TACTICAL
The Lightning drive Corsi at 56.0%
The Lightning drive Corsi at 56.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Preview · TBL at NYR
Lightning at Rangers: a true toss-up
The model's leanTue, Oct 13
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 13, 9:18 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a TBL 3.2 - 3.1 NYR game with the Lightning at 52% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- The Lightning drive Corsi at 56.0% . The Lightning drive Corsi at 56.0% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Rangers. The Rangers' PDO is 1.043 — running hot, expect some regression.
- A true toss-up. Win probability splits 48%–52% — margins decide this one.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | TBL | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 56.6% | 54.4% |
| Corsi% | 56.0% | 46.7% |
| PDO | 1.009 | 1.043 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Lightning drive Corsi at 56.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Rangers' PDO is 1.043 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: A. Vasilevskiy (+1.0 GSAx in 4 GP, 89.2% SV) vs D. Garand (+1.7 GSAx in 3 GP, 94.5% SV).
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:15 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
TBL 52%
52%
TBL
Model favorite
52%
48%
TBL50NYR
TBL by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score TBL 3.2–3.1 NYR; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
TBL← edge
edge →NYR
56.6%54.4%
56.0%46.7%
3.503.41
2.682.86
3.203.29
2.401.86
1.0091.043
TBL holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.009 vs 1.043) says NYR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 5–7
TBL
4-1-0
+4 GD · 2d rest
NYR
5-2-0
+10 GD · 1d rest
1.009
TBL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.043
NYR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGNYR
Regression watch: Rangers
The Rangers' PDO is 1.043 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A true toss-up
Win probability splits 48%–52% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Lightning drive Corsi at 56.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Rangers' PDO is 1.043 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Lightning drive Corsi at 56.0% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: A. Vasilevskiy (+1.0 GSAx in 4 GP, 89.2% SV) vs D. Garand (+1.7 GSAx in 3 GP, 94.5% SV).
- The Rangers' PDO is 1.043 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
TBL
vs NYI · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
A. Vasilevskiy
2 days rest.870 last start60:00 played
Backup Dennis Hildeby · +0.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- B. Point18:57
- Z. Girgensons15:13
- P. Holmberg17:37
- B. Hagel21:32
- S. Sabourin09:29
- J. Guentzel19:29
- A. Cirelli18:04
- N. Kucherov17:46
- G. Goncalves18:13
- C. Geekie11:28
- I. Mikheyev15:16
Defence · 7
- M. Crozier16:30
- R. McDonagh15:56
- C. D'Astous13:30
- J. Carlson20:43
- V. Hedman10:34
- E. Cernak19:01
- J. Moser17:01
NYR
vs VAN · Sun, Oct 11
Expected in goal
D. Garand
1 day rest.905 last start60:00 played
Backup Igor Shesterkin · +6.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Miller18:29
- A. Lafrenière19:19
- P. Dorofeyev18:09
- E. Tolvanen12:07
- T. Kartye15:39
- O. Bjorkstrand10:18
- N. Laba13:10
- J. Chmelar09:28
- W. Cuylle15:39
- C. Beaudoin10:44
- M. Zibanejad19:27
- G. Perreault18:53
Defence · 6
- B. Schneider16:47
- S. Durzi19:08
- A. Smits17:32
- A. Fox21:13
- M. Pettersson21:38
- V. Gavrikov20:20
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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