Avalanche at Stars: a genuine coin flip

Colorado is a slight favorite, and the model's projected score of 3.1 to 3.0 reads like a game that could land on either side. Neither team has a clean claim to the night. Every gap below is small, and it should be read that way.

Colorado's best argument is territory. The Avalanche take 53.8% of shot attempts at five-on-five, so expect them to spend more of the game pushing play than chasing it. Shot attempts count every shot aimed at the net, including blocked and missed ones, so this measures pressure rather than finishing.

Expected goals tells a closer story over the season. The model weights each chance by how likely it was to go in, and Colorado comes out at 55.8%. The Stars sit at 53.9%.

Both teams are also running hot on the luck side. PDO adds a team's on-ice shooting percentage to its save percentage, which makes it a rough gauge of how much fortune is inside the results. The Stars sit at 1.070. The Avalanche are a touch higher, at 1.071, and both should expect some regression.

Goaltending is where the matchup separates. J. Oettinger has stopped 96.3% of shots over four games. Measured against the shots he faced, that is +6.2 goals saved above expected, meaning he kept out more than his workload should have allowed. M. Blackwood, over the same four games, sits at -3.7 goals saved above expected, meaning he let in more goals than that workload should have allowed. Across the season, J. Oettinger is 9.9 goals above his counterpart.

That leaves the model close to where it started. Colorado's 52% chance is a lean, not a verdict. The goalie gap is the largest number on the page, and it rests on four games.

Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model