The Capitals stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.53–5.64 and won anyway.
Washington won 7-4 by refusing to lose—despite yielding 62% of expected goals, the sort of advantage that usually ends in heartbreak. Utah owned the play; the Capitals owned the scoreboard.
The Mammoth controlled everything measurable. They held 62% of shot attempts (40–25) and 62% of expected goals (5.64–3.53). High-danger chances went 5–5, so Utah's edge came from sustained pressure, not desperation. Washington's three-goal margin came entirely from overperformance (3.47 goals above xG) and Utah's underperformance (1.64 under).
L. Thompson did the heavy lifting. The Washington goalie stopped 1.64 more than expected, turning a blowout into a theft. V. Vanecek gave up 2.61 over his workload, the gulf between a respectable effort and a collapse.
Washington's offense told two stories. They scored three times from low-danger spots—saves Utah's defense should have had. They also dominated the rush: three goals on 21 chances versus Utah's two on 39. Utah crashed the net effectively, creating five rebounding opportunities and converting one, but volume means nothing when the finishes don't match the possession.
Alex Ovechkin's wrist shot from the point at 19:54 of the third felt routine until it landed. By then, Washington had already stolen the rhythm Utah deserved.
The assists went to those who ran the offense. M. Sergachev (UTA) picked up three in 26:55; C. Keller (UTA) added three in 23:36. A. Ovechkin (WSH) answered with three goals in 18:27. One team created better chances. The other team finished them.
