Avalanche run the Jets off the ice on the underlying numbers
The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The underlying story
Colorado dominated the scoresheet and everything else. The Avalanche won 3–2, controlled 64% of expected goals (4.84–2.66), and held the Jets to 41% of shot attempts. Yet this wasn't a blowout—it was narrow. Colorado underperformed their xG by 1.84 goals. Hellebuyck kept Winnipeg in it.
The goaltending tells the real story. M. Blackwood was solid (22/24 saves, 0.917 SV%), but C. Hellebuyck stole the show, posting a 0.914 save percentage and stopping 1.84 goals above expected. That 1.84-goal gap—the exact amount Colorado wasted—meant the Avalanche's dominance barely showed on the scoreboard.
Winnipeg's formula: hit the rushes. The Jets generated two goals on 26 rush chances, making every transition count. Mark Scheifele's tip-in (09:39, third period) was the turning point, a goal from the doorstep.
Colorado had the offensive territory but couldn't execute. They created 10 rebound opportunities and converted only two. Winnipeg created five rebound chances and converted none—a sign of Colorado's structural dominance, yet the margin stayed tight because Colorado couldn't finish.
The high-danger chances split perfectly even: 5–5.
The danger ladder
COL went 2-for-29 from medium danger on 3.40 expected goals — 1.4 left on the table.
Finishing vs expected
COL finished -1.8 against expected, WPG -0.7 — C. Hellebuyck (WPG) saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Shot diet
Wrist shots carried the volume: COL went 2-for-20, WPG 0-for-20. WPG scored 2 of theirs off the rush.
- C. Hellebuyck (WPG) stopped 1.8 goals above expected.
- WPG was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 26 rush chances.
- WPG created 5 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- COL created 10 rebound opportunities (2 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- COL underperformed xG by 1.8 — wasted quality chances.
- C. Hellebuyck (WPG) saved 1.8 goals above expected — stole the show.