WARNINGCOL
M. Blackwood on a back-to-back
M. Blackwood projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · DAL at COL
The Avalanche are the model's lean over the Stars — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanWed, Oct 14
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 14, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans Colorado, but the goalies are the likeliest reason this game could go the other way.
Both starters are projected to play the second night of a back-to-back, so watch for a backup start or tired legs. The bigger edge belongs to J. Oettinger. His save percentage over five games is 94.4%. Measured as goals saved above expected, he sits 8.4 goals ahead of M. Blackwood this season. Blackwood's save percentage over the same five games is 87.9%.
Colorado is also the hotter team in the standings, going 4-2-0 through six games.
Five-on-five, the two teams have carried the same share of expected goals, 54.0% each, so the difference shows up elsewhere. Colorado takes a slightly larger share of shot attempts, 51.8%. Dallas is at 50.8%.
The caution is PDO, the sum of a team's shooting and save percentages. It tends to run high when the puck is bouncing a team's way. Colorado sits at 1.071, which is running hot and should be expected to regress. Dallas is at 1.046, also high enough to expect some regression.
The model projects a 2.9 - 3.3 finish, Dallas to Colorado. That gives the Avalanche a 56% chance to win, which is a lean rather than a lock. The lean holds only if the goalies play as projected and the PDO numbers come back toward normal, so check the starting lineups before puck drop.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected-goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:30 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
COL 56%
56%
COL
Model favorite
44%
56%
DAL50COL
COL by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score DAL 2.9–3.3 COL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
DAL← edge
edge →COL
54.0%54.0%
50.8%51.8%
2.993.21
2.542.74
2.174.83
1.673.17
1.0461.071
The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.046 vs 1.071) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 6
DAL
2-3-1
+2 GD · 0d rest
COL
4-2-0
+10 GD · 0d rest
1.046
DAL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.071
COL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGDAL
J. Oettinger on a back-to-back
J. Oettinger projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
WARNINGCOL
Regression watch: Avalanche
The Avalanche's PDO is 1.071 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGDAL
Regression watch: Stars
The Stars' PDO is 1.046 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Regression watch
- The Avalanche's PDO is 1.071 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Stars' PDO is 1.046 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- Goalie matchup: J. Oettinger (+6.0 GSAx in 5 GP, 94.4% SV) vs M. Blackwood (-2.4 GSAx in 5 GP, 87.9% SV).
- J. Oettinger has the GSAx edge — 8.4 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Avalanche are the hotter team by points pace (4-2-0 over their 6 games so far).
- The Avalanche's PDO is 1.071 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
DAL
vs COL · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
J. Oettinger
back-to-back.880 last start58:08 played
Backup Casey DeSmith · +0.2 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 11
- O. Bäck14:41
- R. Faksa09:55
- J. Benn13:42
- C. Blackwell08:25
- S. Steel20:28
- J. Robertson22:18
- R. Hintz16:30
- A. Hyry13:31
- J. Hryckowian13:40
- T. Seguin17:17
- M. Rantanen21:37
Defence · 7
- M. Heiskanen25:09
- N. Lundkvist17:48
- L. Bichsel15:05
- K. Capobianco02:59
- E. Lindell22:37
- T. Harley25:53
- T. Myers12:21
COL
vs DAL · Tue, Oct 13
Expected in goal
M. Blackwood
back-to-back.923 last start60:00 played
Backup Scott Wedgewood · -0.3 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- F. Svechkov11:24
- N. Roy09:50
- B. Nelson19:39
- T. Hughes13:05
- P. Kelly12:49
- N. MacKinnon20:01
- A. Lehkonen19:45
- Z. L'Heureux00:00
- J. Schwartz13:02
- M. Necas23:24
- N. Kadri22:47
- G. Landeskog16:29
Defence · 6
- D. Toews25:11
- B. Kulak18:25
- J. Manson19:01
- N. Juulsen12:36
- S. Malinski19:07
- B. Burns20:03
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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