Motion-blurred skater in a New Jersey Devils sweater

Breakdown · WSH at NJD

Devils pull away from the Capitals

FinalThu, Apr 2

WSHWashington Capitals3 NJDNew Jersey Devils7

The verdict · earned

The Devils earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

WSH 3 · NJD 7

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:29 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Devils demolished the Capitals 7-3, but the underlying numbers said it should've been a draw. Expected goals split 3.85–3.45, nearly even. New Jersey finished with ruthless efficiency.

The Devils held 48% of shot attempts (30–32) and generated 0.069 xG per shot against Washington's 0.051—quality over volume. They converted 4 of 6 high-danger chances (67%), outperforming their xG by 3.1 goals.

L. Thompson (WSH) faced the brunt of this precision, allowing 2.15 goals more than expected on a 0.793 save percentage. J. Allen (NJD) was composed in response, posting a 0.906 mark on 29 saves.

New Jersey's lethal weapon was the rush: four goals on 25 chances. Washington, despite 33 rush attempts, scored only twice. The Capitals did crash the net effectively—four rebound opportunities generated—but couldn't match New Jersey's clinical finishing.

Dawson Mercer's wrist shot from the wing (P3, 17:54) was the turning point. The Devils never relinquished control.

Three Stars

#86 J. Hughes (NJD) — 2G, 3A in 22:25
#63 J. Bratt (NJD) — 1G, 4A in 18:11
#13 N. Hischier (NJD) — 2A in 21:08

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Apr 2

WSH

NJD

Devils pull away from the Capitals

Chances 3.5 – 3.9Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Devils earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

WSH

3.45

NJD

3.85

47% of the chances53%

The board read WSH 3, NJD 7. The chances read WSH 3.5, NJD 3.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NJD

+3.1

goals above expected

NJD3.85 expected · 7 scored

Expected

Scored

WSH3.45 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

The Devils scored 3.1 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 05:22NJDC. Glass0–1
P1 07:37NJDD. Mercer0–2
P1 08:15WSHC. Hutson1–2
P1 09:47WSHP. DuboisPP2–2
P1 18:19NJDD. Hamilton2–3
P2 09:10NJDJ. Hughes2–4
P3 08:10NJDJ. Hughes2–5

+3 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

WSH

49 shots

Final

88 shots

NJD

39 shots

WSH NJD GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 7 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

WSHNJD

0 / 3

0.69 xG

High danger

4 / 6

1.72 xG

3 / 19

1.92 xG

Medium

2 / 14

1.59 xG

0 / 46

0.84 xG

Low

1 / 36

0.53 xG

The Capitals went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

J. Allen

+0.5

NJD · 29/32

L. Thompson

−2.1

WSH · 23/29

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Devils pull away from the Capitals

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 9–8

05:22NJDC. Glass(L. Hameenaho, N. Bjugstad)0–1
07:37NJDD. Mercer(T. Meier, N. Hischier)0–2
08:15WSHC. Hutson(H. Lapierre, T. Wilson)1–2
09:47WSHP. Duboispower play(R. Leonard, J. Chychrun)2–2
18:19NJDD. Hamilton(J. Hughes, J. Bratt)2–3

2ndshots 14–9

09:10NJDJ. Hughes(J. Bratt, J. Kovacevic)2–4

3rdshots 9–13

08:10NJDJ. Hughes(J. Bratt, C. Brown)2–5
09:33WSHT. Wilson(R. Sandin, P. Dubois)3–5
12:16NJDJ. Brattpower play(N. Hischier, J. Hughes)3–6
17:54NJDD. Mercerempty net(J. Bratt, J. Hughes)3–7

score reads WSH–NJD

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.85

NJD chances

Goals their shots were worth

+3.1

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.081

NJD puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

45.2%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.45Expected goals3.85

NJD 53% of the chance quality

32Shots on goal30

3High-danger chances6

68All attempts (Corsi)56

Adjusted for score: WSH 61% · NJD 40%

Faceoffs · NJD won59%off40%neu60%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

WSH0 / 3 · 0.69 xG

NJD4 / 6 · 1.72 xG

Medium dangermid-range

WSH3 / 19 · 1.92 xG

NJD2 / 14 · 1.59 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

WSH0 / 46 · 0.84 xG

NJD1 / 36 · 0.53 xG

NJD went 4-for-6 from high danger on 1.72 expected goals — 2.3 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

WSH

3 G · 3.45 xG · -0.5

NJD

7 G · 3.85 xG · +3.1

012345678

WSH finished -0.5 against expected, NJD +3.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

WSH

WRIST3/34

SLAP0/6

SNAP0/6

TIP IN0/2

BACKHAND0/1

OTHER0/19

NJD

WRIST4/17

SLAP1/9

SNAP1/8

TIP IN0/2

BACKHAND1/3

OTHER0/17

WSH

NJD

Off the rush

2 G on 33

2.47 xG

4 G on 25

2.71 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 4

0.57 xG

0 G on 0

0.00 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: WSH went 3-for-34, NJD 4-for-17. NJD scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

L. Thompson

WSH · 23/29 · .793

-2.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger4/61.7-2.3

Medium2/141.6-0.4

Low1/360.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Allen

NJD · 29/32 · .906

+0.5

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/30.7+0.7

Medium3/191.9-1.1

Low0/460.8+0.8

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

88 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

WSH

49 shots

Final

88 shots

NJD

39 shots

WSH NJD GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — WSH left, NJD right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Hughes

#86 · C · NJD

2 G · 3 A · 5 SOG · 22:25 on ice · +4

J. Bratt

#63 · L · NJD

1 G · 4 A · 2 SOG · 18:11 on ice · +4

N. Hischier

#13 · C · NJD

0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 21:08 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Apr 2

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:27 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The models can't pick a winner here. MoneyPuck projects a 2.6-2.7 NJD game with the Devils holding 52% win probability—effectively a pick'em. The underlying numbers explain why.

Both teams are dead even in expected goals: Washington 50.0% xG, New Jersey 50.0%. The Corsi split tilts slightly toward the Devils at 51.0%, but the key asymmetry is on the bounces. Washington's PDO sits at 1.018—running hot—while New Jersey's is 0.971, meaning the Devils are due for positive regression and the Capitals for cooling off.

The matchup hinges on two explosive wings. Alex Ovechkin carries Washington's offense at 0.97 xG per 60 minutes with 19 goals and 17 assists; he's also scored 2 high-danger chances on 13.8% shooting. Timo Meier leads New Jersey's attack with 1.08 xG/60, 13 goals, 15 assists, and 3 high-danger tallies, though his shooting sits uncharacteristically low at 6.7%, suggesting either volume or conversion volatility.

Anthony Beauvillier provides secondary punch for Washington. At 0.89 xG/60, he's notched 14 goals and 9 assists with 2 high-danger chances on 10.4% shooting. For New Jersey, Jack Hughes operates at a similar rate—0.88 xG/60—but has been more prolific, recording 18 goals and 17 assists on 11.5% shooting, though he's only cashed in 1 high-danger chance. This suggests he's turning chances into volume rather than off-the-rush opportunities.

Both teams show an identical oddity: 0% of their goals come from high-danger areas and 0% from rebounds. Washington's vulnerable spot is Declan Chisholm on the back end. New Jersey's is Johnathan Kovacevic. Neither team has demonstrated elite shot suppression, so the game likely turns on which secondary scoring holds up and who capitalizes first. With identical underlying shot metrics and opposite regression tails, this is as close to a true toss-up as the data gets.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NJD 52%

52%

NJD

Model favorite

48%

52%

WSH50NJD

NJD by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score WSH 2.6–2.7 NJD; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

WSH← edge

edge →NJD

50.0%50.0%

49.0%51.0%

2.622.45

2.622.50

2.181.66

1.792.23

1.0180.971

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.018 vs 0.971) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

WSH

6-2-2

+3 GD · 2d rest

NJD

6-4-0

+4 GD · 2d rest

1.018

WSH PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.971

NJD PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

WSH

Expected in goal

L. Thompson

2 days rest.833 last start

Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NJD

Expected in goal

J. Markstrom

2 days rest.826 last start

Backup Jacob Markstrom · -11.9 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

WSH

Alex Ovechkin19G 17A

0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh

Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A

0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh

NJD

Timo Meier13G 15A

1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh

Jack Hughes18G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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