WARNINGWSH
L. Thompson on a back-to-back
L. Thompson projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · MTL at WSH
Canadiens at Capitals: no daylight between these two
The model's leanWed, Oct 14
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 14, 9:00 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Washington gets the narrow nod in the model, projecting a 3.5-to-3.4 finish over Montreal. Nothing about this game separates the two clubs cleanly, so the real question is which edge holds up once the puck drops.
The Capitals have a 51% chance to win, which makes this about as close to a pick'em as you will find.
Both goalies project to start on the second night of a back-to-back, with no rest. J. Fowler and L. Thompson are the starters to watch, and a backup start or tired legs would change the picture quickly.
J. Fowler has 2.8 goals saved above expected through 3 games. His save percentage is 90.8%. L. Thompson has been the stronger of the two so far, with 4.3 goals saved above expected through 5 games, and a save percentage of 90.4%.
Montreal owns the underlying play. The Canadiens hold 48.5% of five-on-five expected goals, which means they have generated more quality chances over the season. Washington's share sits at 44.7%.
Montreal also takes 54.6% of shot attempts, so expect the Canadiens to spend more time in the offensive zone. Washington's share is 47.3%.
Luck is the wild card. Washington's combined shooting and save percentage is 1.034, which is running hot and should cool off. Montreal's is 0.960, running cold and due for positive regression.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected-goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:30 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
WSH 51%
51%
WSH
Model favorite
49%
51%
MTL50WSH
WSH by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score MTL 3.4–3.5 WSH; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
MTL← edge
edge →WSH
48.5%44.7%
54.6%47.3%
3.213.23
3.413.99
2.833.17
3.673.00
0.9601.034
The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (0.960 vs 1.034) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 6
MTL
3-2-1
-3 GD · 0d rest
WSH
3-3-0
+1 GD · 0d rest
0.960
MTL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.034
WSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGMTL
J. Fowler on a back-to-back
J. Fowler projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
TACTICAL
The Canadiens own the underlying play
The Canadiens own the underlying play — 48.5% 5v5 xG vs 44.7%.
TACTICAL
The Canadiens drive Corsi at 54.6%
The Canadiens drive Corsi at 54.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Where the edges live
- The Canadiens own the underlying play — 48.5% 5v5 xG vs 44.7%.
- The Canadiens drive Corsi at 54.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.034 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Canadiens' PDO is 0.960 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Canadiens own the underlying play — 48.5% 5v5 xG vs 44.7%.
- The Canadiens drive Corsi at 54.6% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Fowler (+2.8 GSAx in 3 GP, 90.8% SV) vs L. Thompson (+4.3 GSAx in 5 GP, 90.4% SV).
- L. Thompson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.034 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
MTL
vs BUF · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
J. Fowler
back-to-back.824 last start65:00 played
Backup Jakub Dobes · -2.8 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- C. Caufield19:46
- N. Suzuki23:32
- A. Newhook15:19
- J. Anderson14:21
- J. Slafkovský19:41
- C. Kreider13:50
- P. Danault17:25
- O. Beck06:59
- J. Evans13:42
- Z. Bolduc14:58
- K. Dach09:40
- A. Texier14:36
Defence · 6
- K. Guhle25:25
- A. Engstrom13:22
- A. Carrier21:55
- L. Hutson27:07
- N. Dobson18:56
- A. Xhekaj14:26
WSH
vs CAR · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
L. Thompson
back-to-back.912 last start58:42 played
Backup Charlie Lindgren · +2.0 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- A. Ovechkin13:02
- R. Leonard13:09
- D. Strome18:18
- A. Protas15:57
- B. Jenner16:01
- J. Kyrou10:47
- J. Sourdif11:29
- T. Wilson19:12
- E. Frank10:15
- I. Protas13:03
- A. Beauvillier12:02
- A. Tuch18:50
Defence · 6
- J. Holl12:05
- J. Chychrun22:19
- T. Liljegren18:52
- M. Fehérváry24:33
- C. Hutson19:12
- V. Desharnais20:05
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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