TACTICAL
The Oilers own the underlying play
The Oilers own the underlying play — 51.2% 5v5 xG vs 48.1%.
Preview · EDM at NYI
Oilers at Islanders: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanSat, Oct 31
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 31, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Edmonton and the Islanders look evenly matched, and the numbers won't pick a clear winner. The Oilers have the better underlying play, but New York controls more of the shot flow, and that split defines this game.
The model projects Edmonton to edge it, 3.3 goals to 3.2, which gives the Oilers a 51% chance to win. That is about as close to a pick'em as you will find.
Edmonton owns the underlying play. The Oilers hold 51.2% of expected goals at five-on-five, against 48.1% for New York. The Islanders push back on shot attempts, where they hold 51.8% to Edmonton's 47.7%, so expect the territorial tilt to favor New York.
The bigger caution is the Oilers' luck. Their PDO, the combined shooting and save percentage, sits at 1.037, a hot reading that should bring some regression. The Islanders are at 1.012.
In goal, T. Jarry has allowed more goals than his workload should have, sitting at -3.9 goals saved above expected through six games. His save percentage is 88.9%.
I. Sorokin has the goals-saved edge. He is at +2.8 over nine games with a 91.5% save percentage, and he sits 6.7 goals above his counterpart this season.
Figures come from the NHL API and Backcheck's expected goals model.
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 2:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
EDM 51%
51%
EDM
Model favorite
51%
49%
EDM50NYI
EDM by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score EDM 3.3–3.2 NYI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
EDM← edge
edge →NYI
51.2%48.1%
47.7%51.8%
3.092.96
2.953.19
4.233.00
3.232.62
1.0371.012
EDM holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.037 vs 1.012) says EDM has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
EDM
7-2-1
+10 GD · 2d rest
NYI
6-2-2
+3 GD · 1d rest
1.037
EDM PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.012
NYI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Islanders drive Corsi at 51.8%
The Islanders drive Corsi at 51.8% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGEDM
Regression watch: Oilers
The Oilers' PDO is 1.037 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A genuine coin flip
Win probability splits 49%–51% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Oilers own the underlying play — 51.2% 5v5 xG vs 48.1%.
- The Islanders drive Corsi at 51.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.037 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Oilers own the underlying play — 51.2% 5v5 xG vs 48.1%.
- The Islanders drive Corsi at 51.8% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: T. Jarry (-3.9 GSAx in 6 GP, 88.9% SV) vs I. Sorokin (+2.8 GSAx in 9 GP, 91.5% SV).
- I. Sorokin has the GSAx edge — 6.7 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.037 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
EDM
vs CGY · Wed, Oct 28
Expected in goal
T. Jarry
2 days rest1.000 last start60:00 played
Backup Devon Levi · +0.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- T. Frederic11:16
- J. Dickinson13:00
- M. Joseph13:12
- A. Formenton12:12
- L. Draisaitl19:06
- C. Dach16:50
- K. Kapanen18:06
- O. Michaels10:39
- I. Howard10:21
- V. Podkolzin16:08
- R. Nugent-Hopkins18:23
- C. McDavid18:50
Defence · 6
- E. Bouchard22:12
- C. Murphy20:35
- R. Shea20:51
- M. Ekholm18:44
- T. Emberson16:19
- S. Mukhamadullin19:16
NYI
vs MIN · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
I. Sorokin
1 day rest.885 last start60:33 played
Backup Semyon Varlamov · +4.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Schenn14:18
- A. Duclair14:07
- B. Horvat20:57
- K. Palmieri17:03
- M. Chaffee08:57
- K. MacLean09:02
- V. Eklund12:52
- J. Pageau15:56
- E. Heineman17:09
- C. Cizikas11:02
- O. Palat15:44
- S. Holmstrom20:18
Defence · 6
- A. Pelech23:49
- R. Pulock00:51
- L. Stanley26:16
- S. Mayfield15:51
- M. Schaefer30:01
- T. DeAngelo21:26
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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