The Sabres won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The Sabres rolled past the Lightning 6-2 in a game the underlying numbers suggested was far closer. Tampa held 52% of shot attempts (38–35), a 4.71–4.51 expected-goals edge, and a 9–4 advantage in high-danger chances. Yet they lost by four. Goaltending determined this gap entirely.
U. Luukkonen stopped 36 of 38 shots with a 0.947 save percentage, outperforming his expected save total by 2.71 goals. A. Vasilevskiy, Tampa's backup, conceded 9 goals on 14 shots—a 0.643 save percentage that underperformed expected outcomes by 3.20 goals. J. Johansson, Tampa's starter, actually outperformed expectations by 1.71 goals, but one backup's elite performance and another's catastrophic collapse determined the final margin far more than play at even strength.
Buffalo was lethal off the rush, converting 6 of 34 chances. Tampa managed only 2 of 33, despite being the team that dominated possession and chance quality. The Sabres also scored 3 goals from low-danger areas—plays the opposing goalie typically stops. Luukkonen's performance masked what was, for most of the game, a team that controlled neither possession nor shot quality.
This was a game where the scoreboard and the underlying data diverged sharply—a 6-2 final that rewarded execution in one dimension while ignoring evidence across nearly every other metric.
