Motion-blurred skater in a gold and black sweater

Breakdown · BOS at WPG

Bruins steal one from the Jets against the run of play

Final / OTFri, Oct 2

The verdict · stolen

The Bruins stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.63–5.35 and won anyway.

BOS 4 · WPG 3

◆ By the ModelOct 2, 11:01 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Bruins won 4-3 in overtime. J. Peterka decided it at 3:21 of the extra frame, but Boston had no business escaping — Winnipeg dominated the entire game.

Winnipeg held 60% of expected goals at 5v5, the mark of thorough control that should have won by multiple goals. J. Swayman stopped 31 of 34 shots, an unlikely result given the pressure Winnipeg created. He finished 2.35 goals better than his workload warranted. He turned away all five high-danger chances from the slot. S. Skinner made 26 of 30 saves, but his team faced only 3.63 expected goals to the Bruins' 5.35.

The Jets' dominance evaporated in the finish. They created seven high-danger chances and converted zero. They crashed the net for eight rebound opportunities and buried one. The Bruins' path to victory was simple: rush, rely on goaltending, and steal one when the puck bounces. N. Zadorov and D. Pastrnak created the overtime chance, and J. Peterka finished it off. K. Connor had scored on the power play in the second, keeping Winnipeg close despite their inability to convert from prime areas.

Winnipeg will watch this one back and see a game they dominated and lost to goaltending and luck. That kind of variance doesn't repeat.

Three Stars: 1. K. Connor (WPG) — 1G, 1A; 2. N. Zadorov (BOS) — 2A; 3. D. Pastrnak (BOS) — 2A

The goals

WPG 0–1, 04:52 of the first. D. DeMelo, slap shot from 66 feet, a 1% chance by the model, past J. Swayman. Assists: M. Barron, A. Lowry. 7 seconds after a WPG shot by A. Lowry. Win probability moved 14 points.
BOS 1–1, 09:23 of the first. H. Lindholm, slap shot from 63 feet, a 3% chance by the model, past S. Skinner. Assists: M. Geekie, W. Borgen. 5 seconds after a BOS blocked shot by C. Perfetti. Win probability moved 15 points.
BOS 2–1, 15:20 of the first. J. Hagens, wrist shot from 8 feet, a 14% chance by the model (a rebound), past S. Skinner. Assists: N. Zadorov, M. Kastelic. 2 seconds after a BOS missed shot by N. Zadorov. Win probability moved 17 points.
WPG 2–2, 01:50 of the second on the power play. K. Connor, snap shot from 14 feet, a 16% chance by the model (a rebound), past J. Swayman. Assists: G. Vilardi, C. Perfetti. 2 seconds after a WPG blocked shot by N. Zadorov. Win probability moved 19 points.
WPG 2–3, 19:48 of the second into an empty net. M. Ferraro, wrist shot from 57 feet, a 7% chance by the model, past J. Swayman. Assists: A. Lowry, K. Connor. 6 seconds after a WPG faceoff win by A. Lowry. Win probability moved 25 points.
BOS 3–3, 18:22 of the third. E. Lindholm, tip-in from 19 feet, a 6% chance by the model, past S. Skinner. Assists: D. Pastrnak, M. Lohrei. 6 seconds after a BOS faceoff win by E. Lindholm. Win probability moved 42 points.
BOS 4–3, 03:21 of overtime. J. Peterka, shot from 23 feet, a 19% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Skinner. Assists: D. Pastrnak, N. Zadorov. Win probability moved 50 points.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · OT · Oct 2

BOS

WPG

Bruins steal one from the Jets against the run of play

Chances 3.6 – 5.3Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Jets deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

BOS

3.63

WPG

5.35

41% of the chances60%

The board read BOS 4, WPG 3. The chances read BOS 3.6, WPG 5.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

BOS

+0.4

goals above expected

BOS3.63 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

WPG5.35 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

The Jets left 2.4 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

The swing

+50

win-probability points

50% → 100% for BOS

WPG 100%the game, start to finish

BOS 100%P1 · P2 · P3

BOSOT 03:21

J. Peterka makes it 4–3.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games

Every goal, in order

P1 04:52WPGD. DeMelo1%0–1
P1 09:23BOSH. Lindholm3%1–1
P1 15:20BOSJ. Hagens14%2–1
P2 01:50WPGK. ConnorPP16%2–2
P2 19:48WPGM. FerraroEN7%2–3
P3 18:22BOSE. Lindholm6%3–3
OT 03:21BOSJ. Peterka19%4–3

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

BOS

53 shots

Final

109 shots

WPG

56 shots

BOS WPG GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

BOSWPG

1 / 3

0.80 xG

High danger

0 / 7

2.23 xG

2 / 22

2.26 xG

Medium

2 / 25

2.68 xG

1 / 49

0.57 xG

Low

1 / 38

0.44 xG

The Jets went 0 for 7 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

B+

J. Swayman

+1.3

BOS · 31/34 · 59:09

Best save · a 51% chance, wrist from 4 ft · P2 01:46

S. Skinner

−0.6

WPG · 26/30 · 60:05

Best save · a 32% chance, backhand from 6 ft · P2 15:22

Best skater on the ice

A+

WPG

K. Connor

L · impact 2.93

20:52

Ice time

1–1

G – A

1.06

Own xG

71%

xG share

Impact · top 4

K. Connor2.9A+

C. Perfetti2.0A+

D. Pastrnak2.0A+

E. Lindholm1.4A

Report card

BOSWPG

OffenseA-A+

DefenseFF

TransitionCC+

Special teamsFA+

GoaltendingA+C-

DisciplineC-B-

LuckA+F

Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown

Why it went the way it went

Why BOS won

01J. Swayman stole it
02Won against the run of play
03Dangerous off the rush

Why WPG lost

01Rush defense leaked all night
02Cold finishing night
03Deserved a better fate

Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Bruins steal one from the Jets against the run of play

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 12 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 9–12

04:52WPGD. DeMelo(M. Barron, A. Lowry)0–1
Slap shot from 66 feet, a 1% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past J. Swayman. 7s after a WPG shot by A. Lowry. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: A. Lowry, D. Samberg, N. Pionk, M. Barron, B. Lambert · against E. Lindholm, D. Pastrnak, J. Aspirot, J. Peterka, M. Lohrei
09:23BOSH. Lindholm(M. Geekie, W. Borgen)1–1
Slap shot from 63 feet, a 3% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past S. Skinner. 5s after a BOS block. Win probability moved 15 points.On the ice: H. Lindholm, E. Lindholm, D. Pastrnak, W. Borgen, J. Peterka · against A. Lowry, D. Samberg, N. Pionk, M. Barron, B. Lambert
15:20BOSJ. Hagens(N. Zadorov, M. Kastelic)2–1
Wrist shot from 8 feet, a 14% chance (a rebound), past S. Skinner. 2s after a BOS miss by N. Zadorov. Win probability moved 17 points.On the ice: S. Kuraly, H. Lindholm, W. Borgen, T. Jeannot, M. Kastelic · against N. Niederreiter, V. Namestnikov, M. Ferraro, A. Iafallo, T. Bauer

2ndshots 8–12

01:50WPGK. Connorpower play(G. Vilardi, C. Perfetti)2–2
Snap shot from 14 feet, a 16% chance (a rebound), past J. Swayman. 2s after a WPG block. Win probability moved 19 points.On the ice: N. Niederreiter, V. Namestnikov, M. Ferraro, A. Iafallo, T. Bauer · against S. Kuraly, T. Jeannot, M. Kastelic, J. Aspirot, M. Lohrei
19:48WPGM. Ferraroempty net(A. Lowry, K. Connor)2–3
Wrist shot from 57 feet, a 7% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past J. Swayman. 6s after a WPG faceoff win by A. Lowry. Win probability moved 25 points.On the ice: N. Niederreiter, M. Ferraro, A. Iafallo, N. Pionk, M. Barron · against S. Kuraly, T. Jeannot, M. Kastelic, J. Aspirot, M. Lohrei

3rdshots 12–8

18:22BOSE. Lindholm(D. Pastrnak, M. Lohrei)3–3
Tip-in from 19 feet, a 6% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past S. Skinner. 6s after a BOS faceoff win by E. Lindholm. Win probability moved 42 points.

OTshots 1–1

03:21BOSJ. Peterka(D. Pastrnak, N. Zadorov)4–3
Shot from 23 feet, a 19% chance (off the rush), past S. Skinner. Win probability moved 50 points.

score reads BOS–WPG

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.63

BOS chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.4

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.011

BOS puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

51.4%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.63Expected goals5.35

WPG 60% of the chance quality

30Shots on goal33

3High-danger chances7

74All attempts (Corsi)70

Adjusted for score: BOS 52% · WPG 48%

Faceoffs · WPG won47%off67%neu40%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

BOS1 / 3 · 0.80 xG

WPG0 / 7 · 2.23 xG

Medium dangermid-range

BOS2 / 22 · 2.26 xG

WPG2 / 25 · 2.68 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

BOS1 / 49 · 0.57 xG

WPG1 / 38 · 0.44 xG

WPG went 0-for-7 from high danger on 2.23 expected goals — 2.2 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

BOS

4 G · 3.63 xG · +0.4

WPG

3 G · 5.35 xG · -2.4

0123456

BOS finished +0.4 against expected, WPG -2.4.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

BOS

WRIST1/27

SLAP1/10

SNAP0/6

BACKHAND0/5

TIP IN1/3

WRAP AROUND0/1

DEFLECTED0/0

BAT0/0

OTHER1/22

WPG

WRIST1/28

SLAP1/8

SNAP1/9

BACKHAND0/5

TIP IN0/4

WRAP AROUND0/0

DEFLECTED0/1

BAT0/1

OTHER0/14

BOS

WPG

Off the rush

1 G on 31

3.04 xG

0 G on 32

3.15 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 6

0.36 xG

1 G on 8

1.20 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: BOS went 1-for-27, WPG 1-for-28.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Swayman

BOS · 31/34 · .912

started · 59:09

+1.3

saved above expected

B+

the night

Attempts faced: 49
Avg chance faced: 8.8%
Stopped vs expected: 0.959 vs 0.912
Rebounds allowed: 7 · 1 scored on

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/51.5+1.5

Medium1/222.4+1.4

Low1/220.4-0.6

Shorthanded1/111.7+0.7

Tips & deflections0/30.2+0.2

The save

51% chance stopped, a wrist from 4 ft · P2 01:46

The one to have back

1% chance went in, a slap from 66 ft · P1 04:52

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

S. Skinner

WPG · 26/30 · .867

started · 60:05

-0.6

saved above expected

the night

Attempts faced: 50
Avg chance faced: 6.8%
Stopped vs expected: 0.920 vs 0.932
Rebounds allowed: 6 · 1 scored on

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/30.8-0.2

Medium2/202.1+0.1

Low1/270.5-0.5

Shorthanded0/40.5+0.5

Tips & deflections1/30.2-0.8

The save

32% chance stopped, a backhand from 6 ft · P2 15:22

The one to have back

3% chance went in, a slap from 63 ft · P1 09:23

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: K. Connor (WPG), 20:52 of ice, 1-1, 71% of the expected goals while he was out.

BOS18 skaters

Skater	TOI	G-A	SOG	ixG	xG%	PD/PT	Impact	/60	Grade
D. PastrnakR	19:59	0-2	4	0.18	66	0/0	2.02	6.08	A+
E. LindholmC	14:58	1-0	5	0.52	71	0/1	1.45	5.79	A
J. PeterkaR	18:04	1-0	5	0.66	61	0/0	1.51	5.00	A
J. HagensC	12:52	1-0	1	0.14	78	0/0	1.01	4.70	B
N. ZadorovD	20:43	0-2	0	0.14	37	0/0	1.12	3.24	B
H. LindholmD	19:52	1-0	2	0.18	49	0/0	1.04	3.14	B
M. LohreiD	20:38	0-1	0	0.05	61	1/0	0.89	2.57	B
M. GeekieC	16:59	0-1	0	0.26	44	0/0	0.65	2.29	C
M. KastelicC	9:17	0-1	1	0.01	29	1/1	0.35	2.29	C
W. BorgenD	18:24	0-1	0	0.00	44	0/0	0.47	1.52	C
S. KuralyC	11:06	0-0	1	0.05	42	2/1	0.22	1.19	C
C. MittelstadtC	14:08	0-0	2	0.33	49	0/0	0.23	0.96	C
F. MintenC	15:28	0-0	1	0.10	51	0/0	0.13	0.50	D
J. AspirotD	16:09	0-0	3	0.33	44	0/2	0.10	0.38	D
M. KhusnutdinovC	14:33	0-0	0	0.08	38	0/0	-0.01	-0.04	D
C. CliftonD	18:24	0-0	2	0.27	31	0/0	-0.14	-0.47	F
P. ZachaC	18:34	0-0	3	0.26	25	0/0	-0.16	-0.50	F
T. JeannotL	10:15	0-0	0	0.07	29	0/0	-0.16	-0.93	F

WPG18 skaters

Skater	TOI	G-A	SOG	ixG	xG%	PD/PT	Impact	/60	Grade
K. ConnorL	20:52	1-1	9	1.06	71	0/0	2.93	8.43	A+
C. PerfettiC	16:11	0-1	4	1.40	84	0/0	1.98	7.36	A+
G. VilardiC	18:03	0-1	1	0.64	84	0/0	1.51	5.01	A
A. LowryC	15:44	0-2	2	0.17	19	0/0	1.22	4.66	A
M. BarronC	15:35	0-1	2	0.33	63	0/1	1.20	4.62	A
J. MorrisseyD	24:12	0-0	5	0.74	76	0/0	1.32	3.26	B
M. FerraroD	17:20	1-0	3	0.15	29	0/0	0.90	3.10	B
D. DeMeloD	21:10	1-0	1	0.01	47	0/0	0.83	2.34	B
M. ScheifeleC	21:21	0-0	0	0.31	73	1/0	0.80	2.24	C
I. RosenR	10:43	0-0	1	0.04	64	1/0	0.43	2.40	C
V. BjörckC	14:45	0-0	2	0.30	84	0/0	0.45	1.83	C
N. PionkD	23:23	0-0	2	0.05	50	0/0	0.22	0.57	D
D. SambergD	21:17	0-0	1	0.13	42	0/0	0.14	0.41	D
N. NiederreiterR	12:21	0-0	0	0.00	55	0/0	0.04	0.22	D
V. NamestnikovC	11:00	0-0	1	0.01	37	0/0	0.00	0.01	D
A. IafalloL	11:19	0-0	0	0.00	44	0/0	-0.06	-0.29	D
T. BauerD	6:00	0-0	0	0.00	48	2/3	-0.16	-1.60	F
B. LambertC	11:49	0-0	0	0.00	16	1/0	-0.32	-1.60	F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, BOS: C. McAvoy, M. Eyssimont, F. Brunet. Scratched, WPG: H. Fleury, J. St. Ivany, C. Koepke. Referees Eric Furlatt and Mike Sullivan; linesmen Brandon Gawryletz and Kiel Murchison.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F

DimensionBOSWPG

Offense

▸Basis

BOS Created 3.63 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 3 high-danger shots (0.80 xG) and 31 rush shots (3.04 xG).

WPG Created 5.35 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (2.23 xG) and 32 rush shots (3.15 xG).

A-

A+

100

Defense

▸Basis

BOS Allowed 5.35 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (2.23 xG) and 32 rush shots (3.15 xG).

WPG Allowed 3.63 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 3 high-danger shots (0.80 xG) and 31 rush shots (3.04 xG).

Transition

▸Basis

BOS Rush shots 31–32, rush xG 3.04–3.15 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

WPG Rush shots 32–31, rush xG 3.15–3.04 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

C+

Special teams

▸Basis

BOS 0-for-2 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.22 PP xG.

WPG 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 1.67 PP xG.

A+

100

Goaltending

▸Basis

BOS +2.35 goals saved above expected on 34 shots against.

WPG -0.37 goals saved above expected on 30 shots against.

A+

C-

Discipline

▸Basis

BOS Took 5 penalties for 13 PIM vs 4 for 11 on the other side.

WPG Took 4 penalties for 11 PIM vs 5 for 13 on the other side.

C-

B-

Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

BOS Finishing +0.37 goals vs xG plus +2.35 GSAx of save luck = +2.72 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

WPG Finishing -2.35 goals vs xG plus -0.37 GSAx of save luck = -2.72 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

A+

Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately

What the model flagged

STRENGTHBOS

J. Swayman stole it

J. Swayman stopped 31 of 34 (0.912) — +2.35 goals saved above expected in a 1-goal game.

WARNINGWPG

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 31 rush shots worth 3.04 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

WARNINGBOS

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 32 rush shots worth 3.15 xG (0 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHBOS

Dangerous off the rush

1 goals on 31 rush shots worth 3.04 xG.

SURPRISEBOS

Won against the run of play

The Bruins took it 4-3 in overtime with only 40% of expected goals (3.63–5.35).

LUCKWPG

Cold finishing night

Scored 3 on 5.35 xG — -2.35 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.

109 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

BOS

53 shots

Final

109 shots

WPG

56 shots

BOS WPG GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — BOS left, WPG right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

K. Connor

#81 · L · WPG

1 G · 1 A · 9 SOG · 20:52 on ice

N. Zadorov

#91 · D · BOS

0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 20:43 on ice

D. Pastrnak

#88 · R · BOS

0 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 19:59 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Fri, Oct 2

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelOct 11, 5:30 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Boston and Winnipeg are close to a coin flip. The model's lean toward the Jets is small enough that either side could win without much surprise, so treat the factors below as tiebreakers rather than verdicts.

Rest is the cleanest edge in this matchup. The Jets come in on 6 days of rest, and the Bruins on 2.

Boston controls the shot counts. The Bruins hold 50.9% of shot attempts, and the model expects that to show up as territorial tilt. Chance quality tells a different story. Winnipeg holds 49.3% of expected goals, a measure that weights each shot by how likely it is to score, while Boston sits at 46.3%.

The Bruins are also running hot, with a combined shooting-and-save figure of 1.053, and the model expects some of that to regress.

In goal, J. Swayman has kept out 6.3 more goals than an average goalie would have over five games. His save percentage is 93.2%. S. Skinner has kept out 1.9 more goals than an average goalie in three games, and his save percentage is 92.0%.

The model's read is still a true toss-up.

Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

WPG 55%

55%

WPG

Model favorite

45%

55%

BOS50WPG

WPG by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score BOS 3.0–3.4 WPG; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

BOS← edge

edge →WPG

46.3%49.3%

50.9%46.1%

2.903.15

3.363.25

3.332.60

2.173.00

1.0530.991

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.053 vs 0.991) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 0–1

BOS

1-0-0

+3 GD · 2d rest

WPG

0-0-0

+0 GD · 6d rest

1.053

BOS PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.991

WPG PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

TACTICALWPG

Rest edge

The Jets come in on 6 days of rest; the other side on 2.

Push the pace early against tired legs.

TACTICAL

The Bruins drive Corsi at 50.9%

The Bruins drive Corsi at 50.9% — expect territorial tilt.

WARNINGBOS

Regression watch: Bruins

The Bruins' PDO is 1.053 — running hot, expect some regression.

Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.

TACTICAL

A true toss-up

Win probability splits 55%–45% — margins decide this one.

Where the edges live

The Bruins drive Corsi at 50.9% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Bruins' PDO is 1.053 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Bruins drive Corsi at 50.9% — expect territorial tilt.
Goalie matchup: J. Swayman (+6.3 GSAx in 5 GP, 93.2% SV) vs S. Skinner (+1.9 GSAx in 3 GP, 92.0% SV).
The Bruins' PDO is 1.053 — running hot, expect some regression.
The Jets have 4 more days of rest.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

BOS

Expected in goal

J. Swayman

2 days rest1.000 last start

Backup Michael DiPietro · +0.5 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

WPG

Expected in goal

S. Skinner

6 days rest.875 last start

Backup Clay Stevenson · -0.8 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Keep going

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