WARNINGVAN
Kevin Lankinen has leaked goals all season
Kevin Lankinen: -14.2 GSAx over 8 games.
Shoot from everywhere — volume beats a cold crease.
Preview · TOR at VAN
Maple Leafs at Canucks: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanSat, Oct 31
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 31, 9:03 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model's verdict is a pick'em, with Toronto getting the nod by a hair: 3.4 goals to 3.2 in the projected game.
That works out to a 53% win probability for the Maple Leafs. It is a lean, not a lock, and it is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Toronto arrives as the hotter team by points pace, at 5-4-1 over its last 10 games. Vancouver is underwater, with a goal differential of -19 over the same stretch.
The deeper case for Toronto is in the underlying play. The Maple Leafs own the underlying play at five-on-five, and the table shows the split in expected goals share and shot attempts share. The draft reads that as territorial: expect the territory to tilt toward Toronto.
| Metric | TOR | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 47.8% | 38.6% |
| Shot attempts share | 47.0% | 42.2% |
| PDO | 0.992 | 1.002 |
Goaltending is the counterweight. Kevin Lankinen has leaked goals all season. His goals saved above expected sit at -14.2 over 8 games.
In the projected matchup, S. Bobrovsky has +0.1 goals saved above expected over 10 games played, and L. Meriläinen sits at +0.0 over the same span. The save percentage is the clearer gap: 89.8% for Meriläinen against 88.5% for Bobrovsky.
Read it as a lean. The underlying numbers and recent form point toward Toronto, but the projected margin is small enough that the game can go either way.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
TOR 53%
53%
TOR
Model favorite
53%
47%
TOR50VAN
TOR by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score TOR 3.4–3.2 VAN; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
TOR← edge
edge →VAN
47.8%38.6%
47.0%42.2%
3.122.41
3.413.83
3.733.00
3.334.53
0.9921.002
TOR holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.992 vs 1.002) says VAN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
TOR
5-4-1
+6 GD · 2d rest
VAN
1-8-1
-19 GD · 1d rest
0.992
TOR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.002
VAN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Maple Leafs own the underlying play
The Maple Leafs own the underlying play — 47.8% 5v5 xG vs 38.6%.
TACTICAL
The Maple Leafs drive Corsi at 47.0%
The Maple Leafs drive Corsi at 47.0% — expect territorial tilt.
TACTICAL
A genuine coin flip
Win probability splits 47%–53% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Maple Leafs own the underlying play — 47.8% 5v5 xG vs 38.6%.
- The Maple Leafs drive Corsi at 47.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Maple Leafs own the underlying play — 47.8% 5v5 xG vs 38.6%.
- The Maple Leafs drive Corsi at 47.0% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: S. Bobrovsky (+0.1 GSAx in 10 GP, 88.5% SV) vs L. Meriläinen (+0.0 GSAx in 10 GP, 89.8% SV).
- The Maple Leafs are the hotter team by points pace (5-4-1 over their last 10).
- The Canucks are underwater at -19 goal differential over their last 10.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
TOR
vs SEA · Wed, Oct 28
Expected in goal
S. Bobrovsky
2 days rest.706 last start59:16 played
Backup Anthony Stolarz · +0.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Sissons13:49
- Z. MacEwen08:21
- N. Paul16:19
- B. Duhaime13:35
- B. Groulx06:23
- A. Matthews20:08
- E. Cowan19:08
- V. Lettieri09:15
- T. Blueger12:59
- W. Nylander22:13
- G. McKenna15:33
- J. Roslovic17:28
Defence · 6
- J. McCabe23:12
- T. Stecher21:48
- D. Mermis09:52
- D. Raddysh24:49
- M. Rielly19:52
- O. Ekman-Larsson16:45
VAN
vs SJS · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
L. Meriläinen
1 day rest.875 last start56:27 played
Backup Kevin Lankinen · -14.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Boeser15:26
- A. Bains10:39
- D. O'Connor17:21
- M. Rossi11:15
- E. Pettersson21:25
- P. Cotter10:36
- M. Sasson10:37
- J. DeBrusk16:03
- F. Chytil22:13
- J. Lekkerimäki17:14
- L. Ohgren13:21
- L. Karlsson14:29
Defence · 6
- J. Oleksiak20:48
- T. Willander19:55
- Z. Buium15:02
- F. Hronek27:03
- E. Pettersson18:23
- V. Mancini12:42
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
Keep going