TACTICAL
The Devils drive Corsi at 61.3%
The Devils drive Corsi at 61.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Preview · OTT at NJD
Senators at Devils: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanMon, Oct 12
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 12, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects Ottawa and New Jersey to finish level at 3.2 goals apiece, about as close to a pick'em as this slate gets.
The tie hides a territorial story. The Devils control 61.3% of shot attempts at five-on-five this season, so expect real territorial tilt toward New Jersey. Ottawa sits at 47.2%. Weight those shots by quality and the gap narrows, with New Jersey at 54.1% of expected goals.
Ottawa arrives as the hotter team by points pace, 4-1-0 over their 5 games so far.
The Devils are also running cold. Their combined shooting and save percentage is 0.945, and that number mostly tracks puck luck, so positive regression is due. Ottawa is the mirror image, at 1.042 and running hot, so expect some of that luck to come back.
Goaltending is where New Jersey is exposed. J. Allen stops only 76.9% of high-danger chances, so Ottawa should prioritize quality over quantity. New Jersey's most productive lane is the slot, which has produced 10 goals on 64 shots. The Senators have to deny that lane.
In the other crease, L. Ullmark has saved 3.9 more goals than expected in 4 games. His save percentage is 94.2%. J. Allen has allowed slightly more goals than expected in 3 games, and his save percentage is 89.6%.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
OTT 50%
50%
OTT
Model favorite
50%
50%
OTT50NJD
OTT by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score OTT 3.2–3.2 NJD; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
OTT← edge
edge →NJD
52.7%54.1%
47.2%61.3%
3.123.63
2.803.08
2.802.50
2.203.50
1.0420.945
The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.042 vs 0.945) says OTT has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 4–5
OTT
4-1-0
+4 GD · 1d rest
NJD
2-2-0
-4 GD · 1d rest
1.042
OTT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.945
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICALNJD
Goalie Weakness: Devils
Below-average on high-danger saves. Prioritize quality over quantity.
Their goalie (Jake Allen) leaks HD — 76.9% HD SV. Get to the slot.
WARNINGNJD
Regression watch: Devils
The Devils' PDO is 0.945 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGOTT
Regression watch: Senators
The Senators' PDO is 1.042 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Devils drive Corsi at 61.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Devils' PDO is 0.945 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Senators' PDO is 1.042 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Devils drive Corsi at 61.3% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: L. Ullmark (+3.9 GSAx in 4 GP, 94.2% SV) vs J. Allen (-0.3 GSAx in 3 GP, 89.6% SV).
- The Senators are the hotter team by points pace (4-1-0 over their 5 games so far).
- The Devils' PDO is 0.945 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
OTT
vs NSH · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
L. Ullmark
1 day rest.889 last start63:43 played
Backup Samuel Ersson · -0.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Pinto21:41
- T. Stützle26:06
- D. Batherson19:45
- F. Zetterlund08:30
- N. Cousins09:58
- M. Amadio15:47
- D. Cozens20:16
- C. Giroux18:42
- S. Halliday07:57
- W. Foegele09:17
- R. Greig20:13
- A. Burakovsky11:44
Defence · 6
- J. Spence24:30
- C. Yakemchuk19:52
- N. Matinpalo15:55
- T. Kleven21:06
- T. Chabot28:43
- H. Stanley08:58
NJD
vs VAN · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
J. Allen
1 day rest.952 last start60:00 played
Backup Nico Daws · -2.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Glass14:06
- N. Hischier18:59
- E. Rodrigues13:56
- T. Meier16:53
- A. Mantha09:40
- J. Bratt16:15
- J. Boqvist12:29
- L. Evangelista18:57
- A. Gritsyuk12:57
- J. Hughes16:28
- D. Mercer14:11
- A. Lombardi14:06
Defence · 6
- B. Dillon16:37
- D. Hamilton19:16
- B. Pesce22:38
- L. Hughes23:13
- D. Chisholm14:47
- J. Siegenthaler19:37
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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