TACTICALCAR
The model's clear lean
The Hurricanes project at 64% win probability.
Preview · WPG at CAR
The Hurricanes should handle the Jets on the underlying numbers
The model's leanSun, Nov 1
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelNov 1, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Hurricanes should handle the Jets, and the model leans clearly toward Carolina. The case rests on how each team has played at five-on-five this season.
The Hurricanes have produced 63.0% of the expected goals at five-on-five. The Jets have produced 46.2%. Shot attempts point the same way. The Hurricanes hold 59.1% of them, so expect territorial tilt toward Carolina.
Carolina is also the hotter side by points pace, at 8-1-1 over its last 10. The Jets are underwater, with a goal differential of -15 over their last 10.
The model projects Winnipeg at 2.8 goals and Carolina at 3.8. That projection gives the Hurricanes a 64% chance to win.
The goalie matchup pits N. Daws against P. Kochetkov. N. Daws has saved 0.3 more goals than his shots should have allowed in six games. His save percentage is 88.6%. P. Kochetkov has saved 4.3 more goals than his shots should have allowed in nine games. His save percentage is 91.9%.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 1:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
CAR 65%
65%
CAR
Model favorite
35%
65%
WPG50CAR
CAR by 30 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score WPG 2.8–3.8 CAR; 15% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
WPG← edge
edge →CAR
46.2%63.0%
47.8%59.1%
2.984.10
3.482.41
2.433.73
3.362.33
1.0031.011
CAR holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.003 vs 1.011) says CAR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
WPG
1-7-2
-15 GD · 1d rest
CAR
8-1-1
+16 GD · 2d rest
1.003
WPG PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.011
CAR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Hurricanes own the underlying play
The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 63.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.2%.
TACTICAL
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.1%
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.1% — expect territorial tilt.
Where the edges live
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 63.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.2%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.1% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 63.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.2%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.1% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: N. Daws (+0.3 GSAx in 6 GP, 88.6% SV) vs P. Kochetkov (+4.3 GSAx in 9 GP, 91.9% SV).
- The Hurricanes are the hotter team by points pace (8-1-1 over their last 10).
- The Jets are underwater at -15 goal differential over their last 10.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
WPG
vs FLA · Fri, Oct 30
Expected in goal
N. Daws
1 day rest.892 last start58:06 played
Backup Stuart Skinner · +2.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- A. Iafallo14:07
- G. Vilardi20:05
- A. Lowry13:57
- D. Mercer18:14
- I. Rosen11:49
- M. Barron15:04
- C. Koepke09:36
- M. Scheifele22:18
- V. Björck15:30
- K. Connor20:44
- C. Perfetti18:38
Defence · 7
- D. DeMelo17:39
- N. Pionk23:42
- H. Fleury15:19
- M. Ferraro18:18
- D. Samberg20:40
- E. Salomonsson18:39
- T. Bauer02:59
CAR
vs CBJ · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
P. Kochetkov
2 days rest.923 last start60:00 played
Backup Brandon Bussi · -5.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Aho17:38
- L. Stankoven17:09
- S. Jarvis16:25
- N. Ehlers15:56
- W. Carrier13:23
- A. Svechnikov19:35
- N. Deslauriers07:24
- J. Martinook17:48
- E. Robinson10:32
- J. Blake16:48
- M. Jankowski18:05
- J. Kotkaniemi08:01
Defence · 6
- S. Gostisbehere16:07
- J. Chatfield21:34
- J. Välimäki12:49
- K. Miller23:30
- S. Walker20:16
- J. Slavin22:53
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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