WARNINGMIN
J. Wallstedt on a back-to-back
J. Wallstedt projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · MIN at WPG
Wild at Jets: a true toss-up
The model's leanTue, Oct 13
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 13, 9:18 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Wild and Jets are about as even as two teams get. The model finds little to separate them, and the small lean it does show goes to Minnesota.
Both sides project to score 3.2 goals, and the Wild have a 51% chance to win. Treat it as a coin flip with a faint tilt, not a pick.
Winnipeg has the clearest edge on paper. The Jets arrive with 3 days of rest, while the Wild have none.
The more telling numbers favor Minnesota. The Wild own 53.0% of the expected goals at 5-on-5, a measure of the quality chances each team creates, against 49.3% for the Jets. Shot attempts, which count misses and blocks too, tilt the same way but less sharply: the Wild hold 49.9% to Winnipeg's 46.1%.
The goalie matchup is where the gap widens. J. Wallstedt has stopped 93.3% of shots in 6 games. He has also kept out 6.2 goals more than the shots he faced should have allowed. C. Stevenson has stopped 87.2% of shots in 2 games, and has allowed 0.8 goals more than that workload should have produced. Over the season, that puts J. Wallstedt 7.0 goals ahead of his counterpart.
The catch is the schedule. J. Wallstedt is projected to start the second night of a back-to-back, so watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Wild have the better underlying play and the stronger goalie, and the Jets have the rest. Until the starter is confirmed, this stays a toss-up.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:15 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
MIN 51%
51%
MIN
Model favorite
51%
49%
MIN50WPG
MIN by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score MIN 3.2–3.2 WPG; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
MIN← edge
edge →WPG
53.0%49.3%
49.9%46.1%
3.463.16
3.073.25
3.172.60
1.833.00
0.9960.991
MIN holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.996 vs 0.991) says MIN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 5–6
MIN
4-1-1
+8 GD · 0d rest
WPG
3-1-1
-2 GD · 3d rest
0.996
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.991
WPG PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICALWPG
Rest edge
The Jets come in on 3 days of rest; the other side on 0.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
TACTICAL
The Wild own the underlying play
The Wild own the underlying play — 53.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.3%.
TACTICAL
The Wild drive Corsi at 49.9%
The Wild drive Corsi at 49.9% — expect territorial tilt.
Where the edges live
- The Wild own the underlying play — 53.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.3%.
- The Wild drive Corsi at 49.9% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Wild own the underlying play — 53.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.3%.
- The Wild drive Corsi at 49.9% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Wallstedt (+6.2 GSAx in 6 GP, 93.3% SV) vs C. Stevenson (-0.8 GSAx in 2 GP, 87.2% SV).
- J. Wallstedt has the GSAx edge — 7.0 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Jets have 3 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
MIN
vs VGK · Mon, Oct 12
Expected in goal
J. Wallstedt
back-to-back.913 last start60:00 played
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- B. Brink10:20
- M. Boldy19:34
- Y. Trenin12:34
- J. Eriksson Ek21:23
- B. Coleman17:34
- D. Yurov10:41
- R. Hartman15:19
- M. McCarron16:58
- M. Shabanov14:07
- R. Lorenz09:00
- N. Sturm03:20
- K. Kaprizov19:40
Defence · 6
- O. Maatta25:16
- Z. Bogosian15:41
- J. Brodin21:02
- Q. Hughes22:36
- J. Spurgeon23:32
- D. Hunt12:28
WPG
vs ANA · Fri, Oct 9
Expected in goal
C. Stevenson
3 days rest.750 last start56:08 played
Backup Stuart Skinner · +2.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- V. Namestnikov11:15
- A. Iafallo14:43
- G. Vilardi18:36
- A. Lowry13:28
- I. Rosen14:56
- M. Barron14:12
- C. Koepke07:32
- M. Scheifele22:18
- V. Björck17:33
- K. Connor23:56
- C. Perfetti22:20
- B. Lambert08:27
Defence · 6
- D. DeMelo21:40
- N. Pionk25:02
- H. Fleury15:26
- M. Ferraro19:58
- D. Samberg22:06
- T. Bauer08:24
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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