TACTICAL
The Bruins own the underlying play
The Bruins own the underlying play — 46.8% 5v5 xG vs 41.6%.
Preview · CHI at BOS
The Bruins are the model's lean over the Blackhawks — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanSat, Oct 31
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 31, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans Boston and projects a CHI 3.0 - 3.5 BOS game. That lean rests less on the scoreboard than on who has been controlling play.
The model gives the Bruins a 56% win probability, a lean rather than a lock. Boston owns the underlying play. Its share of expected goals at five-on-five, a measure of the scoring chances each team creates against the chances it allows, is higher than Chicago's. Its share of shot attempts, the count of all shots aimed at the net, points to the territorial tilt the model expects. The table below has the season five-on-five figures.
| Metric | CHI | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share, five-on-five | 41.6% | 46.8% |
| Shot attempt share | 44.2% | 49.8% |
| PDO | 0.978 | 1.057 |
The regression story runs in both directions. Boston's PDO is running hot, so some regression should be expected. Chicago's is running cold and is due for positive regression.
Boston also arrives as the hotter team by points pace, going 7-2-1 over its last 10 games. Chicago is underwater on the goal ledger, with a -11 goal differential over its last 10.
In goal, S. Knight has +4.5 goals saved above expected (GSAx) through 11 games played (GP). His save percentage is 89.7%. J. Swayman has +7.9 GSAx over the same 11 games, with a 91.2% save percentage.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 1:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
BOS 56%
56%
BOS
Model favorite
44%
56%
CHI50BOS
BOS by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score CHI 3.0–3.5 BOS; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CHI← edge
edge →BOS
41.6%46.8%
44.2%49.8%
2.692.99
3.773.40
2.083.57
3.692.29
0.9781.057
BOS holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.978 vs 1.057) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CHI
4-6-0
-11 GD · 1d rest
BOS
7-2-1
+20 GD · 1d rest
0.978
CHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.057
BOS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Bruins drive Corsi at 49.8%
The Bruins drive Corsi at 49.8% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGBOS
Regression watch: Bruins
The Bruins' PDO is 1.057 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGCHI
Regression watch: Blackhawks
The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.978 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Bruins own the underlying play — 46.8% 5v5 xG vs 41.6%.
- The Bruins drive Corsi at 49.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Bruins' PDO is 1.057 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.978 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Bruins own the underlying play — 46.8% 5v5 xG vs 41.6%.
- The Bruins drive Corsi at 49.8% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: S. Knight (+4.5 GSAx in 11 GP, 89.7% SV) vs J. Swayman (+7.9 GSAx in 11 GP, 91.2% SV).
- The Bruins are the hotter team by points pace (7-2-1 over their last 10).
- The Blackhawks are underwater at -11 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Bruins' PDO is 1.057 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CHI
vs DET · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
S. Knight
1 day rest.900 last start59:16 played
Backup Arvid Soderblom · -2.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- R. Donato12:57
- O. Moore11:41
- J. Greenway16:01
- A. Frondell11:44
- R. Greene13:56
- C. Smith15:46
- T. Bertuzzi14:02
- R. Kantserov17:41
- T. Teravainen17:32
- P. Kane14:23
- F. Nazar14:34
- C. Bedard18:22
Defence · 6
- S. Rinzel15:43
- K. Korchinski13:04
- I. Cole21:03
- W. Kaiser22:36
- A. Levshunov24:24
- A. Vlasic18:44
BOS
vs STL · Thu, Oct 29
Expected in goal
J. Swayman
1 day rest.778 last start60:00 played
Backup Michael DiPietro · +5.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Peterka18:19
- C. Mittelstadt15:58
- P. Zacha21:00
- E. Lindholm15:36
- M. Geekie15:20
- J. Hagens15:42
- M. Kastelic10:11
- M. Poitras08:52
- T. Jeannot10:51
- D. Pastrnak21:28
- M. Khusnutdinov12:16
- F. Minten15:50
Defence · 6
- M. Lohrei18:28
- W. Borgen17:25
- H. Lindholm23:21
- C. McAvoy23:56
- C. Clifton14:12
- N. Zadorov19:05
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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