TACTICAL
The Stars own the underlying play
The Stars own the underlying play — 55.3% 5v5 xG vs 44.8%.
Preview · CBJ at DAL
The Stars are the model's lean over the Blue Jackets — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanSat, Oct 31
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 31, 9:04 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans toward the Stars, and the case starts at five-on-five, where the underlying play has favored them.
The model projects a CBJ 2.8 - 3.3 DAL game. That gives the Stars a 58% win probability.
The Stars own the underlying play at five-on-five, holding 55.3% of the expected goals against 44.8% for the Blue Jackets. Shot attempts point the same way, at 51.7% for DAL against 47.9% for CBJ, so expect the play to tilt toward Dallas.
The luck side is where the regression case sits. The Stars' PDO is 0.984, running cold and due for positive regression. The Blue Jackets sit at 0.993.
Recent form agrees with the Stars. They are the hotter team by points pace, at 6-3-1 over their last 10, while the Blue Jackets carry a -11 goal differential over the same stretch.
In goal, J. Greaves is at -1.8 goals saved above expectation across 7 games, with a save percentage of 88.4%. J. Oettinger is at +6.5 over 10 games, with a save percentage of 91.7%. That gives J. Oettinger the goaltending edge, 8.2 goals above his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
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Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
DAL 58%
58%
DAL
Model favorite
42%
58%
CBJ50DAL
DAL by 16 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score CBJ 2.8–3.3 DAL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CBJ← edge
edge →DAL
44.8%55.3%
47.9%51.7%
2.663.13
3.292.53
2.452.62
3.272.23
0.9930.984
DAL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 0.984) says CBJ has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CBJ
4-6-0
-11 GD · 1d rest
DAL
6-3-1
+5 GD · 1d rest
0.993
CBJ PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.984
DAL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Stars drive Corsi at 51.7%
The Stars drive Corsi at 51.7% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGDAL
Regression watch: Stars
The Stars' PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICALDAL
J. Oettinger was beatable last time out
J. Oettinger stopped just 80.0% in his last start.
Where the edges live
- The Stars own the underlying play — 55.3% 5v5 xG vs 44.8%.
- The Stars drive Corsi at 51.7% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Stars' PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Stars own the underlying play — 55.3% 5v5 xG vs 44.8%.
- The Stars drive Corsi at 51.7% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Greaves (-1.8 GSAx in 7 GP, 88.4% SV) vs J. Oettinger (+6.5 GSAx in 10 GP, 91.7% SV).
- J. Oettinger has the GSAx edge — 8.2 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Stars are the hotter team by points pace (6-3-1 over their last 10).
- The Blue Jackets are underwater at -11 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Stars' PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CBJ
vs CAR · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
J. Greaves
1 day rest.889 last start58:51 played
Backup Cam Talbot · +1.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Coyle18:02
- C. Sillinger15:20
- A. Fantilli22:17
- S. Monahan15:17
- M. Olivier16:17
- V. Nichushkin18:02
- D. Heinen09:09
- C. Garland12:27
- M. Knies17:04
- K. Johnson20:47
- L. Del Bel Belluz07:26
- R. Lomberg08:14
Defence · 6
- J. Christiansen14:39
- D. Mateychuk24:54
- Z. Werenski28:47
- D. Fabbro13:33
- E. Gudbranson15:43
- D. Severson19:11
DAL
vs MTL · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
J. Oettinger
1 day rest.800 last start57:42 played
Backup Casey DeSmith · -1.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Benn11:58
- C. Blackwell08:45
- S. Steel16:21
- J. Robertson21:32
- J. Kiviranta10:04
- R. Hintz19:27
- A. Hyry13:21
- M. Seminoff04:35
- J. Hryckowian13:20
- W. Johnston21:41
- T. Seguin17:01
- M. Rantanen23:04
Defence · 6
- M. Heiskanen29:47
- N. Lundkvist17:01
- L. Bichsel16:01
- T. Taylor10:44
- T. Harley24:53
- T. Myers14:43
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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