TACTICAL
The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.8%
The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Preview · BUF at LAK
Sabres at Kings: too close to call
The model's leanSat, Oct 31
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 31, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Sabres and Kings are about as close to a pick'em as the model gets, and the honest verdict is that margins will decide it.
The model projects the Sabres at 3.2 goals and the Kings at 3.3. It gives the Kings a 52% win probability, which is a coin flip with a slight lean.
The Sabres' real case is territorial. At five-on-five they take more of the shot attempts, and that is the tilt to expect in this game.
The season five-on-five numbers show the split:
| Metric | BUF | LAK |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 51.0% | 49.3% |
| Shot attempt share | 52.8% | 47.7% |
| PDO | 0.992 | 0.996 |
The Sabres come in underwater, with a goal differential of -6 over their last 10 games.
Goaltending is where the Kings have the bigger question. D. Kuemper was beatable last time out, stopping just 77.3% of shots in his last start.
C. Ellis has a save percentage of 88.0%. He has let in 0.4 more goals than his shots should have allowed over 5 games. D. Kuemper sits at 87.8% and has let in 5.4 more goals than his shots should have allowed over 8 games, a bigger deficit over a bigger sample.
Read it the way the model does: a toss-up, with Buffalo's territory on one side of the ledger and the Kings' edge on the other.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 4:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
LAK 52%
52%
LAK
Model favorite
48%
52%
BUF50LAK
LAK by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score BUF 3.2–3.3 LAK; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
BUF← edge
edge →LAK
51.0%49.3%
52.8%47.7%
3.472.97
3.343.06
3.082.83
3.543.50
0.9920.996
BUF holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.992 vs 0.996) says LAK has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
BUF
4-3-3
-6 GD · 1d rest
LAK
4-5-1
-3 GD · 1d rest
0.992
BUF PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.996
LAK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
Too close to call
Win probability splits 52%–48% — margins decide this one.
TACTICALLAK
D. Kuemper was beatable last time out
D. Kuemper stopped just 77.3% in his last start.
TACTICALBUF
C. Ellis was beatable last time out
C. Ellis stopped just 82.9% in his last start.
Where the edges live
- The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Sabres drive Corsi at 52.8% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: C. Ellis (-0.4 GSAx in 5 GP, 88.0% SV) vs D. Kuemper (-5.4 GSAx in 8 GP, 87.8% SV).
- The Sabres are underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
BUF
vs ANA · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
C. Ellis
1 day rest.829 last start59:56 played
Backup Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · -4.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- Z. Benson19:30
- J. Norris13:51
- S. Carrick08:45
- J. Zucker11:04
- P. Krebs15:55
- J. Quinn18:28
- B. Malenstyn13:11
- T. Kozak12:14
- R. McLeod13:45
- T. Thompson17:49
- N. Ostlund19:26
- J. Doan14:00
Defence · 6
- O. Zellweger18:14
- M. Samuelsson25:27
- O. Power23:55
- R. Dahlin26:00
- D. Gilbert10:35
- L. Crevier12:39
LAK
vs OTT · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
D. Kuemper
1 day rest.773 last start62:56 played
Backup Anton Forsberg · +1.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Kempe22:01
- A. Panarin24:07
- T. Moore19:03
- A. Laferriere22:18
- T. Ward05:35
- S. Laughton15:45
- J. Armia13:28
- A. Lee09:50
- Q. Byfield20:33
- E. Haula13:41
- S. Helenius05:16
- C. Perry17:59
Defence · 6
- B. Dumoulin21:01
- J. Edmundson16:47
- D. Doughty22:54
- M. Anderson18:44
- E. Gustafsson24:42
- B. Clarke11:37
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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