WARNINGOTT
S. Ersson on a back-to-back
S. Ersson projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · OTT at ANA
Senators at Ducks: a true toss-up
The model's leanSun, Nov 1
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelNov 1, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Nothing in the model separates these two clubs. Its projection has OTT 3.4 and ANA 3.2, about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
The first key is in net, where Linus Ullmark has been a season-long wall. Over 8 games he is +8.2 goals saved above expected, meaning he has kept out more goals than his opponents' shots should have produced.
The second key is the schedule. S. Ersson projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back, so watch for a backup start or tired legs. The goaltending numbers are not in his favor: S. Ersson is at -4.2 goals saved above expected in 7 games. V. Husso is at -1.4 in 5.
The Ducks have the rest edge, coming in on 2 days of rest while the Senators come in on 0. The Senators are the hotter team by points pace, at 5-4-1 over their last 10. The Ducks are underwater, with a -6 goal differential over their last 10.
Under the surface, the Senators have the stronger case. They hold a 53.4% share of expected goals at 5v5, against 47.0% for Anaheim. On shot attempts, OTT sits at 48.6% and ANA at 47.2%.
The Senators' PDO is 1.022, which is running hot, so expect some regression. Anaheim's is 0.993.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
OTT 53%
53%
OTT
Model favorite
53%
47%
OTT50ANA
OTT by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score OTT 3.4–3.2 ANA; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
OTT← edge
edge →ANA
53.4%47.0%
48.6%47.2%
3.423.16
2.993.56
3.133.31
3.003.85
1.0220.993
OTT holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.022 vs 0.993) says OTT has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
OTT
5-4-1
+0 GD · 0d rest
ANA
3-6-1
-6 GD · 2d rest
1.022
OTT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.993
ANA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
STRENGTHOTT
Linus Ullmark has been a season-long wall
Linus Ullmark: +8.2 GSAx over 8 games (0.945 SV%).
TACTICAL
The Senators own the underlying play
The Senators own the underlying play — 53.4% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
WARNINGOTT
Regression watch: Senators
The Senators' PDO is 1.022 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Senators own the underlying play — 53.4% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
Regression watch
- The Senators' PDO is 1.022 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Senators own the underlying play — 53.4% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
- Goalie matchup: S. Ersson (-4.2 GSAx in 7 GP, 86.6% SV) vs V. Husso (-1.4 GSAx in 5 GP, 85.7% SV).
- S. Ersson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Senators are the hotter team by points pace (5-4-1 over their last 10).
- The Ducks are underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Senators' PDO is 1.022 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Ducks have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
OTT
vs SJS · Sat, Oct 31
Expected in goal
S. Ersson
back-to-back.957 last start59:35 played
Backup Linus Ullmark · +8.2 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- S. Pinto17:04
- T. Stützle20:14
- D. Batherson16:11
- F. Zetterlund13:27
- N. Cousins10:05
- M. Amadio17:43
- D. Cozens17:16
- C. Giroux15:55
- S. Halliday08:42
- X. Bourgault07:25
- P. Tomasino12:10
- R. Greig18:42
Defence · 6
- A. Zub18:52
- J. Spence18:16
- N. Matinpalo18:53
- T. Kleven19:38
- T. Chabot19:02
- J. Sanderson22:50
ANA
vs BUF · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
V. Husso
2 days rest.774 last start53:34 played
Backup Lukas Dostal · -3.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Colangelo11:06
- A. Killorn13:00
- A. Greer13:33
- J. Caulfield13:38
- J. Malott10:48
- T. Washe16:09
- B. Sennecke21:13
- C. Gauthier22:18
- M. Granlund23:14
- F. Vatrano11:33
- L. Carlsson22:09
- R. McQueen13:44
Defence · 6
- J. LaCombe29:36
- N. Jensen14:49
- T. Mitchell14:24
- N. Warren14:45
- T. Hinds15:18
- T. Luneau21:57
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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