TACTICAL
The Wild own the underlying play
The Wild own the underlying play — 58.8% 5v5 xG vs 48.8%.
Preview · MIN at WSH
Wild at Capitals: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanSun, Nov 1
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelNov 1, 9:01 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a MIN 3.6 - 3.3 WSH game with the Wild at 54% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- The Wild own the underlying play . The Wild own the underlying play — 58.8% 5v5 xG vs 48.8%.
- The Wild drive Corsi at 53.0% . The Wild drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Capitals. The Capitals' PDO is 1.028 — running hot, expect some regression.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | MIN | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 58.8% | 48.8% |
| Corsi% | 53.0% | 48.0% |
| PDO | 1.015 | 1.028 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Wild own the underlying play — 58.8% 5v5 xG vs 48.8%.
- The Wild drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.028 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: J. Wallstedt (+7.7 GSAx in 13 GP, 91.6% SV) vs C. Lindgren (+0.6 GSAx in 4 GP, 88.8% SV).
- J. Wallstedt has the GSAx edge — 7.1 goals above his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 3:30 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
MIN 54%
54%
MIN
Model favorite
54%
46%
MIN50WSH
MIN by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score MIN 3.6–3.3 WSH; 15% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
MIN← edge
edge →WSH
58.8%48.8%
53.0%48.0%
4.073.43
2.853.60
3.133.58
2.333.08
1.0151.028
MIN holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.015 vs 1.028) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
MIN
6-2-2
+6 GD · 2d rest
WSH
7-3-0
+5 GD · 2d rest
1.015
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.028
WSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Wild drive Corsi at 53.0%
The Wild drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGWSH
Regression watch: Capitals
The Capitals' PDO is 1.028 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A genuine coin flip
Win probability splits 46%–54% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Wild own the underlying play — 58.8% 5v5 xG vs 48.8%.
- The Wild drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.028 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Wild own the underlying play — 58.8% 5v5 xG vs 48.8%.
- The Wild drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Wallstedt (+7.7 GSAx in 13 GP, 91.6% SV) vs C. Lindgren (+0.6 GSAx in 4 GP, 88.8% SV).
- J. Wallstedt has the GSAx edge — 7.1 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.028 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
MIN
vs NYI · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
J. Wallstedt
2 days rest.846 last start60:33 played
Backup Calvin Pickard · -2.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Brink14:48
- M. Boldy21:10
- Y. Trenin15:04
- J. Eriksson Ek17:12
- T. Pitlick06:41
- B. Coleman16:16
- D. Yurov18:02
- R. Hartman13:09
- M. McCarron12:12
- M. Shabanov17:49
- N. Sturm10:04
- K. Kaprizov21:50
Defence · 6
- O. Maatta16:58
- Z. Bogosian16:05
- J. Brodin23:36
- M. Kiersted13:45
- Q. Hughes33:41
- D. Spacek10:33
WSH
vs NSH · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
C. Lindgren
2 days rest.893 last start60:00 played
Backup Logan Thompson · +5.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Ovechkin10:56
- R. Leonard13:53
- D. Strome15:54
- A. Protas19:33
- B. Jenner16:09
- J. Kyrou14:31
- J. Sourdif12:50
- T. Wilson19:43
- I. Protas11:37
- A. Beauvillier09:40
- P. Dubois17:07
- A. Tuch17:18
Defence · 6
- M. Roy23:07
- J. Chychrun22:30
- T. Liljegren15:54
- J. St. Ivany15:12
- M. Fehérváry19:49
- C. Hutson18:26
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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