TACTICAL
The Mammoth own the underlying play
The Mammoth own the underlying play — 60.5% 5v5 xG vs 45.5%.
Preview · TOR at UTA
The Mammoth are the model's lean over the Maple Leafs on the underlying numbers
The model's leanTue, Oct 13
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 13, 9:19 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Mammoth should beat the Maple Leafs, and the case rests on what happens while the puck is in play. Utah has controlled five-on-five play more than Toronto, and the model's lean follows from that.
The model gives Utah a 62% chance to win, a clear edge rather than a sure thing. Its projected score has the Mammoth at 3.7 goals and the Maple Leafs at 2.9.
The most telling gap is in expected goals, the model's estimate of the quality of chances each team creates and allows. Utah leads that comparison clearly. Utah also leads in shot attempts, which count every shot aimed at the net, including blocked and missed ones. Expect the Mammoth to hold the territory and Toronto to spend long stretches defending.
Season five-on-five numbers:
| Metric | Maple Leafs | Mammoth |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 45.5% | 60.5% |
| Shot attempt share | 49.3% | 57.2% |
| PDO (shooting plus save percentage) | 0.993 | 0.998 |
In goal, the matchup looks closer on the surface. S. Bobrovsky and K. Vejmelka both sit at a 90.7% save percentage. Bobrovsky holds the stronger goals-saved-above-expected mark, at +3.8 over 4 games played. Vejmelka is at +1.7 over 5. Both are small samples, so treat the gap as a early signal rather than a verdict.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 9:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
UTA 62%
62%
UTA
Model favorite
38%
62%
TOR50UTA
UTA by 24 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score TOR 2.9–3.7 UTA; 15% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
TOR← edge
edge →UTA
45.5%60.5%
49.3%57.2%
3.164.13
3.792.70
3.333.67
2.832.50
0.9930.998
UTA holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 0.998) says UTA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 6
TOR
3-2-1
+2 GD · 2d rest
UTA
4-2-0
+7 GD · 2d rest
0.993
TOR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.998
UTA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 57.2%
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 57.2% — expect territorial tilt.
TACTICALUTA
The model's clear lean
The Mammoth project at 62% win probability.
Where the edges live
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 60.5% 5v5 xG vs 45.5%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 57.2% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 60.5% 5v5 xG vs 45.5%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 57.2% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: S. Bobrovsky (+3.8 GSAx in 4 GP, 90.7% SV) vs K. Vejmelka (+1.7 GSAx in 5 GP, 90.7% SV).
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
TOR
vs COL · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
S. Bobrovsky
2 days rest.909 last start59:55 played
Backup Anthony Stolarz · +0.4 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- C. Sissons16:50
- N. Paul17:15
- B. Duhaime10:58
- B. Groulx09:05
- A. Matthews22:06
- E. Cowan16:07
- T. Blueger13:59
- K. Marchenko16:53
- W. Nylander19:51
- G. McKenna15:21
- J. Roslovic15:21
Defence · 7
- N. Blankenburg16:11
- C. Tanev03:29
- J. McCabe23:40
- T. Stecher18:33
- D. Raddysh21:13
- M. Rielly18:48
- O. Ekman-Larsson14:25
UTA
vs BUF · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
K. Vejmelka
2 days rest.958 last start59:54 played
Backup Sebastian Cossa · -0.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- N. Schmaltz19:12
- C. Keller18:06
- D. Guenther17:18
- V. Trocheck17:15
- J. McBain12:09
- B. Hayton12:30
- D. But10:29
- K. Yamamoto12:28
- L. Crouse14:57
- A. Lee12:08
- K. Stenlund13:50
- L. Cooley20:07
Defence · 6
- J. Marino19:06
- A. Peeke15:19
- D. Simashev13:25
- M. Weegar20:23
- N. Schmidt19:37
- M. Sergachev25:23
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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