WARNINGCGY
D. Wolf on a back-to-back
D. Wolf projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · CGY at COL
The Avalanche are the model's lean over the Flames — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanSat, Oct 31
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 31, 9:03 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans Colorado over Calgary and projects CGY 2.9 - 3.5 COL. The lean rests on how the Avalanche have played this season, and a luck signal could shrink it.
Colorado has been the stronger side at five-on-five. The Avalanche have won 52.8% of the expected goals battle, against 45.7% for the Flames, which is the clearest sign that they have controlled play. The model gives Colorado a 61% chance to win.
The caveat is luck. Colorado's PDO of 1.052 is running hot, so expect some of that to come back. Calgary's PDO of 0.947 is running cold and is due for positive regression.
Rest favors Colorado, with the Avalanche arriving on 2 days and the Flames on 0. D. Wolf projects to start the second night of a back-to-back, on no rest, so watch for a backup start or tired legs.
In goal, M. Blackwood has the edge this season, by 7.9 goals saved above expected over D. Wolf.
The lean holds, but PDO regression and the back-to-back are the two places it could slip.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 10:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
COL 61%
61%
COL
Model favorite
39%
61%
CGY50COL
COL by 22 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score CGY 2.9–3.5 COL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CGY← edge
edge →COL
45.7%52.8%
52.0%52.5%
2.883.25
3.432.91
2.624.15
3.623.15
0.9471.052
COL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.947 vs 1.052) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CGY
6-4-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
COL
5-4-1
+4 GD · 2d rest
0.947
CGY PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.052
COL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Avalanche own the underlying play
The Avalanche own the underlying play — 52.8% 5v5 xG vs 45.7%.
TACTICALCOL
The model's clear lean
The Avalanche project at 61% win probability.
WARNINGCOL
Regression watch: Avalanche
The Avalanche's PDO is 1.052 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Avalanche own the underlying play — 52.8% 5v5 xG vs 45.7%.
Regression watch
- The Avalanche's PDO is 1.052 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Flames' PDO is 0.947 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Avalanche own the underlying play — 52.8% 5v5 xG vs 45.7%.
- Goalie matchup: D. Wolf (-8.5 GSAx in 7 GP, 84.7% SV) vs M. Blackwood (-0.6 GSAx in 9 GP, 89.4% SV).
- M. Blackwood has the GSAx edge — 7.9 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Avalanche's PDO is 1.052 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Avalanche have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CGY
vs SEA · Fri, Oct 30
Expected in goal
D. Wolf
back-to-back.909 last start60:00 played
Backup Devin Cooley · +4.1 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- M. Backlund17:51
- M. Frost16:55
- Y. Sharangovich17:13
- R. Strome14:38
- M. Coronato13:28
- J. Castagna11:09
- A. Klapka11:53
- A. Suniev14:14
- M. Tsyplakov12:25
- M. Pospisil13:26
- J. Farabee15:18
- M. Gridin16:18
Defence · 6
- K. Bahl21:08
- Z. Parekh16:32
- Z. Whitecloud19:21
- Y. Kuznetsov19:49
- J. Middleton20:03
- S. Nemec21:28
COL
vs NJD · Wed, Oct 28
Expected in goal
M. Blackwood
2 days rest.909 last start59:27 played
Backup Scott Wedgewood · -3.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- F. Svechkov13:31
- N. Roy11:26
- B. Nelson16:38
- T. Hughes13:09
- P. Kelly14:13
- L. O'Connor13:39
- N. MacKinnon19:00
- A. Lehkonen18:33
- J. Schwartz10:53
- M. Necas19:35
- N. Kadri15:06
- G. Landeskog12:29
Defence · 6
- D. Toews24:42
- C. Makar25:51
- B. Kulak22:42
- J. Manson04:06
- S. Malinski21:11
- B. Burns17:49
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
Keep going