WARNINGCGY
Dustin Wolf has leaked goals all season
Dustin Wolf: -8.6 GSAx over 6 games.
Shoot from everywhere — volume beats a cold crease.
Preview · SEA at CGY
Kraken at Flames: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanFri, Oct 30
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 30, 9:02 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a SEA 3.1 - 3.3 CGY game with the Flames at 53% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- Dustin Wolf has leaked goals all season. Dustin Wolf: -8.6 GSAx over 6 games.
- The Flames drive Corsi at 51.7% . The Flames drive Corsi at 51.7% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Flames. The Flames' PDO is 0.934 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Form Check
- The Flames are underwater at -9 goal differential over their last 10.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | SEA | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 45.3% | 45.3% |
| Corsi% | 43.1% | 51.7% |
| PDO | 1.056 | 0.934 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Flames drive Corsi at 51.7% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Flames' PDO is 0.934 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.056 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: P. Grubauer (-1.4 GSAx in 8 GP, 89.8% SV) vs D. Cooley (+4.0 GSAx in 7 GP, 91.4% SV).
- D. Cooley has the GSAx edge — 5.4 goals above his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
CGY 53%
53%
CGY
Model favorite
47%
53%
SEA50CGY
CGY by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score SEA 3.1–3.3 CGY; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
SEA← edge
edge →CGY
45.3%45.3%
43.1%51.7%
2.852.92
3.443.52
3.692.33
3.543.75
1.0560.934
SEA holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.056 vs 0.934) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
SEA
6-3-1
-4 GD · 1d rest
CGY
5-5-0
-9 GD · 1d rest
1.056
SEA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.934
CGY PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Flames drive Corsi at 51.7%
The Flames drive Corsi at 51.7% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGCGY
Regression watch: Flames
The Flames' PDO is 0.934 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGSEA
Regression watch: Kraken
The Kraken's PDO is 1.056 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Flames drive Corsi at 51.7% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Flames' PDO is 0.934 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.056 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Flames drive Corsi at 51.7% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: P. Grubauer (-1.4 GSAx in 8 GP, 89.8% SV) vs D. Cooley (+4.0 GSAx in 7 GP, 91.4% SV).
- D. Cooley has the GSAx edge — 5.4 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Flames are underwater at -9 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Flames' PDO is 0.934 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
SEA
vs TOR · Wed, Oct 28
Expected in goal
P. Grubauer
1 day rest.818 last start59:51 played
Backup Joey Daccord · -0.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Eberle18:13
- C. Stephenson19:08
- M. Beniers20:26
- M. Samoskevich14:21
- R. Winterton11:02
- B. Catton15:05
- J. Nyman08:42
- S. Wright16:43
- B. Meyers11:38
- B. McMann19:05
- K. Kakko14:10
- F. Gaudreau14:49
Defence · 6
- A. Larsson19:21
- C. Fleury08:18
- J. Mahura11:07
- V. Dunn23:49
- R. Evans22:57
- B. Montour27:10
CGY
vs EDM · Wed, Oct 28
Expected in goal
D. Cooley
1 day rest.889 last start20:00 played
D. Cooley started last game and was relieved by D. Wolf (40:00 of it).
Backup Dustin Wolf · -8.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- M. Backlund18:32
- M. Frost13:19
- Y. Sharangovich11:58
- R. Strome18:30
- M. Coronato18:12
- J. Castagna13:18
- A. Klapka14:46
- A. Suniev13:21
- M. Pospisil15:20
- B. Othmann00:52
- J. Farabee16:48
- M. Gridin22:31
Defence · 6
- K. Bahl22:43
- Z. Parekh17:17
- Z. Whitecloud19:38
- Y. Kuznetsov15:14
- J. Middleton19:49
- S. Nemec23:36
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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