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Breakdown · WSH at MTL

J. Dobes stands tall as the Canadiens edge the Capitals

FinalSat, Feb 28
WSHWashington Capitals2MTLMontreal Canadiens6
The verdict · coin flip

The Canadiens won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

WSH 2 · MTL 6
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 4:53 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Montreal won 6-2, but the underlying numbers say Washington should have had the upper hand. The Capitals held an expected goals advantage of 4.51 to 4.29—yet underperformed by 2.51 goals. The Canadiens overperformed theirs by 1.71.

J. Dobes was the decisive factor. The Montreal goaltender posted a 0.931 save percentage on 27/29 stops, banking 2.51 goals above expected. Across the crease, C. Lindgren stopped 19 of 23 for Washington at 0.826.

Montreal controlled volume—25 shot attempts versus Washington's 29—but the high-danger count told a closer story: 9 for the hosts, 12 for the visitors. Combined, they generated 21 high-danger chances.

The Canadiens were lethal on transition. They scored five goals off 27 rush attempts, a conversion rate Washington couldn't match. N. Suzuki (1G, 2A in 18:25) and C. Caufield (2G in 16:19) did the damage. For Washington, A. Ovechkin netted twice in 15:30, but the team managed only one goal from six rebound opportunities—secondary chances squandered.

This was execution, not chaos. Montreal finished. Washington didn't. Dobes tilted every close decision toward his net.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Feb 28
WSH
2
MTL
6

J. Dobes stands tall as the Canadiens edge the Capitals

Chances 4.5 – 4.3Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Canadiens took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
WSH
4.51
MTL
4.29
51% of the chances49%

The board read WSH 2, MTL 6. The chances read WSH 4.5, MTL 4.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
MTL
+1.7
goals above expected
MTL4.29 expected · 6 scored
Expected
Scored
WSH4.51 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Canadiens scored 1.7 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 00:30MTLC. Caufield0–1
  2. P1 13:16WSHA. Ovechkin1–1
  3. P1 14:19MTLC. Caufield1–2
  4. P2 12:22MTLM. Matheson1–3
  5. P2 16:34MTLK. Dach1–4
  6. P3 12:12WSHA. Ovechkin2–4
  7. P3 16:44MTLN. SuzukiEN2–5
+1 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
WSH
42 shots
2
Final
80 shots
MTL
38 shots
6
WSH attackMTL attack
WSH MTL Goal
42
shots · 2 in
38
shots · 6 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
WSHMTL
2 / 12
2.74 xG
High danger
3 / 9
2.23 xG
0 / 13
1.37 xG
Medium
3 / 14
1.64 xG
0 / 31
0.39 xG
Low
0 / 31
0.42 xG

The Canadiens buried 3 of 9 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
J. Dobes
+2.5
MTL · 27/29
B
C. Lindgren
+0.3
WSH · 19/23
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

J. Dobes stands tall as the Canadiens edge the Capitals

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 10–7
  1. 00:30MTLC. Caufield0–1
  2. 13:16WSHA. Ovechkin(A. Beauvillier, D. Chisholm)1–1
  3. 14:19MTLC. Caufield(N. Suzuki, J. Struble)1–2
2ndshots 9–9
  1. 12:22MTLM. Matheson(Z. Bolduc, A. Newhook)1–3
  2. 16:34MTLK. Dach(N. Suzuki)1–4
3rdshots 10–9
  1. 12:12WSHA. Ovechkin(D. Strome, A. Beauvillier)2–4
  2. 16:44MTLN. Suzukiempty net2–5
  3. 18:35MTLJ. Evansempty net2–6

score reads WSH–MTL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.29
MTL chances
Goals their shots were worth
+1.7
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.075
MTL puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
49.1%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.51Expected goals4.29
WSH 51% of the chance quality
29Shots on goal25
12High-danger chances9
56All attempts (Corsi)54
Adjusted for score: WSH 56% · MTL 44%
Faceoffs · MTL won57%off54%neu40%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
WSH2 / 12 · 2.74 xG
MTL3 / 9 · 2.23 xG
Medium dangermid-range
WSH0 / 13 · 1.37 xG
MTL3 / 14 · 1.64 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
WSH0 / 31 · 0.39 xG
MTL0 / 31 · 0.42 xG

WSH went 0-for-13 from medium danger on 1.37 expected goals — 1.4 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
WSH
2 G · 4.51 xG · -2.5
MTL
6 G · 4.29 xG · +1.7
01234567

WSH finished -2.5 against expected, MTL +1.7.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
WSH
SNAP2/30
TIP IN0/5
SLAP0/4
WRIST0/2
BACKHAND0/0
DEFLECTED0/1
OTHER0/14
MTL
SNAP3/24
TIP IN0/4
SLAP0/3
WRIST1/4
BACKHAND2/3
DEFLECTED0/0
OTHER0/16
WSH
MTL
Off the rush
1 G on 23
2.41 xG
5 G on 27
3.55 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 6
1.23 xG
0 G on 2
0.09 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: WSH went 2-for-30, MTL 3-for-24. MTL scored 5 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
C. Lindgren
WSH · 19/23 · .826
+0.3
saved above expected
B
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger3/92.2-0.8
Medium3/141.6-1.4
Low0/310.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Dobes
MTL · 27/29 · .931
+2.5
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/122.7+0.7
Medium0/131.4+1.4
Low0/310.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

80 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
WSH
42 shots
2
Final
80 shots
MTL
38 shots
6
WSH attackMTL attack
WSH MTL Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — WSH left, MTL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
N. Suzuki
#14 · C · MTL
1 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 18:25 on ice · +4
C. Caufield
#13 · R · MTL
2 G · 0 A · 5 SOG · 16:19 on ice · +3
A. Ovechkin
#8 · L · WSH
2 G · 0 A · 6 SOG · 15:30 on ice · -2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Feb 28
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 4:51 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.6–2.6 game with the Canadiens at 50% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find—both teams have equal claim to winning on paper.

The underlying numbers explain why. Washington holds a slim 50.0% expected goals share at 5v5, while Montreal sits at 48.0%. But Corsi tells the same story: 49.0% for both. These are teams playing nearly identical hockey. The marginal advantage goes to the Capitals, but not by much.

Both are running hot, though, which matters. Washington's PDO is 1.018; Montreal's is 1.018. When a team's shooting and save percentages exceed their underlying quality, regression waits. The Capitals have earned their edge through luck that the Canadiens will eventually match.

The Canadiens' goaltending introduces a wrinkle. S. Montembeault is on a back-to-back—expect either a backup start or a tired starter. That changes the calculus.

On talent, both rosters have elite scorers in similar positions. Alex Ovechkin generates 0.97 expected goals per 60 minutes and has 19 goals and 17 assists; Cole Caufield matches him at 0.97 xG/60 while leading with 33 goals and 16 assists. Caufield is shooting 20.0%, Ovechkin at 13.8%—a gap that explains some of Montreal's outscoring but also suggests Caufield's finish can't sustain forever.

Anthony Beauvillier (0.89 xG/60, 14 goals, 9 assists, 10.4% shooting) provides secondary firepower for Washington. Oliver Kapanen (0.83 xG/60, 19 goals, 12 assists, 17.8% shooting) does the same for Montreal, with an extra dimension: he's buried 4 high-danger goals, making him a genuine threat in tight spaces.

Washington's defensive liability is Declan Chisholm. Montreal's is Mike Matheson. The Capitals earned their marginal advantage, but the underlying play is too close to call. Regression waits for both, but not before this game is decided.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

MTL 50%
50%
MTL
Model favorite
50%
50%
WSH50MTL

MTL by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score WSH 2.6–2.6 MTL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
WSH← edge
edge →MTL
50.0%48.0%
49.0%49.0%
2.622.41
2.622.62
2.182.24
1.791.96
1.0181.018

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.018 vs 1.018) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
WSH
6-3-1
+3 GD · 2d rest
MTL
6-2-2
+8 GD · 1d rest
1.018
WSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.018
MTL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch
  • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
  • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • S. Montembeault is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
WSH
Expected in goal
L. Thompson
2 days rest.958 last start
Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

MTL
Expected in goal
S. Montembeault
back-to-back.846 last start
Backup Jakub Dobes · +17.3 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
WSH
Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
MTL
Cole Caufield33G 16A
0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh
Oliver Kapanen19G 12A
0.83 xG/60 · 4 HD · 17.8% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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