TACTICAL
The Oilers own the underlying play
The Oilers own the underlying play — 58.7% 5v5 xG vs 48.6%.
Preview · EDM at LAK
Oilers at Kings: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanTue, Oct 13
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 13, 9:25 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a EDM 3.1 - 3.1 LAK game with the Oilers at 51% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- The Oilers own the underlying play . The Oilers own the underlying play — 58.7% 5v5 xG vs 48.6%.
- Goalie Weakness: Kings. Below-average on high-danger saves. Prioritize quality over quantity.
- Regression watch: Kings. The Kings' PDO is 0.951 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Form Check
- The Oilers are the hotter team by points pace (4-0-1 over their 5 games so far).
- The Kings are underwater at -7 goal differential over their 4 games so far.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | EDM | LAK |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 58.7% | 48.6% |
| Corsi% | 51.4% | 48.7% |
| PDO | 1.067 | 0.951 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Oilers own the underlying play — 58.7% 5v5 xG vs 48.6%.
Regression Watch
- The Kings' PDO is 0.951 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.067 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: T. Jarry (-3.6 GSAx in 2 GP, 83.7% SV) vs D. Kuemper (-3.8 GSAx in 3 GP, 86.8% SV).
Players to Watch
Key Matchups
LAK
- Their goalie (Darcy Kuemper) leaks HD — 68.8% HD SV. Get to the slot.
- Most goals from right-circle (6G on 43 shots, 14%) — deny that lane
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 10:30 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
EDM 51%
51%
EDM
Model favorite
51%
49%
EDM50LAK
EDM by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score EDM 3.1–3.1 LAK; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
EDM← edge
edge →LAK
58.7%48.6%
51.4%48.7%
3.292.53
2.322.67
5.002.50
3.404.25
1.0670.951
EDM holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.067 vs 0.951) says EDM has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 4–5
EDM
4-0-1
+8 GD · 2d rest
LAK
0-2-2
-7 GD · 2d rest
1.067
EDM PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.951
LAK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICALLAK
Goalie Weakness: Kings
Below-average on high-danger saves. Prioritize quality over quantity.
Their goalie (Darcy Kuemper) leaks HD — 68.8% HD SV. Get to the slot.
WARNINGLAK
Regression watch: Kings
The Kings' PDO is 0.951 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGEDM
Regression watch: Oilers
The Oilers' PDO is 1.067 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Oilers own the underlying play — 58.7% 5v5 xG vs 48.6%.
Regression watch
- The Kings' PDO is 0.951 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.067 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Oilers own the underlying play — 58.7% 5v5 xG vs 48.6%.
- Goalie matchup: T. Jarry (-3.6 GSAx in 2 GP, 83.7% SV) vs D. Kuemper (-3.8 GSAx in 3 GP, 86.8% SV).
- The Oilers are the hotter team by points pace (4-0-1 over their 5 games so far).
- The Kings are underwater at -7 goal differential over their 4 games so far.
- The Kings' PDO is 0.951 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
EDM
vs SJS · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
T. Jarry
2 days rest.950 last start60:00 played
Backup Devon Levi · -2.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- T. Frederic09:53
- J. Dickinson13:43
- F. Hallander14:11
- M. Joseph14:42
- A. Formenton14:02
- L. Draisaitl21:49
- K. Kapanen17:30
- O. Michaels14:15
- I. Howard08:59
- J. Samanski06:19
- V. Podkolzin20:48
- C. McDavid24:04
Defence · 6
- E. Bouchard24:07
- C. Murphy24:23
- R. Shea24:01
- M. Ekholm22:46
- T. Emberson11:10
- S. Mukhamadullin11:18
LAK
vs VGK · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
D. Kuemper
2 days rest.938 last start61:20 played
Backup Anton Forsberg · -3.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Kempe19:34
- A. Panarin21:08
- T. Moore17:27
- A. Laferriere19:05
- S. Laughton15:39
- J. Wright10:24
- J. Armia12:33
- A. Lee10:47
- Q. Byfield20:02
- E. Haula17:08
- S. Helenius09:05
- C. Perry13:52
Defence · 6
- B. Dumoulin19:16
- C. Ceci21:35
- J. Edmundson15:28
- D. Doughty24:01
- M. Anderson21:59
- B. Clarke16:55
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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