Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 36 rush shots worth 3.68 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

Washington beat Carolina 5–2, a scoreline that obscures what unfolded: the Hurricanes controlled 59 percent of expected goals but could not finish, while the Capitals converted and escaped.
Carolina held 55 percent of shot attempts. L. Thompson stopped 31 of 33 shots at a 0.939 save percentage, saving 2.35 more goals than expected. B. Bussi stopped 22 of 27 shots at a 0.815 save percentage, allowing 1.97 more goals than expected.
The high-danger chances broke 7–2 for Washington. Carolina scored 2 goals on 36 rush chances; Washington scored 3 on 22.
A. Tuch scored off the rush early, with C. Hutson matching him shortly after, also off the rush. Tuch added another on a P. Dubois rebound 3 seconds after the shot. J. Chychrun extended the advantage to 4–0 with a power-play snap shot from 54 feet, a 3 percent expected goal chance. R. Leonard added another off the rush.
S. Aho cut it to 4–1 on the power play, 4 seconds after a blocked shot. L. Stankoven's tip-in from 7 feet in the third, also off the rush, finished the scoring.
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.
Capitals pull away from the Hurricanes
The Hurricanes deserved better.
The board read WSH 5, CAR 2. The chances read WSH 3.0, CAR 4.3.
The Capitals scored 2.0 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.
A. Tuch makes it 1–0.
High-danger looks: WSH 1 of 2, CAR 1 of 7.
Capitals pull away from the Hurricanes
A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.
Read the full breakdownWrist shot from 15 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past B. Bussi. 8s after a CAR hit by J. Martinook. Win probability moved 15 points.On the ice: T. Wilson, A. Tuch, P. Dubois, V. Desharnais, C. Hutson · against J. Staal, J. Martinook, N. Ehlers, S. Walker, K. Miller
Snap shot from 30 feet, a 12% chance (off the rush), past B. Bussi. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: B. Jenner, A. Beauvillier, T. Liljegren, M. Fehérváry, J. Sourdif · against T. Hall, S. Gostisbehere, L. Stankoven, J. Blake, C. Legault
Backhander from 6 feet, a 12% chance (a rebound), past B. Bussi. 3s after a WSH shot by P. Dubois. Win probability moved 10 points.On the ice: B. Jenner, A. Beauvillier, T. Liljegren, M. Fehérváry, J. Sourdif · against N. Deslauriers, M. Jankowski, S. Gostisbehere, W. Carrier, C. Legault
Snap shot from 54 feet, a 3% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past B. Bussi.On the ice: J. Kyrou, V. Desharnais, A. Protas, C. Hutson, I. Protas · against T. Hall, S. Gostisbehere, S. Aho, J. Blake, C. Legault
Snap shot from 18 feet, a 19% chance (off the rush), past L. Thompson. 4s after a CAR block.On the ice: T. Hall, N. Ehlers, S. Walker, K. Miller, L. Stankoven · against A. Ovechkin, D. Strome, J. Chychrun, T. Liljegren, R. Leonard
Snap shot from 9 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past B. Bussi. 8s after a WSH faceoff win by D. Strome.On the ice: J. Chychrun, J. Kyrou, T. Liljegren, A. Protas, I. Protas · against N. Deslauriers, M. Jankowski, S. Walker, E. Robinson, K. Miller
Tip-in from 7 feet, a 10% chance (off the rush), past L. Thompson. 6s after a CAR block.On the ice: N. Ehlers, S. Walker, K. Miller, A. Svechnikov, L. Stankoven · against T. Wilson, A. Tuch, M. Roy, P. Dubois, M. Fehérváry
score reads WSH–CAR
CAR went 1-for-22 from medium danger on 2.49 expected goals — 1.5 left on the table.
WSH finished +2.0 against expected, CAR -2.4.
Snap shots carried the volume: WSH went 3-for-12, CAR 1-for-31. WSH scored 3 of theirs off the rush.
Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.
The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
Best skater on the ice by our rating: A. Svechnikov (CAR), 19:51 of ice, 0-1, 78% of the expected goals while he was out.
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. TuchR | 16:38 | 2-0 | 3 | 0.40 | 21 | 1/0 | 1.57 | 5.67 | A |
| P. DuboisC | 12:08 | 0-2 | 1 | 0.04 | 42 | 1/2 | 1.33 | 6.59 | A |
| D. StromeC | 13:11 | 0-2 | 2 | 0.28 | 31 | 0/0 | 1.35 | 6.17 | A |
| J. ChychrunD | 18:51 | 1-1 | 3 | 0.04 | 52 | 0/1 | 1.46 | 4.65 | A |
| I. ProtasL | 11:32 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.00 | 76 | 0/0 | 0.90 | 4.66 | B |
| C. HutsonD | 17:08 | 1-0 | 3 | 0.19 | 56 | 0/2 | 0.95 | 3.33 | B |
| R. LeonardR | 12:08 | 1-0 | 3 | 0.52 | 32 | 0/0 | 0.83 | 4.13 | B |
| A. ProtasL | 17:36 | 0-1 | 2 | 0.38 | 44 | 0/0 | 0.73 | 2.50 | C |
| A. BeauvillierR | 13:55 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.49 | 74 | 0/0 | 0.65 | 2.79 | C |
| J. SourdifC | 13:00 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 79 | 2/1 | 0.44 | 2.03 | C |
| J. KyrouR | 12:16 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.25 | 65 | 0/0 | 0.37 | 1.83 | C |
| B. JennerC | 16:18 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.12 | 48 | 0/0 | 0.41 | 1.51 | C |
| T. WilsonR | 16:37 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.00 | 27 | 0/0 | 0.28 | 0.99 | D |
| A. OvechkinL | 12:46 | 0-1 | 1 | 0.11 | 23 | 0/0 | 0.20 | 0.93 | D |
| T. LiljegrenD | 18:48 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 46 | 0/0 | -0.04 | -0.13 | D |
| V. DesharnaisD | 21:15 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 36 | 0/0 | -0.11 | -0.31 | D |
| M. RoyD | 22:29 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 21 | 0/0 | -0.39 | -1.04 | D |
| M. FehérváryD | 19:29 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.21 | 32 | 0/1 | -0.40 | -1.24 | F |
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. SvechnikovR | 19:51 | 0-1 | 6 | 0.99 | 78 | 2/0 | 2.64 | 7.98 | A+ |
| L. StankovenC | 20:15 | 1-0 | 4 | 0.41 | 80 | 0/0 | 1.82 | 5.39 | A+ |
| S. AhoC | 18:39 | 1-0 | 2 | 0.47 | 78 | 1/1 | 1.67 | 5.36 | A+ |
| J. BlakeR | 19:27 | 0-1 | 3 | 0.36 | 76 | 0/0 | 1.40 | 4.31 | A |
| N. EhlersL | 19:02 | 0-0 | 4 | 0.61 | 80 | 1/0 | 1.28 | 4.03 | B |
| J. StaalC | 14:54 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.66 | 84 | 0/0 | 1.05 | 4.24 | B |
| W. CarrierL | 11:30 | 0-1 | 1 | 0.13 | 56 | 1/0 | 0.89 | 4.62 | B |
| J. SlavinD | 18:32 | 0-0 | 4 | 0.17 | 71 | 0/0 | 0.81 | 2.61 | B |
| K. MillerD | 22:11 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.00 | 50 | 0/0 | 0.81 | 2.19 | C |
| J. MartinookL | 12:47 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.34 | 77 | 0/0 | 0.61 | 2.87 | C |
| J. ChatfieldD | 17:33 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.03 | 67 | 0/0 | 0.45 | 1.55 | C |
| S. GostisbehereD | 22:40 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.01 | 66 | 0/0 | 0.36 | 0.96 | D |
| S. WalkerD | 19:05 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.01 | 45 | 2/1 | 0.19 | 0.59 | D |
| T. HallL | 13:34 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.13 | 58 | 0/1 | 0.12 | 0.53 | D |
| E. RobinsonL | 11:44 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 21 | 0/0 | -0.40 | -2.02 | F |
| C. LegaultD | 11:07 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.03 | 4 | 0/2 | -0.43 | -2.33 | F |
| M. JankowskiL | 12:35 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0/0 | -0.56 | -2.67 | F |
| N. DeslauriersL | 9:25 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0/0 | -0.60 | -3.82 | F |
xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.
Scratched, WSH: D. McIlrath, I. Miroshnichenko, E. Frank. Scratched, CAR: M. Reilly, J. Kotkaniemi. Referees Gord Dwyer and Justin Kea; linesmen Shandor Alphonso and Ryan Jackson.
WSH Created 3.03 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.38 xG) and 22 rush shots (2.34 xG).
CAR Created 4.35 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (1.43 xG) and 36 rush shots (3.68 xG).
WSH Allowed 4.35 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (1.43 xG) and 36 rush shots (3.68 xG).
CAR Allowed 3.03 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.38 xG) and 22 rush shots (2.34 xG).
WSH Rush shots 22–36, rush xG 2.34–3.68 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
CAR Rush shots 36–22, rush xG 3.68–2.34 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
WSH 1-for-2 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.13 PP xG.
CAR 1-for-6 on the power play (17%; league ≈21%) with 1.97 PP xG.
WSH +2.35 goals saved above expected on 33 shots against.
CAR -1.97 goals saved above expected on 27 shots against.
WSH Took 8 penalties for 16 PIM vs 5 for 18 on the other side.
CAR Took 5 penalties for 18 PIM vs 8 for 16 on the other side.
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
WSH Finishing +1.97 goals vs xG plus +2.35 GSAx of save luck = +4.32 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
CAR Finishing -2.35 goals vs xG plus -1.97 GSAx of save luck = -4.32 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
Gave up 36 rush shots worth 3.68 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
2 goals on 36 rush shots worth 3.68 xG.
L. Thompson stopped 31 of 33 (0.939) — +2.35 goals saved above expected in a 3-goal game.
Gave up 22 rush shots worth 2.34 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
3 goals on 22 rush shots worth 2.34 xG.
Scored 2 on 4.35 xG — -2.35 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
Each club shoots toward its own end — WSH left, CAR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.
Carolina comes in after two days of rest; Washington brings five days since its last game. The model favors the Hurricanes at 58% win probability in what it projects as a 3.0-to-3.6 game — an edge rooted in rest and execution, not dominance.
The Hurricanes' expected goals rate (49.6%) shows they're generating chances at nearly an even clip with their opponents. Their combined shooting and save percentage sits at 1.000, meaning they're converting at league average. Washington's shot attempt rate stands at 36.4%, a figure that matters more when fatigue sets in.
The slot will decide it. Carolina has scored four goals on 21 slot shots for a 19% conversion rate — the kind of efficiency that puts goalies in impossible spots. Washington has converted three times on 40 slot attempts, an 8% rate suggesting the Capitals need both volume and fresh legs to break through.
In goal, Washington starts C. Lindgren, who carries 1.3 goals saved above expected in one appearance with a 95.0% save percentage. Carolina counters with B. Bussi. Early-season sample sizes whisper rather than shout, but goaltending likely shapes the margin more than rest advantage alone.
Carolina holds a built-in edge — the model's lean is sound. But it's razor-thin, woven from recovery time and the kind of tight game where a rested team that doesn't execute can still lose to a fatigued one that does.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
CAR by 16 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score WSH 3.0–3.6 CAR; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
The Capitals come in on 5 days of rest; the other side on 2.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
Their most productive scoring zone over last 5 games.
Most goals from slot (3G on 40 shots, 8%) — deny that lane
Their most productive scoring zone over last 5 games.
Most goals from slot (4G on 21 shots, 19%) — deny that lane
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.