TACTICAL
The Islanders own the underlying play
The Islanders own the underlying play — 46.9% 5v5 xG vs 40.1%.
Preview · VAN at NYI
The Islanders are the model's lean over the Canucks — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanTue, Oct 13
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 13, 9:18 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a VAN 3.0 - 3.4 NYI game with the Islanders at 57% win probability.
Keys to the game
- The Islanders own the underlying play . The Islanders own the underlying play — 46.9% 5v5 xG vs 40.1%.
- The Islanders drive Corsi at 47.0% . The Islanders drive Corsi at 47.0% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Islanders. The Islanders' PDO is 1.039 — running hot, expect some regression.
Form Check
- The Canucks are underwater at -11 goal differential over their 7 games so far.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | VAN | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 40.1% | 46.9% |
| Corsi% | 43.2% | 47.0% |
| PDO | 1.009 | 1.039 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Islanders own the underlying play — 46.9% 5v5 xG vs 40.1%.
- The Islanders drive Corsi at 47.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Islanders' PDO is 1.039 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: K. Lankinen (-13.3 GSAx in 6 GP, 78.6% SV) vs I. Sorokin (+3.7 GSAx in 4 GP, 93.7% SV).
- I. Sorokin has the GSAx edge — 17.0 goals above his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:45 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
NYI 57%
57%
NYI
Model favorite
43%
57%
VAN50NYI
NYI by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score VAN 3.0–3.4 NYI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
VAN← edge
edge →NYI
40.1%46.9%
43.2%47.0%
2.342.82
3.503.20
3.433.20
5.002.60
1.0091.039
NYI holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.009 vs 1.039) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 5–7
VAN
2-5-0
-11 GD · 1d rest
NYI
2-3-0
+3 GD · 2d rest
1.009
VAN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.039
NYI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Islanders drive Corsi at 47.0%
The Islanders drive Corsi at 47.0% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGNYI
Regression watch: Islanders
The Islanders' PDO is 1.039 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICALNYI
I. Sorokin was beatable last time out
I. Sorokin stopped just 84.0% in his last start.
Where the edges live
- The Islanders own the underlying play — 46.9% 5v5 xG vs 40.1%.
- The Islanders drive Corsi at 47.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Islanders' PDO is 1.039 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Islanders own the underlying play — 46.9% 5v5 xG vs 40.1%.
- The Islanders drive Corsi at 47.0% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: K. Lankinen (-13.3 GSAx in 6 GP, 78.6% SV) vs I. Sorokin (+3.7 GSAx in 4 GP, 93.7% SV).
- I. Sorokin has the GSAx edge — 17.0 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Canucks are underwater at -11 goal differential over their 7 games so far.
- The Islanders' PDO is 1.039 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
VAN
vs NYR · Sun, Oct 11
Expected in goal
K. Lankinen
1 day rest.760 last start60:00 played
Backup Leevi Merilainen · +0.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Boeser18:40
- B. Gallagher13:00
- D. O'Connor16:07
- M. Rossi15:31
- E. Pettersson17:04
- P. Cotter16:09
- A. Räty12:37
- M. Sasson13:12
- J. DeBrusk12:25
- J. Lekkerimäki14:52
- L. Ohgren15:23
- L. Karlsson11:55
Defence · 6
- L. Schenn13:40
- T. Willander22:14
- Z. Buium21:58
- F. Hronek27:12
- E. Pettersson21:30
- G. Brisebois12:44
NYI
vs TBL · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
I. Sorokin
2 days rest.840 last start59:49 played
Backup Semyon Varlamov · +1.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Schenn17:14
- A. Duclair13:17
- B. Horvat20:09
- K. Palmieri15:16
- V. Eklund13:25
- J. Pageau14:41
- E. Heineman13:41
- C. Cizikas10:10
- M. Maccelli14:23
- C. Ritchie13:37
- O. Palat15:29
- S. Holmstrom13:18
Defence · 6
- A. Pelech21:11
- R. Pulock19:14
- L. Stanley19:38
- S. Mayfield14:45
- M. Schaefer27:01
- T. DeAngelo16:33
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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