WARNINGVGK
C. Hart on a back-to-back
C. Hart projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · VGK at NSH
The Golden Knights are the model's lean over the Predators — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanTue, Oct 13
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 13, 9:25 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a VGK 3.3 - 2.9 NSH game with the Golden Knights at 56% win probability.
Keys to the game
- C. Hart on a back-to-back. C. Hart projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
- Rest edge. The Predators come in on 2 days of rest; the other side on 0.
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play. The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 58.3% 5v5 xG vs 44.5%.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | VGK | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 58.3% | 44.5% |
| Corsi% | 55.2% | 41.3% |
| PDO | 0.980 | 1.012 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 58.3% 5v5 xG vs 44.5%.
- The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 55.2% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.980 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Rest edge. The Predators come in on 2 days of rest; the Golden Knights on 0 days.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: C. Hart (+0.7 GSAx in 5 GP, 90.6% SV) vs M. Murray (+0.6 GSAx in 1 GP, 90.0% SV).
- C. Hart is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:45 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
VGK 56%
56%
VGK
Model favorite
56%
44%
VGK50NSH
VGK by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score VGK 3.3–2.9 NSH; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
VGK← edge
edge →NSH
58.3%44.5%
55.2%41.3%
3.602.48
2.583.10
3.432.80
2.572.60
0.9801.012
VGK holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.980 vs 1.012) says NSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 5–7
VGK
5-2-0
+7 GD · 0d rest
NSH
2-1-2
+0 GD · 2d rest
0.980
VGK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.012
NSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Golden Knights own the underlying play
The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 58.3% 5v5 xG vs 44.5%.
TACTICAL
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 55.2%
The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 55.2% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGVGK
Regression watch: Golden Knights
The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.980 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 58.3% 5v5 xG vs 44.5%.
- The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 55.2% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.980 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 58.3% 5v5 xG vs 44.5%.
- The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 55.2% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: C. Hart (+0.7 GSAx in 5 GP, 90.6% SV) vs M. Murray (+0.6 GSAx in 1 GP, 90.0% SV).
- C. Hart is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.980 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Predators have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
VGK
vs MIN · Mon, Oct 12
Expected in goal
C. Hart
back-to-back.889 last start58:16 played
Backup Adin Hill · -0.8 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- J. Eichel21:24
- M. Gatcomb09:43
- B. Howden15:18
- T. Connelly18:32
- N. Dowd11:38
- R. Lavoie10:53
- B. Bowman14:20
- T. Hertl18:53
- I. Barbashev17:17
- M. Stone20:03
- W. Karlsson17:11
- M. Marner21:30
Defence · 6
- B. McNabb17:37
- R. Andersson17:23
- J. Lauzon13:09
- N. Hanifin22:04
- S. Theodore22:24
- D. Coghlan12:08
NSH
vs OTT · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
M. Murray
2 days rest.900 last start64:57 played
Backup Juuse Saros · +0.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- F. Forsberg20:36
- A. Kerfoot14:50
- J. Drury19:08
- N. Hoglander12:33
- R. Schaefer10:43
- V. Pinchuk11:10
- M. Wood15:22
- R. Colton08:22
- J. Marchessault17:53
- A. Edstrom13:57
- R. O'Reilly22:07
- S. Stamkos19:01
Defence · 6
- A. Wilsby20:24
- J. Struble19:07
- N. Hague18:54
- N. Perbix18:22
- R. Josi24:19
- B. Skjei21:05
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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