TACTICAL
The Ducks own the underlying play
The Ducks own the underlying play — 50.8% 5v5 xG vs 44.5%.
Preview · CGY at ANA
The Ducks are the model's lean over the Flames — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanTue, Oct 13
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 13, 9:25 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a CGY 3.0 - 3.4 ANA game with the Ducks at 57% win probability.
Keys to the game
- The Ducks own the underlying play . The Ducks own the underlying play — 50.8% 5v5 xG vs 44.5%.
- The Flames drive Corsi at 54.0% . The Flames drive Corsi at 54.0% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Flames. The Flames' PDO is 0.873 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Form Check
- The Ducks are the hotter team by points pace (4-1-0 over their 5 games so far).
- The Flames are underwater at -19 goal differential over their 5 games so far.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | CGY | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 44.5% | 50.8% |
| Corsi% | 54.0% | 47.7% |
| PDO | 0.873 | 1.011 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Ducks own the underlying play — 50.8% 5v5 xG vs 44.5%.
- The Flames drive Corsi at 54.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Flames' PDO is 0.873 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: D. Wolf (-6.5 GSAx in 3 GP, 81.6% SV) vs V. Husso (+0.9 GSAx in 2 GP, 93.5% SV).
- V. Husso has the GSAx edge — 7.4 goals above his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 9:45 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
ANA 57%
57%
ANA
Model favorite
43%
57%
CGY50ANA
ANA by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score CGY 3.0–3.4 ANA; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CGY← edge
edge →ANA
44.5%50.8%
54.0%47.7%
2.642.85
3.292.76
1.603.60
5.402.60
0.8731.011
ANA holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.873 vs 1.011) says ANA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 5
CGY
0-5-0
-19 GD · 2d rest
ANA
4-1-0
+5 GD · 2d rest
0.873
CGY PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.011
ANA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Flames drive Corsi at 54.0%
The Flames drive Corsi at 54.0% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGCGY
Regression watch: Flames
The Flames' PDO is 0.873 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Ducks own the underlying play — 50.8% 5v5 xG vs 44.5%.
- The Flames drive Corsi at 54.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Flames' PDO is 0.873 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Ducks own the underlying play — 50.8% 5v5 xG vs 44.5%.
- The Flames drive Corsi at 54.0% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: D. Wolf (-6.5 GSAx in 3 GP, 81.6% SV) vs V. Husso (+0.9 GSAx in 2 GP, 93.5% SV).
- V. Husso has the GSAx edge — 7.4 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Ducks are the hotter team by points pace (4-1-0 over their 5 games so far).
- The Flames are underwater at -19 goal differential over their 5 games so far.
- The Flames' PDO is 0.873 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CGY
vs ANA · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
D. Wolf
2 days rest.857 last start57:11 played
Backup Devin Cooley · -4.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- M. Backlund19:24
- M. Frost16:58
- Y. Sharangovich22:11
- R. Strome13:39
- M. Coronato19:45
- J. Castagna09:51
- A. Klapka11:35
- A. Suniev15:49
- M. Tsyplakov11:28
- M. Pospisil11:02
- J. Farabee21:12
- M. Gridin14:54
Defence · 6
- K. Bahl21:26
- Z. Parekh17:48
- Z. Whitecloud19:01
- Y. Kuznetsov18:19
- J. Middleton12:40
- S. Nemec23:37
ANA
vs CGY · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
V. Husso
2 days rest.931 last start60:00 played
Backup Lukas Dostal · -1.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Colangelo14:19
- N. Nesterenko14:04
- A. Killorn18:37
- R. Poehling11:49
- J. Caulfield13:51
- J. Malott11:37
- T. Washe16:40
- B. Sennecke20:37
- C. Gauthier02:18
- M. Granlund19:23
- F. Vatrano11:48
- L. Carlsson20:18
Defence · 6
- J. LaCombe17:01
- T. Mitchell17:32
- N. Warren21:14
- T. Hinds19:21
- T. Luneau23:42
- P. Mintyukov19:49
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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