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← Thu, Apr 2 · the slate
Breakdown · WPG at DAL

Stars shut out the Jets, 3-0

FinalThu, Apr 2
WPGWinnipeg Jets0DALDallas Stars3
The verdict · earned

The Stars earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

WPG 0 · DAL 3
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:03 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Winnipeg's luck was brutal: 2.89 expected goals, zero on the board. J. Oettinger made the difference, stopping 2.9 goals above expected and finishing with a 1.000 save percentage.

Dallas controlled the underlying battle. They held 55% of 5v5 expected goals (3.59–2.89), generated 5 high-danger chances to Winnipeg's 2, and created more dangerous scoring chances per shot (0.083 xG per shot vs 0.056).

The Stars' edge was clean: superior shot quality, not volume. A. Erne's tip-in from the high slot early in the second (02:15) set the tone; the team kept it efficient from there.

Winnipeg crashed the net with the same urgency as Dallas—three rebound chances each—but converted none. C. Hellebuyck made 18 of 21 saves (+0.59 vs expected), a respectable outing against a team that simply overwhelmed him with net-front pressure and execution.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Apr 2
WPG
0
DAL
3

Stars shut out the Jets, 3-0

Chances 2.9 – 3.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Stars earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
WPG
2.89
DAL
3.59
45% of the chances55%

The board read WPG 0, DAL 3. The chances read WPG 2.9, DAL 3.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
DAL
−0.6
goals above expected
DAL3.59 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
WPG2.89 expected · 0 scored
Expected
Scored

The Jets left 2.9 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 09:43DALM. DuchenePP0–1
  2. P1 11:12DALA. Hyry0–2
  3. P2 02:15DALA. Erne0–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
WPG
36 shots
0
Final
72 shots
DAL
36 shots
3
WPG attackDAL attack
WPG DAL Goal
36
shots · 0 in
36
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
WPGDAL
0 / 2
0.51 xG
High danger
1 / 5
1.69 xG
0 / 19
2.02 xG
Medium
1 / 13
1.45 xG
0 / 31
0.36 xG
Low
1 / 25
0.44 xG

High-danger looks: WPG 0 of 2, DAL 1 of 5.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
J. Oettinger
+2.9
DAL · 22/22
B
C. Hellebuyck
+0.6
WPG · 18/21
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Stars shut out the Jets, 3-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 4–11
  1. 09:43DALM. Duchenepower play(M. Rantanen, M. Heiskanen)0–1
  2. 11:12DALA. Hyry(J. Benn, A. Erne)0–2
2ndshots 7–6
  1. 02:15DALA. Erne(L. Bichsel, A. Hyry)0–3
3rdshots 11–4no goals

    score reads WPG–DAL

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    3.59
    DAL chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −0.6
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.070
    DAL puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    45.3%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    2.89Expected goals3.59
    DAL 55% of the chance quality
    22Shots on goal21
    2High-danger chances5
    52All attempts (Corsi)43
    Adjusted for score: WPG 61% · DAL 39%
    Faceoffs · DAL won9%off64%neu56%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    WPG0 / 2 · 0.51 xG
    DAL1 / 5 · 1.69 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    WPG0 / 19 · 2.02 xG
    DAL1 / 13 · 1.45 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    WPG0 / 31 · 0.36 xG
    DAL1 / 25 · 0.44 xG

    WPG went 0-for-19 from medium danger on 2.02 expected goals — 2.0 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    WPG
    0 G · 2.89 xG · -2.9
    DAL
    3 G · 3.59 xG · -0.6
    01234

    WPG finished -2.9 against expected, DAL -0.6.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    WPG
    SNAP0/17
    WRIST0/4
    TIP IN0/5
    SLAP0/7
    BACKHAND0/2
    BAT0/1
    DEFLECTED0/0
    OTHER0/16
    DAL
    SNAP2/15
    WRIST0/11
    TIP IN1/6
    SLAP0/3
    BACKHAND0/0
    BAT0/0
    DEFLECTED0/1
    OTHER0/7
    WPG
    DAL
    Off the rush
    0 G on 23
    1.88 xG
    1 G on 23
    1.98 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 3
    0.51 xG
    1 G on 3
    0.81 xG

    Snap shots carried the volume: WPG went 0-for-17, DAL 2-for-15.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    C. Hellebuyck
    WPG · 18/21 · .857
    +0.6
    saved above expected
    B
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/51.7+0.7
    Medium1/131.4+0.5
    Low1/250.4-0.6

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    J. Oettinger
    DAL · 22/22 · 1.000
    +2.9
    saved above expected
    A+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/20.5+0.5
    Medium0/192.0+2.0
    Low0/310.4+0.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    72 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    WPG
    36 shots
    0
    Final
    72 shots
    DAL
    36 shots
    3
    WPG attackDAL attack
    WPG DAL Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — WPG left, DAL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    A. Hyry
    #25 · R · DAL
    1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 11:49 on ice · +2
    A. Erne
    #73 · L · DAL
    1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 10:50 on ice · +2
    M. Heiskanen
    #4 · D · DAL
    0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 24:34 on ice
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Thu, Apr 2
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model calls this even: 55% win probability for Dallas, projecting a 2.3-to-2.6-goal range. These teams have offset strengths in nearly perfect balance.

    Winnipeg owns momentum. The Jets are 6-2-2 over their last 10 games, and their recent performance has outpaced the underlying play they've been given. Dallas owns the 5v5 possession battle at 51.0% expected goals share to Winnipeg's 48.0%, yet the Stars are -7 in goal differential over the same stretch—a sign that shooting luck is already reversing.

    Here's the trap: Dallas carries a 1.024 PDO, meaning their conversion has been unsustainably high. Regression is coming. But regression doesn't guarantee a loss; it means the league's variance stops padding their margins. Their underlying play remains superior enough to survive it if they limit Winnipeg's high-danger chances.

    Winnipeg's advantage is roster construction. Nino Niederreiter generates 0.87 expected goals per 60 minutes with 6 goals and an 8.6% shooting rate—genuine excellence. Kyle Connor has 25 goals on 0.83 xG/60 and a 13.0% shooting rate, which means his totals are outrunning his chances: volatile but real.

    Dallas counters with Jason Robertson leading at 0.96 xG/60 and matching Connor's 25-goal total. Michael Bunting provides secondary potency at 0.83 xG/60 with a 7.6% shooting rate, solid though less explosive than Connor's output rate.

    The pivotal variable: C. Hellebuyck is on a back-to-back. A tired starter or a backup appearance shifts the game by 5 to 10 percentage points either direction—enough to decide a pick'em. Both teams struggle with hard-danger and rebound conversion, so secondary scoring won't move the needle. Colin Miller is Winnipeg's defensive vulnerability; Tyler Myers holds that role for Dallas.

    This is, genuinely, a flip. Dallas's play is better, but Winnipeg's form is real, and goaltending availability can tip the scale.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    DAL 55%
    55%
    DAL
    Model favorite
    45%
    55%
    WPG50DAL

    DAL by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score WPG 2.3–2.6 DAL; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    WPG← edge
    edge →DAL
    48.0%51.0%
    49.0%47.0%
    2.342.36
    2.552.29
    1.902.07
    2.101.68
    0.9981.024

    DAL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.998 vs 1.024) says DAL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    WPG
    6-2-2
    +2 GD · 1d rest
    DAL
    3-5-2
    -7 GD · 2d rest
    0.998
    WPG PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.024
    DAL PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Stars own the underlying play — 51.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
    Regression watch
    • The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Stars own the underlying play — 51.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
    • C. Hellebuyck is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Jets are the hotter team by points pace (6-2-2 in their last 10).
    • The Stars are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.
    • The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    WPG
    Expected in goal
    C. Hellebuyck
    back-to-back.857 last start
    Backup Connor Hellebuyck · +5.5 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    DAL
    Expected in goal
    J. Oettinger
    2 days rest.818 last start
    Backup Jake Oettinger · +5.7 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    WPG
    Nino Niederreiter6G 6A
    0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 8.6% sh
    Kyle Connor25G 30A
    0.83 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh
    DAL
    Jason Robertson25G 21A
    0.96 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.4% sh
    Michael Bunting8G 14A
    0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 7.6% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page