WARNINGNJD
N. Daws on a back-to-back
N. Daws projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · NJD at DET
Devils at Red Wings: no daylight between these two
The model's leanTue, Oct 13
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 13, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Nothing separates these teams on paper, and the model's read is close to a pick'em. Detroit gets the narrow nod, but the case for doubt runs both ways.
The first thing to check is who is in net for New Jersey. N. Daws is projected to start on the second night of a back-to-back, so watch for a backup start or tired legs. Through two starts he has allowed more goals than his workload should have allowed, and his save percentage is 82.4%.
Across the ice, D. Tarasov has stopped 97.4% of shots in two starts. This season he is 6.0 goals ahead of his counterpart in goals saved above expected.
Both teams are underwater through five games so far. Detroit's goal differential is -5, and New Jersey's is -7.
The Devils control the territory battle, taking 63.3% of shot attempts at five-on-five. Detroit sits at 54.6%, so expect territorial tilt. Weight those shots by quality and the gap narrows, with New Jersey at 53.3% of expected goals and Detroit at 51.5%.
Detroit arrives on two days of rest, and New Jersey comes in on none. Both teams have also been running cold on combined shooting and save percentage. Detroit's figure is 0.971, which the draft calls cold and due to rise, and New Jersey's is lower at 0.940.
So the Devils have the better shot profile, the Red Wings have the rest and the recent luck, and the game turns on who is in net.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 6:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
DET 52%
52%
DET
Model favorite
48%
52%
NJD50DET
DET by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NJD 3.2–3.3 DET; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
NJD← edge
edge →DET
53.3%51.5%
63.3%54.6%
3.543.33
3.103.14
2.202.00
3.602.80
0.9400.971
NJD holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.940 vs 0.971) says DET has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 5
NJD
2-3-0
-7 GD · 0d rest
DET
1-3-1
-5 GD · 2d rest
0.940
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.971
DET PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Devils drive Corsi at 63.3%
The Devils drive Corsi at 63.3% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGDET
Regression watch: Red Wings
The Red Wings' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGNJD
Regression watch: Devils
The Devils' PDO is 0.940 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Devils drive Corsi at 63.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Red Wings' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Devils' PDO is 0.940 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Devils drive Corsi at 63.3% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: N. Daws (-2.2 GSAx in 2 GP, 82.4% SV) vs D. Tarasov (+3.8 GSAx in 2 GP, 97.4% SV).
- D. Tarasov has the GSAx edge — 6.0 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Red Wings are underwater at -5 goal differential over their 5 games so far.
- The Devils are underwater at -7 goal differential over their 5 games so far.
- The Red Wings' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Red Wings have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
NJD
vs OTT · Mon, Oct 12
Expected in goal
N. Daws
back-to-back.842 last start58:08 played
Backup Jake Allen · -0.3 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- C. Glass13:52
- N. Hischier18:08
- E. Rodrigues15:40
- T. Meier14:38
- A. Mantha12:22
- J. Bratt17:13
- J. Boqvist10:43
- L. Evangelista11:43
- A. Gritsyuk13:56
- J. Hughes20:41
- D. Mercer13:45
- A. Lombardi12:10
Defence · 6
- B. Dillon15:41
- D. Hamilton22:10
- B. Pesce21:00
- L. Hughes22:53
- D. Chisholm14:22
- J. Siegenthaler19:31
DET
vs MTL · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
D. Tarasov
2 days rest1.000 last start65:00 played
Backup John Gibson · -2.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- S. Dries09:34
- A. Copp19:18
- L. Raymond21:11
- M. Rasmussen18:06
- M. Brandsegg-Nygård15:07
- N. Danielson09:03
- V. Arvidsson19:25
- K. Kolesar14:55
- E. Finnie17:25
- D. Larkin22:40
- A. DeBrincat21:50
Defence · 7
- B. Chiarot20:51
- A. Johansson15:57
- A. Englund14:18
- A. Johansson10:42
- A. Sandin-Pellikka08:50
- M. Seider29:33
- J. Faulk18:15
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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