TACTICAL
The Lightning own the underlying play
The Lightning own the underlying play — 54.3% 5v5 xG vs 47.9%.
Preview · TBL at NSH
Lightning at Predators: a true toss-up
The model's leanSat, Oct 31
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 31, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Lightning and the Predators are about as even as the model can make two teams, and the lean toward Tampa Bay is slight. The reasons for the lean are clear, and so is the one thing that could erase it.
The model projects a close game, with TBL scoring 3.3 goals to NSH's 3.1. That gives the Lightning a 53% chance to win, which is a nudge, not a call.
Tampa Bay has the better process at 5-on-5. The Lightning hold 54.3% of expected goals, the model's estimate of how dangerous each chance is, against 47.9% for Nashville. They also take 55.0% of shot attempts, so expect the territorial tilt to show.
Form points the same way. Tampa Bay is 7-2-1 over its last 10, which makes it the hotter team by points pace.
The Predators are running cold. Their PDO is 0.982, and the draft expects it to recover upward. Tampa Bay's PDO sits at 1.001, so the Lightning are not relying on good fortune.
In goal, A. Vasilevskiy has played 9 games and carries an 87.6% save percentage. His goals saved above expected sit at -1.0, which means one more goal went in than the shots he faced should have produced.
J. Saros has played 10 games with a 90.2% save percentage. He has the same -1.0 in goals saved above expected, so the goalie numbers do not settle the question.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected-goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 2:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
TBL 53%
53%
TBL
Model favorite
53%
47%
TBL50NSH
TBL by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score TBL 3.3–3.1 NSH; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
TBL← edge
edge →NSH
54.3%47.9%
55.0%45.1%
3.542.91
2.983.16
3.672.85
3.173.08
1.0010.982
TBL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.001 vs 0.982) says TBL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
TBL
7-2-1
+8 GD · 1d rest
NSH
3-3-4
-4 GD · 1d rest
1.001
TBL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.982
NSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Lightning drive Corsi at 55.0%
The Lightning drive Corsi at 55.0% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGNSH
Regression watch: Predators
The Predators' PDO is 0.982 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A true toss-up
Win probability splits 47%–53% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Lightning own the underlying play — 54.3% 5v5 xG vs 47.9%.
- The Lightning drive Corsi at 55.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Predators' PDO is 0.982 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Lightning own the underlying play — 54.3% 5v5 xG vs 47.9%.
- The Lightning drive Corsi at 55.0% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: A. Vasilevskiy (-1.0 GSAx in 9 GP, 87.6% SV) vs J. Saros (-1.0 GSAx in 10 GP, 90.2% SV).
- The Lightning are the hotter team by points pace (7-2-1 over their last 10).
- The Predators' PDO is 0.982 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
TBL
vs WPG · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
A. Vasilevskiy
1 day rest.810 last start60:00 played
Backup Dennis Hildeby · -0.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- D. James11:48
- B. Point20:12
- J. Viel11:22
- P. Holmberg17:54
- B. Hagel21:47
- J. Guentzel22:51
- A. Cirelli19:00
- N. Kucherov16:13
- G. Goncalves12:15
- C. Geekie11:32
- I. Mikheyev16:06
Defence · 7
- R. McDonagh17:51
- C. D'Astous19:18
- J. Carlson13:12
- V. Hedman18:06
- E. Lilleberg08:58
- E. Cernak19:04
- J. Moser18:31
NSH
vs WSH · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
J. Saros
1 day rest.862 last start57:57 played
Backup Justus Annunen · -1.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- F. Forsberg21:39
- A. Kerfoot12:29
- J. Drury18:15
- N. Hoglander10:00
- M. Bourque17:08
- M. Wood12:29
- R. Colton15:04
- J. Marchessault17:10
- A. Edstrom17:15
- R. O'Reilly21:42
- S. Stamkos20:26
Defence · 7
- A. Wilsby18:06
- J. Struble14:58
- N. Hague08:39
- N. Perbix18:09
- D. Hunt11:51
- R. Josi22:56
- B. Skjei19:47
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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