TACTICAL
The Kraken own the underlying play
The Kraken own the underlying play — 47.7% 5v5 xG vs 33.8%.
Preview · SEA at PHI
Kraken at Flyers: no daylight between these two
The model's leanTue, Oct 13
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 13, 9:03 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects SEA 3.0 - 3.1 PHI, which makes this about as close to a pick'em as you'll find. Philadelphia gets the narrow nod at home, but the underlying play points the other way.
Seattle comes in as the hotter team by points pace, going 4-2-0 over its six games so far. Philadelphia is underwater at -20 goal differential over its seven games.
The bigger story is who controls the game. The Kraken own the underlying play, with a five-on-five expected goals share of 47.7% against 33.8% for the Flyers. Seattle also takes 43.3% of the shot attempts, so expect territorial tilt toward its end. Philadelphia's share is 38.1%.
The luck is lopsided too. Philadelphia's combined shooting and save percentage is 0.948, which is running cold and due for positive regression. Seattle's sits at 1.098, running hot, so some regression should be expected there as well.
In goal, both goalies have appeared in four games. J. Daccord has saved 1.3 goals above expected. J. Woll has saved 2.2. J. Daccord's save percentage is 91.3%, and J. Woll's is 91.4%, which is effectively the same.
The verdict is a near coin flip. Seattle controls the play, Philadelphia is due for better luck, and the two goalies are close.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
PHI 52%
52%
PHI
Model favorite
48%
52%
SEA50PHI
PHI by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score SEA 3.0–3.1 PHI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
SEA← edge
edge →PHI
47.7%33.8%
43.3%38.1%
3.072.00
3.373.90
4.331.14
2.834.00
1.0980.948
SEA holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.098 vs 0.948) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 6–7
SEA
4-2-0
+9 GD · 1d rest
PHI
0-5-2
-20 GD · 1d rest
1.098
SEA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.948
PHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Kraken drive Corsi at 43.3%
The Kraken drive Corsi at 43.3% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGPHI
Regression watch: Flyers
The Flyers' PDO is 0.948 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGSEA
Regression watch: Kraken
The Kraken's PDO is 1.098 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Kraken own the underlying play — 47.7% 5v5 xG vs 33.8%.
- The Kraken drive Corsi at 43.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.948 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.098 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Kraken own the underlying play — 47.7% 5v5 xG vs 33.8%.
- The Kraken drive Corsi at 43.3% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Daccord (+1.3 GSAx in 4 GP, 91.3% SV) vs J. Woll (+2.2 GSAx in 4 GP, 91.4% SV).
- The Kraken are the hotter team by points pace (4-2-0 over their 6 games so far).
- The Flyers are underwater at -20 goal differential over their 7 games so far.
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.948 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
SEA
vs WSH · Sun, Oct 11
Expected in goal
J. Daccord
1 day rest.917 last start60:00 played
Backup Philipp Grubauer · +1.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Eberle18:24
- C. Stephenson18:16
- M. Beniers16:20
- M. Samoskevich14:21
- J. McCann15:36
- R. Winterton10:45
- B. Catton12:49
- S. Wright12:25
- B. Meyers13:06
- B. McMann18:58
- K. Kakko12:15
- F. Gaudreau15:51
Defence · 6
- A. Larsson24:43
- J. Mahura13:00
- V. Dunn24:12
- R. Evans20:02
- V. Ottavainen10:19
- B. Montour24:38
PHI
vs CAR · Sun, Oct 11
Expected in goal
J. Woll
1 day rest.867 last start59:50 played
Backup Dan Vladar · -3.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Couturier16:37
- C. Dvorak17:23
- N. Cates13:27
- M. Michkov12:54
- T. Zegras16:05
- N. Acciari15:06
- M. Bunting10:25
- T. Foerster17:36
- O. Tippett15:05
- D. Barkey15:19
- C. Grundstrom12:11
- P. Martone15:12
Defence · 6
- D.Jiricek14:14
- T. Sanheim21:43
- J. Drysdale24:21
- N. Seeler22:06
- S. Benoit15:58
- O. Bonk16:28
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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