STRENGTHOTT
Linus Ullmark has been a season-long wall
Linus Ullmark: +8.1 GSAx over 8 games (0.945 SV%).
Preview · OTT at SJS
The Senators are the model's lean over the Sharks — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanSat, Oct 31
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 31, 9:03 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a OTT 3.4 - 3.0 SJS game with the Senators at 56% win probability.
Keys to the game
- Linus Ullmark has been a season-long wall. Linus Ullmark: +8.1 GSAx over 8 games (0.945 SV%).
- The Senators own the underlying play . The Senators own the underlying play — 51.4% 5v5 xG vs 41.9%.
- Regression watch: Sharks. The Sharks' PDO is 0.969 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Form Check
- The Sharks are underwater at -5 goal differential over their last 10.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | OTT | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 51.4% | 41.9% |
| Corsi% | 47.2% | 45.3% |
| PDO | 1.024 | 0.969 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Senators own the underlying play — 51.4% 5v5 xG vs 41.9%.
Regression Watch
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.969 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Senators' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: J. Johansson (-1.1 GSAx in 3 GP, 86.1% SV) vs Y. Askarov (+6.0 GSAx in 9 GP, 90.0% SV).
- Y. Askarov has the GSAx edge — 7.1 goals above his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 4:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
OTT 56%
57%
OTT
Model favorite
57%
43%
OTT50SJS
OTT by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score OTT 3.4–3.0 SJS; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
OTT← edge
edge →SJS
51.4%41.9%
47.2%45.3%
3.242.78
3.063.85
3.002.79
3.143.29
1.0240.969
OTT holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.024 vs 0.969) says OTT has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
OTT
5-4-1
-3 GD · 1d rest
SJS
4-5-1
-5 GD · 1d rest
1.024
OTT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.969
SJS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Senators own the underlying play
The Senators own the underlying play — 51.4% 5v5 xG vs 41.9%.
WARNINGSJS
Regression watch: Sharks
The Sharks' PDO is 0.969 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGOTT
Regression watch: Senators
The Senators' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Senators own the underlying play — 51.4% 5v5 xG vs 41.9%.
Regression watch
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.969 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Senators' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Senators own the underlying play — 51.4% 5v5 xG vs 41.9%.
- Goalie matchup: J. Johansson (-1.1 GSAx in 3 GP, 86.1% SV) vs Y. Askarov (+6.0 GSAx in 9 GP, 90.0% SV).
- Y. Askarov has the GSAx edge — 7.1 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Sharks are underwater at -5 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.969 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
OTT
vs LAK · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
J. Johansson
1 day rest.750 last start30:54 played
J. Johansson started last game and was relieved by S. Ersson (32:31 of it).
Backup Linus Ullmark · +8.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Pinto21:59
- T. Stützle22:21
- D. Batherson18:57
- F. Zetterlund13:25
- N. Cousins08:30
- M. Amadio18:19
- D. Cozens17:30
- C. Giroux15:22
- S. Halliday11:17
- H. Hodgson04:44
- R. Greig19:22
- A. Burakovsky04:54
Defence · 6
- A. Zub21:00
- J. Spence19:55
- N. Matinpalo12:37
- T. Kleven14:42
- T. Chabot22:37
- J. Sanderson29:17
SJS
vs VAN · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
Y. Askarov
1 day rest.920 last start59:37 played
Backup Alex Nedeljkovic · +2.4 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- W. Smith17:44
- T. Dellandrea11:36
- F. Bystedt10:28
- B. Goodrow11:41
- M. Marchment17:36
- I. Stenberg17:59
- K. Sherwood18:01
- C. Graf17:42
- M. Celebrini22:56
- T. Toffoli12:29
- M. Misa14:13
- A. Gaudette10:12
Defence · 6
- N. Allan13:06
- S. Dickinson14:27
- M. Kesselring19:01
- D. Orlov18:11
- D. Nurse23:01
- J. Trouba24:00
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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