TACTICAL
The Bruins own the underlying play
The Bruins own the underlying play — 46.1% 5v5 xG vs 37.5%.
Preview · BOS at SJS
Bruins at Sharks: too close to call
The model's leanTue, Oct 13
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 13, 9:26 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Call this one a coin flip. Boston and San Jose are nearly even, and the factors pull in opposite directions.
Boston owns the underlying play. At five-on-five, the Bruins hold 46.1% of the expected goals this season, a measure of the quality of chances each team creates. San Jose trails well behind on that measure. Boston also holds 50.9% of shot attempts, and that kind of territorial tilt usually means more time spent in the offensive zone.
The Sharks are the team due for a turn. Their combined shooting and save percentage is 0.947, which the model reads as running cold and due for positive regression. Boston's is 1.053, so the Bruins are running hot, and some of that is likely to come back down.
In goal, J. Swayman has been the stronger goalie so far. He has a 93.2% save percentage in 5 games. On goals saved above expected, he sits at +6.5, meaning he has kept out more pucks than his shot totals predicted. J. Swayman sits 7.7 goals above his counterpart this season.
Y. Askarov has played 4 games and has an 86.0% save percentage. On goals saved above expected, he is at -1.2.
Boston has the better play and the better goalie so far. San Jose has regression working in its favor. That tug-of-war is why the model will not pick a side.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 11:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
SJS 50%
50%
SJS
Model favorite
50%
50%
BOS50SJS
SJS by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score BOS 3.2–3.2 SJS; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
BOS← edge
edge →SJS
46.1%37.5%
50.9%43.5%
2.912.12
3.403.54
3.332.60
2.173.40
1.0530.947
BOS holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.053 vs 0.947) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 5–6
BOS
4-2-0
+7 GD · 2d rest
SJS
3-2-0
-4 GD · 2d rest
1.053
BOS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.947
SJS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Bruins drive Corsi at 50.9%
The Bruins drive Corsi at 50.9% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGSJS
Regression watch: Sharks
The Sharks' PDO is 0.947 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGBOS
Regression watch: Bruins
The Bruins' PDO is 1.053 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Bruins own the underlying play — 46.1% 5v5 xG vs 37.5%.
- The Bruins drive Corsi at 50.9% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.947 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Bruins' PDO is 1.053 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Bruins own the underlying play — 46.1% 5v5 xG vs 37.5%.
- The Bruins drive Corsi at 50.9% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Swayman (+6.5 GSAx in 5 GP, 93.2% SV) vs Y. Askarov (-1.2 GSAx in 4 GP, 86.0% SV).
- J. Swayman has the GSAx edge — 7.7 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.947 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
BOS
vs PHI · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
J. Swayman
2 days rest.933 last start59:30 played
Backup Michael DiPietro · +0.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Peterka14:02
- C. Mittelstadt14:25
- P. Zacha19:16
- E. Lindholm13:47
- M. Geekie16:40
- J. Hagens14:48
- M. Kastelic11:24
- M. Poitras12:14
- T. Jeannot12:49
- D. Pastrnak19:29
- M. Khusnutdinov13:27
- F. Minten14:25
Defence · 6
- M. Lohrei17:41
- W. Borgen18:13
- H. Lindholm18:28
- F. Brunet18:25
- C. Clifton22:48
- N. Zadorov22:37
SJS
vs EDM · Sat, Oct 10
Expected in goal
Y. Askarov
2 days rest.850 last start56:28 played
Backup Alex Nedeljkovic · +0.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- W. Smith20:11
- A. Wennberg20:32
- B. Goodrow10:15
- M. Marchment17:46
- I. Stenberg18:09
- K. Sherwood16:15
- C. Graf14:13
- Z. Ostapchuk08:01
- M. Celebrini21:59
- T. Toffoli11:25
- M. Misa12:44
- I. Chernyshov11:03
Defence · 6
- S. Dickinson16:40
- M. Kesselring19:03
- D. Orlov18:18
- D. Nurse21:56
- L. Cagnoni20:21
- J. Trouba20:41
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
Keep going