STRENGTHMTL
Jacob Fowler has been a season-long wall
Jacob Fowler: +10.1 GSAx over 7 games (0.942 SV%).
Preview · PIT at MTL
Penguins at Canadiens: a true toss-up
The model's leanSat, Oct 31
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 31, 9:03 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Montreal holds a narrow edge, and the honest read is that this is close to a coin flip. When two teams are this even, the game turns on a few margins rather than on one side being clearly better.
The model projects PIT at 3.3 goals and MTL at 3.5, a gap too small to lean on. It gives the Canadiens a 53% chance to win, about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Jacob Fowler has been a season-long wall. He is at +10.1 in goals saved above expected across seven games. His save percentage is 0.942.
Form Check
The Canadiens are the hotter team by points pace, going 7-2-1 over their last 10. The Penguins are underwater, at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
Season Five-on-Five
| Metric | PIT | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 49.3% | 50.8% |
| Shot attempts share | 51.8% | 54.8% |
| PDO | 0.993 | 1.015 |
Montreal leads in both shot attempts and expected goals share, though neither gap is large.
Goaltending Matchup
The goalie matchup favors A. Silovs on the numbers this season. He is at +0.8 in goals saved above expected over nine games, while J. Dobes is at -5.3 over six. The gap between them is 6.1 goals. Silovs' save percentage is 88.9%. Dobes' is 85.3%.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
MTL 53%
53%
MTL
Model favorite
47%
53%
PIT50MTL
MTL by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score PIT 3.3–3.5 MTL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
PIT← edge
edge →MTL
49.3%50.8%
51.8%54.8%
3.303.39
3.403.28
3.233.15
3.312.92
0.9931.015
MTL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 1.015) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
PIT
3-5-2
-8 GD · 1d rest
MTL
7-2-1
+7 GD · 1d rest
0.993
PIT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.015
MTL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
A true toss-up
Win probability splits 53%–47% — margins decide this one.
Things to watch
- Goalie matchup: A. Silovs (+0.8 GSAx in 9 GP, 88.9% SV) vs J. Dobes (-5.3 GSAx in 6 GP, 85.3% SV).
- A. Silovs has the GSAx edge — 6.1 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Canadiens are the hotter team by points pace (7-2-1 over their last 10).
- The Penguins are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
PIT
vs UTA · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
A. Silovs
1 day rest.886 last start63:27 played
Backup Sergei Murashov · -0.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- N. Robertson12:11
- T. Novak17:03
- C. Dewar12:45
- H. Lapierre13:29
- V. Koivunen16:43
- B. Lizotte12:59
- E. Chinakhov16:15
- A. Kuzmenko14:37
- R. Rakell18:31
- E. Malkin16:23
- B. Kindel16:32
- S. Crosby19:30
Defence · 6
- K. Korczak19:08
- S. Stastney16:40
- S. Girard19:49
- K. Letang23:03
- E. Karlsson21:33
- D. Carlile21:10
MTL
vs DAL · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
J. Dobes
1 day rest.895 last start60:00 played
Backup Jacob Fowler · +10.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Caufield18:21
- A. Newhook18:47
- J. Anderson15:42
- J. Slafkovský18:26
- C. Kreider12:23
- P. Danault19:26
- F. Xhekaj06:54
- J. Evans16:57
- Z. Bolduc15:20
- K. Dach13:29
- A. Texier14:34
- O. Kapanen11:50
Defence · 6
- K. Guhle25:02
- A. Engstrom10:42
- A. Carrier23:47
- L. Hutson21:55
- N. Dobson20:24
- A. Xhekaj11:02
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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