WARNINGOTT
L. Ullmark on a back-to-back
L. Ullmark projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · STL at OTT
The Senators are the model's lean over the Blues — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanTue, Oct 13
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 13, 9:18 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a STL 2.8 - 3.2 OTT game with the Senators at 56% win probability.
Keys to the game
- L. Ullmark on a back-to-back. L. Ullmark projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
- Rest edge. The Blues come in on 2 days of rest; the other side on 0.
- The Blues drive Corsi at 52.2% . The Blues drive Corsi at 52.2% — expect territorial tilt.
Form Check
- The Senators are the hotter team by points pace (5-1-0 over their 6 games so far).
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | STL | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 52.0% | 52.2% |
| Corsi% | 52.2% | 43.7% |
| PDO | 0.965 | 1.051 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Blues drive Corsi at 52.2% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Senators' PDO is 1.051 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Blues' PDO is 0.965 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Rest edge. The Senators come in on 0 days of rest; the Blues on 2 days.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: J. Binnington (-4.7 GSAx in 2 GP, 84.7% SV) vs L. Ullmark (+5.9 GSAx in 5 GP, 94.8% SV).
- L. Ullmark has the GSAx edge — 10.6 goals above his counterpart this season.
- L. Ullmark is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:30 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
OTT 56%
56%
OTT
Model favorite
44%
56%
STL50OTT
OTT by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score STL 2.8–3.2 OTT; 17% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
STL← edge
edge →OTT
52.0%52.2%
52.2%43.7%
2.793.12
2.572.86
2.803.00
3.202.00
0.9651.051
OTT holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.965 vs 1.051) says OTT has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 5–6
STL
2-2-1
-2 GD · 2d rest
OTT
5-1-0
+7 GD · 0d rest
0.965
STL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.051
OTT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Blues drive Corsi at 52.2%
The Blues drive Corsi at 52.2% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGOTT
Regression watch: Senators
The Senators' PDO is 1.051 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGSTL
Regression watch: Blues
The Blues' PDO is 0.965 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Blues drive Corsi at 52.2% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Senators' PDO is 1.051 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Blues' PDO is 0.965 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Blues drive Corsi at 52.2% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Binnington (-4.7 GSAx in 2 GP, 84.7% SV) vs L. Ullmark (+5.9 GSAx in 5 GP, 94.8% SV).
- L. Ullmark has the GSAx edge — 10.6 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Senators are the hotter team by points pace (5-1-0 over their 6 games so far).
- The Senators' PDO is 1.051 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Blues have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
STL
vs CBJ · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
J. Binnington
2 days rest.870 last start59:56 played
Backup Joel Hofer · +2.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- D. Dvorsky12:06
- R. Thomas18:15
- J. Snuggerud15:13
- P. Suter12:56
- J. Berggren17:02
- R. Johnston09:06
- Z. Dean09:51
- J. Neighbours13:26
- C. McMichael18:07
- D. Holloway16:34
- M. McTavish18:08
- P. Buchnevich17:02
Defence · 6
- P. Broberg23:19
- C. Fowler21:46
- B. Carlo18:05
- A. Jiricek15:50
- C. Parayko23:04
- J. Barron16:14
OTT
vs NJD · Mon, Oct 12
Expected in goal
L. Ullmark
back-to-back.967 last start60:00 played
Backup Samuel Ersson · -0.9 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- S. Pinto21:20
- T. Stützle20:46
- D. Batherson17:33
- F. Zetterlund11:26
- N. Cousins09:00
- M. Amadio17:18
- D. Cozens17:40
- C. Giroux18:46
- S. Halliday08:26
- W. Foegele12:06
- R. Greig16:22
- A. Burakovsky15:03
Defence · 6
- J. Spence21:31
- C. Yakemchuk22:25
- N. Matinpalo02:19
- T. Kleven23:37
- T. Chabot27:53
- H. Stanley12:29
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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