TACTICAL
The Golden Knights own the underlying play
The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 62.7% 5v5 xG vs 51.0%.
Preview · VGK at MIN
Golden Knights at Wild: too close to call
The model's leanMon, Oct 12
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 12, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model has the Golden Knights edging the Wild, 3.2 - 3.0, and it gives Vegas only a 53% chance to win. That is about as close to a coin flip as the board gets.
The Golden Knights own the underlying play. Their share of expected goals and shot attempts both beat Minnesota's, so they have been creating the better chances, and the game should tilt toward their end of the ice. The table below has the full five-on-five picture.
| Metric | Golden Knights | Wild |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goal share | 62.7% | 51.0% |
| Shot attempt share | 56.5% | 49.4% |
| Shooting-plus-save figure | 0.978 | 0.996 |
Minnesota's advantage sits in goal. J. Wallstedt has stopped 5.3 more goals than expected across five games. His save percentage is 93.6%.
C. Hart has allowed 0.8 more goals than expected in four games. His save percentage is 91.0%. Across this season, Wallstedt sits 6.2 goals ahead of his counterpart, and that gap is the main reason Minnesota can hold this game.
Vegas has a case for better luck ahead. The Golden Knights' shooting-plus-save figure is running cold, and a number that low is due to bounce back upward.
Put together, Vegas has the better process and Minnesota has the better goaltending, which is why this one is a genuine toss-up.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
VGK 53%
53%
VGK
Model favorite
53%
47%
VGK50MIN
VGK by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score VGK 3.2–3.0 MIN; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
VGK← edge
edge →MIN
62.7%51.0%
56.5%49.4%
3.693.19
2.203.07
3.673.00
2.331.80
0.9780.996
VGK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.978 vs 0.996) says MIN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 5–6
VGK
5-1-0
+9 GD · 1d rest
MIN
3-1-1
+6 GD · 1d rest
0.978
VGK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.996
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 56.5%
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 56.5% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGVGK
Regression watch: Golden Knights
The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.978 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
Too close to call
Win probability splits 47%–53% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 62.7% 5v5 xG vs 51.0%.
- The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 56.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.978 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 62.7% 5v5 xG vs 51.0%.
- The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 56.5% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: C. Hart (-0.8 GSAx in 4 GP, 91.0% SV) vs J. Wallstedt (+5.3 GSAx in 5 GP, 93.6% SV).
- J. Wallstedt has the GSAx edge — 6.2 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.978 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
VGK
vs LAK · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
C. Hart
1 day rest.963 last start62:40 played
Backup Adin Hill · -0.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Eichel22:59
- M. Gatcomb10:53
- B. Howden15:25
- T. Connelly14:12
- N. Dowd10:26
- R. Lavoie09:22
- B. Bowman12:44
- T. Hertl15:32
- I. Barbashev19:08
- M. Stone18:51
- W. Karlsson16:40
- M. Marner20:16
Defence · 6
- B. McNabb19:50
- R. Andersson18:58
- J. Lauzon16:46
- N. Hanifin20:13
- S. Theodore21:46
- P. Wotherspoon19:05
MIN
vs FLA · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
J. Wallstedt
1 day rest.967 last start59:58 played
Forwards · 12
- B. Brink10:51
- M. Boldy20:56
- Y. Trenin12:36
- J. Eriksson Ek18:12
- B. Coleman16:36
- D. Yurov15:08
- R. Hartman13:43
- M. McCarron11:36
- M. Shabanov13:27
- R. Lorenz07:12
- N. Sturm12:51
- K. Kaprizov20:11
Defence · 6
- O. Maatta21:33
- J. Brodin23:16
- Q. Hughes25:35
- J. Spurgeon24:40
- D. Hunt11:48
- D. Spacek09:51
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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