The Devils earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
New Jersey's 4–2 win over Nashville understates how thoroughly they dominated. The Devils controlled 67% of expected goals (5.20–2.51), a split that reflects not just shot volume but shot quality: New Jersey produced 0.090 expected goals per attempt while Nashville managed 0.051.
That quality differential shows up in the specifics. The Devils were lethally efficient on the rush, scoring 4 goals on 27 chances, while Nashville converted only 2 on 20. New Jersey generated eight high-danger chances to Nashville's four. The shot-attempt count (30–17) confirmed what the numbers told you: the Predators had no answer.
Nashville's survival owed entirely to goaltending. J. Annunen posted a 0.897 save percentage and stopped 2.2 goals above expected—a performance that kept a blowout from looking like one. Without that outperformance, the margin would have matched the underlying dominance.
New Jersey left a goal on the table themselves. They scored only 4 times on 5.20 expected goals, a 1.20-goal underperformance that J. Markstrom's solid outing (15/17 saves, +0.51 vs expected) could not overcome on the other end. The turning point was Timo Meier's wrist shot from the doorstep in the third period—exactly the kind of dangerous look New Jersey generated with frequency.