TACTICAL
The Red Wings own the underlying play
The Red Wings own the underlying play — 52.9% 5v5 xG vs 49.8%.
Preview · STL at DET
The Red Wings are the model's lean over the Blues — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanSat, Oct 31
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 31, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans toward Detroit, and the case starts at five-on-five, where the Red Wings have been the better team on the ice.
Detroit's edge shows up in the underlying numbers, which measure chances rather than the goals that happened to go in. The Red Wings hold the bigger share of expected goals, a measure that gives each shot a value based on how often shots like it become goals. They also take the bigger share of shot attempts, which counts every try whether or not it reaches the net. The model turns that edge into a 55% chance that Detroit wins, with a projected score of STL 3.0, DET 3.3.
| Five-on-five, season | STL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 49.8% | 52.9% |
| Shot attempt share | 49.0% | 53.3% |
| PDO (shooting plus save percentage) | 0.981 | 0.993 |
The Blues are the team to watch. Their PDO, which adds shooting and save percentage together, is running cold, which makes them due for positive regression. That works in St. Louis's favor, and it is the part of the lean most likely to shift.
In goal, J. Hofer has the edge in the matchup. Over nine games, he has saved 6.2 more goals than expected, while J. Gibson has let in 3.3 more than expected. J. Hofer's save percentage is 92.3%, and J. Gibson's is 87.4%.
The lean is Detroit, and the Blues' cold PDO is the number that could change it.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 1:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
DET 55%
55%
DET
Model favorite
45%
55%
STL50DET
DET by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score STL 3.0–3.3 DET; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
STL← edge
edge →DET
49.8%52.9%
49.0%53.3%
2.943.32
2.972.95
3.002.69
2.922.77
0.9810.993
DET holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.981 vs 0.993) says DET has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
STL
5-4-1
+4 GD · 1d rest
DET
5-2-3
+0 GD · 1d rest
0.981
STL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.993
DET PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Red Wings drive Corsi at 53.3%
The Red Wings drive Corsi at 53.3% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGSTL
Regression watch: Blues
The Blues' PDO is 0.981 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Red Wings own the underlying play — 52.9% 5v5 xG vs 49.8%.
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 53.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Blues' PDO is 0.981 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Red Wings own the underlying play — 52.9% 5v5 xG vs 49.8%.
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 53.3% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Hofer (+6.2 GSAx in 9 GP, 92.3% SV) vs J. Gibson (-3.3 GSAx in 9 GP, 87.4% SV).
- J. Hofer has the GSAx edge — 9.6 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Blues' PDO is 0.981 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
STL
vs BOS · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
J. Hofer
1 day rest.968 last start60:00 played
Backup Jordan Binnington · -6.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Toropchenko14:30
- D. Dvorsky11:49
- R. Thomas18:42
- J. Snuggerud15:18
- P. Suter14:39
- J. Berggren13:17
- A. Kaskimaki13:10
- J. Neighbours13:45
- C. McMichael15:18
- D. Holloway15:25
- M. McTavish15:20
- P. Buchnevich15:55
Defence · 6
- P. Broberg25:55
- C. Fowler21:35
- B. Carlo20:24
- A. Jiricek18:03
- C. Parayko17:31
- J. Barron15:24
DET
vs CHI · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
J. Gibson
1 day rest.947 last start60:00 played
Backup Daniil Tarasov · +4.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Dries12:57
- A. Copp18:08
- L. Raymond18:49
- M. Rasmussen16:21
- M. Brandsegg-Nygård15:23
- N. Danielson15:46
- V. Arvidsson17:07
- C. Mazur09:29
- J. Compher12:16
- K. Kolesar11:31
- E. Finnie18:02
- A. DeBrincat18:00
Defence · 6
- B. Chiarot21:09
- A. Englund15:09
- A. Johansson15:43
- M. Seider24:17
- W. Wallinder17:27
- J. Faulk20:26
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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