, and the Panthers on 0.
In goal, J. Markstrom projects to start the second night of a back-to-back, on no rest, so watch for a backup start or tired legs. When he has played, he has been strong. Over 5 games, he has stopped 1.8 more goals than his shots should have allowed, and his save percentage is 90.4%. J. Greaves has allowed 2.6 more goals than his workload should have across 3 games, with a save percentage of 86.7%.
The Blue Jackets' most productive scoring lane is the slot, where they have 7 goals on 46 shots, a 15% rate. Denying that area is the job for Florida.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 6:15 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
CBJ 51%
51%
CBJ
Model favorite
49%
51%
FLA50CBJ
CBJ by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score FLA 3.1–3.2 CBJ; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
FLA← edge
edge →CBJ
53.0%49.8%
55.9%50.1%
3.182.94
2.812.96
2.003.00
2.833.50
0.9941.003
FLA holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.994 vs 1.003) says CBJ has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 4–6
FLA
2-2-2
-5 GD · 0d rest
CBJ
2-2-0
-1 GD · 2d rest
0.994
FLA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.003
CBJ PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Panthers own the underlying play
The Panthers own the underlying play — 53.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.8%.
TACTICAL
The Panthers drive Corsi at 55.9%
The Panthers drive Corsi at 55.9% — expect territorial tilt.
TACTICALCBJ
Rest edge
The Blue Jackets come in on 2 days of rest; the other side on 0.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
Where the edges live
- The Panthers own the underlying play — 53.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.8%.
- The Panthers drive Corsi at 55.9% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Panthers own the underlying play — 53.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.8%.
- The Panthers drive Corsi at 55.9% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Markstrom (+1.8 GSAx in 5 GP, 90.4% SV) vs J. Greaves (-2.6 GSAx in 3 GP, 86.7% SV).
- J. Markstrom is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Panthers are underwater at -5 goal differential over their 6 games so far.
- The Blue Jackets have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
FLA
vs BUF · Mon, Oct 12
Expected in goal
J. Markstrom
back-to-back.818 last start20:00 played
J. Markstrom started last game and was relieved by A. Schmid (38:08 of it).
Backup Akira Schmid · -2.1 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- B. Tkachuk16:32
- S. Bennett15:34
- S. Reinhart20:27
- B. Imama08:56
- A. Lundell14:51
- S. Lafferty14:54
- M. Tkachuk18:25
- L. Eller12:36
- G. Hathaway10:05
- C. Verhaeghe17:37
- E. Luostarinen16:37
- S. Vilmanis12:21
Defence · 6
- S. Jones23:55
- A. Ekblad20:25
- R. Gudas12:27
- D. Kulikov14:32
- G. Forsling24:10
- N. Mikkola19:48
CBJ
vs STL · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
J. Greaves
2 days rest.846 last start58:46 played
Backup Cam Talbot · +0.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Coyle16:38
- C. Sillinger16:00
- D. Voronkov12:39
- A. Fantilli18:28
- S. Monahan18:37
- M. Olivier11:56
- V. Nichushkin16:28
- D. Heinen12:04
- C. Garland14:58
- M. Knies14:40
- K. Johnson17:01
- R. Lomberg09:39
Defence · 6
- J. Christiansen12:48
- D. Mateychuk21:13
- C. Soucy11:35
- Z. Werenski28:13
- E. Gudbranson19:35
- D. Severson24:42
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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