TACTICAL
The Mammoth own the underlying play
The Mammoth own the underlying play — 57.9% 5v5 xG vs 41.2%.
Preview · UTA at PHI
The Mammoth are the model's lean over the Flyers — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanSun, Nov 1
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelNov 1, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans toward the Mammoth, and the reason shows up in how the game has been played at even strength. Utah has controlled the play, and Philadelphia has been on the wrong end of it. The Flyers also have a luck problem, which the model expects to ease.
Utah has taken 57.9% of the expected goals at five-on-five, a measure that weights each chance by how likely it was to go in. Philadelphia's share is 41.2%. Utah also controls shot attempts at 55.6%, so expect the territory to tilt toward the Mammoth.
The Flyers arrive underwater, sitting at -9 in goal differential over their last 10 games. Their PDO is 0.960, which means they are running cold and due for positive regression. Utah's is 0.990.
In goal, S. Cossa has allowed 3.4 more goals than his workload should have allowed across 5 games. His save percentage is 85.5%. J. Woll has done the opposite over 8 games, and his save percentage is 89.9%. Woll stands 7.0 goals above Cossa this season, and that goaltending edge belongs to him.
The model's projected score is Utah 3.4, Philadelphia 3.0, and it gives the Mammoth a 57% chance to win.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 4:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
UTA 57%
57%
UTA
Model favorite
57%
43%
UTA50PHI
UTA by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score UTA 3.4–3.0 PHI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
UTA← edge
edge →PHI
57.9%41.2%
55.6%43.9%
3.822.53
2.783.61
3.641.93
3.293.33
0.9900.960
UTA holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.990 vs 0.960) says UTA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
UTA
6-4-0
-4 GD · 2d rest
PHI
3-5-2
-9 GD · 3d rest
0.990
UTA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.960
PHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 55.6%
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 55.6% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGPHI
Regression watch: Flyers
The Flyers' PDO is 0.960 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 57.9% 5v5 xG vs 41.2%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 55.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.960 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 57.9% 5v5 xG vs 41.2%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 55.6% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: S. Cossa (-3.4 GSAx in 5 GP, 85.5% SV) vs J. Woll (+3.6 GSAx in 8 GP, 89.9% SV).
- J. Woll has the GSAx edge — 7.0 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Flyers are underwater at -9 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.960 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
UTA
vs PIT · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
S. Cossa
2 days rest.909 last start63:07 played
Backup Karel Vejmelka · -3.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- N. Schmaltz15:23
- C. Keller17:53
- D. Guenther16:00
- V. Trocheck19:54
- J. McBain12:34
- B. Hayton16:17
- D. But08:59
- K. Yamamoto15:19
- L. Crouse17:29
- A. Lee15:21
- K. Stenlund13:43
- L. Cooley18:36
Defence · 6
- A. Peeke19:44
- D. Simashev13:16
- M. Weegar23:57
- A. Duda15:17
- N. Schmidt22:43
- M. Sergachev26:16
PHI
vs WSH · Wed, Oct 28
Expected in goal
J. Woll
3 days rest.862 last start58:09 played
Backup Dan Vladar · -1.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Couturier18:17
- A. Bump14:47
- C. Dvorak17:20
- N. Cates12:58
- M. Michkov17:06
- T. Zegras19:09
- N. Acciari10:25
- C. Knuble15:27
- T. Foerster19:19
- J. Gaucher08:55
- D. Barkey14:42
- P. Martone14:32
Defence · 6
- T. Sanheim20:58
- C. York18:02
- J. Drysdale23:26
- H. McDonald16:36
- N. Seeler17:19
- O. Bonk18:22
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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