TACTICAL
The Penguins own the underlying play
The Penguins own the underlying play — 49.3% 5v5 xG vs 39.7%.
Preview · PIT at CHI
The Penguins are the model's lean over the Blackhawks — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanTue, Oct 13
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 13, 9:18 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Pittsburgh is the model's pick, and the case rests on how the two teams have played at five-on-five more than on the standings. The Penguins have been the better side on the ice, while the Blackhawks' results have run colder than their play.
The model projects the Penguins to beat the Blackhawks 3.4 to 3.0. That gives Pittsburgh a 55% win probability, a lean rather than a lock.
The Penguins are also the hotter team by points pace, with a 3-2-1 record over their 6 games so far. Chicago's goal differential is -14 over those same games.
The five-on-five numbers make the strongest case. Expected goals is a shot-quality estimate of how many goals a team's chances should produce, and Pittsburgh holds 49.3% of it at five-on-five. Chicago sits at 39.7%, which is why the model says the Penguins own the underlying play. Shot attempts, every shot aimed at the net, point the same way. Pittsburgh holds 49.7% of them, and Chicago's share is 43.4%, so expect the Penguins to control the territory.
The Blackhawks' luck is the other half of the picture. Their combined on-ice shooting and save percentage, which the model tracks as PDO, sits at 0.961. That is cold, and the model expects positive regression to come for Chicago. Pittsburgh's figure is 1.029, which is hot, so the model expects some regression there too.
In goal, A. Silovs has allowed more than expected, with goals saved above expected at -0.9 over 4 games. His save percentage is 88.5%, the same mark S. Knight has posted. S. Knight's goals saved above expected is -0.3 over the same 4 games, so the goalies do not separate the teams on this evidence.
Pittsburgh is the better bet on the evidence, but the lean is modest, and the luck figures on both benches are where this one could go against the model.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
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Win probability
The model's lean
PIT 55%
55%
PIT
Model favorite
55%
45%
PIT50CHI
PIT by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score PIT 3.4–3.0 CHI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
PIT← edge
edge →CHI
49.3%39.7%
49.7%43.4%
3.152.46
3.243.74
3.502.00
2.674.33
1.0290.961
PIT holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.029 vs 0.961) says PIT has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 6
PIT
3-2-1
+5 GD · 2d rest
CHI
1-5-0
-14 GD · 2d rest
1.029
PIT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.961
CHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Penguins drive Corsi at 49.7%
The Penguins drive Corsi at 49.7% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGCHI
Regression watch: Blackhawks
The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.961 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGPIT
Regression watch: Penguins
The Penguins' PDO is 1.029 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Penguins own the underlying play — 49.3% 5v5 xG vs 39.7%.
- The Penguins drive Corsi at 49.7% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.961 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Penguins' PDO is 1.029 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Penguins own the underlying play — 49.3% 5v5 xG vs 39.7%.
- The Penguins drive Corsi at 49.7% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: A. Silovs (-0.9 GSAx in 4 GP, 88.5% SV) vs S. Knight (-0.3 GSAx in 4 GP, 88.5% SV).
- The Penguins are the hotter team by points pace (3-2-1 over their 6 games so far).
- The Blackhawks are underwater at -14 goal differential over their 6 games so far.
- The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.961 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
PIT
vs DAL · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
A. Silovs
2 days rest.960 last start64:52 played
Backup Sergei Murashov · +3.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- N. Robertson11:01
- B. Rust20:55
- T. Novak15:35
- C. Dewar12:14
- H. Lapierre11:25
- E. Soderblom08:22
- B. Lizotte12:34
- E. Chinakhov15:54
- R. Rakell22:15
- E. Malkin19:27
- B. Kindel19:28
- S. Crosby23:13
Defence · 6
- K. Korczak16:48
- S. Stastney12:58
- S. Girard21:08
- K. Letang21:23
- E. Karlsson27:10
- D. Carlile17:18
CHI
vs CAR · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
S. Knight
2 days rest.872 last start57:49 played
Backup Arvid Soderblom · -2.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- R. Donato12:17
- O. Moore12:57
- J. Greenway14:50
- A. Frondell18:06
- R. Greene19:46
- C. Smith15:01
- D. Toninato09:38
- T. Bertuzzi17:16
- N. Lardis15:00
- R. Kantserov15:48
- T. Teravainen14:05
- P. Kane18:17
Defence · 6
- S. Rinzel18:43
- B. Byram25:40
- I. Cole17:24
- W. Kaiser17:07
- A. Levshunov18:12
- A. Vlasic18:04
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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