WARNINGEDM
T. Jarry on a back-to-back
T. Jarry projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · EDM at NYR
Oilers at Rangers: no daylight between these two
The model's leanSun, Nov 1
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelNov 1, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model sees a true coin flip. Edmonton and New York are projected to finish level, and the Rangers get a 50% chance to win.
The one clear edge is rest. The Rangers arrive with five days off, while Edmonton has had none.
In goal, T. Jarry projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back, so watch for a backup start or a tired starter. Over seven games, T. Jarry has posted a 90.1% save percentage and sits at -1.9 goals saved above expected. J. Reimer has made one appearance, a 62.5% save percentage, and is at -2.1 goals saved above expected in that game.
Edmonton is the hotter side by points pace, going 7-2-1 over its last 10.
Over the season at five-on-five, the two teams are nearly identical by expected goals share. Edmonton sits at 51.3% and New York at 51.2%. Counting raw shot attempts, Edmonton's share is 47.8%, slightly under New York's.
The number to watch is Edmonton's PDO of 1.041, against New York's 0.999. The draft reads the Oilers as running hot, with some regression to be expected.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 6:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
NYR 50%
50%
NYR
Model favorite
50%
50%
EDM50NYR
NYR by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score EDM 3.2–3.2 NYR; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
EDM← edge
edge →NYR
51.3%51.2%
47.8%48.1%
3.053.25
2.903.10
4.213.14
3.003.00
1.0410.999
The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.041 vs 0.999) says EDM has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
EDM
7-2-1
+11 GD · 0d rest
NYR
4-5-1
-3 GD · 5d rest
1.041
EDM PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.999
NYR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICALNYR
Rest edge
The Rangers come in on 5 days of rest; the other side on 0.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
WARNINGEDM
Regression watch: Oilers
The Oilers' PDO is 1.041 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
No daylight between these two
Win probability splits 50%–50% — margins decide this one.
Regression watch
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.041 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- Goalie matchup: T. Jarry (-1.9 GSAx in 7 GP, 90.1% SV) vs J. Reimer (-2.1 GSAx in 1 GP, 62.5% SV).
- T. Jarry is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Oilers are the hotter team by points pace (7-2-1 over their last 10).
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.041 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Rangers have 5 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
EDM
vs NYI · Sat, Oct 31
Expected in goal
T. Jarry
back-to-back1.000 last start60:00 played
Backup Devon Levi · +0.7 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- T. Frederic09:49
- J. Dickinson12:46
- M. Joseph15:03
- A. Formenton13:53
- L. Draisaitl19:41
- C. Dach14:56
- K. Kapanen19:27
- O. Michaels13:41
- I. Howard00:30
- V. Podkolzin14:56
- R. Nugent-Hopkins18:49
- C. McDavid23:20
Defence · 6
- E. Bouchard21:58
- C. Murphy20:35
- R. Shea22:35
- M. Ekholm20:41
- T. Emberson11:33
- S. Mukhamadullin15:47
NYR
vs LAK · Mon, Oct 26
Expected in goal
J. Reimer
5 days rest.625 last start20:00 played
J. Reimer started last game and was relieved by D. Garand (38:05 of it).
Backup Dylan Garand · +0.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Miller20:32
- A. Lafrenière18:27
- T. Raddysh05:58
- P. Dorofeyev16:14
- E. Tolvanen08:49
- T. Kartye17:57
- O. Bjorkstrand16:12
- N. Laba13:30
- L. Glendening07:31
- W. Cuylle15:58
- M. Zibanejad19:15
- G. Perreault17:07
Defence · 6
- B. Schneider20:24
- S. Durzi15:10
- A. Smits13:56
- A. Fox24:25
- M. Pettersson22:07
- V. Gavrikov22:09
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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