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Breakdown · VGK at WSH

Capitals steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

FinalFri, Feb 27
VGKVegas Golden Knights2WSHWashington Capitals3
The verdict · stolen

The Capitals stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 5.34–3.23 and won anyway.

VGK 2 · WSH 3
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 4:42 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Capitals beat the Golden Knights 3–2 despite a staggering gulf in shot quality: Vegas had 11 high-danger chances to Washington's 3, yet scored just 2 goals. L. Thompson's performance—saving 3.3 goals above expected on a 0.923 save percentage—converted a dominant Vegas attack into a theft.

The numbers tell two stories. Washington held 54% of shot attempts (30–26) but just 38% of expected goals. Vegas generated 5.34 xG to Washington's 3.23 and should have won. Instead, the Golden Knights underperformed their chances by 3.3 goals, a deficit no amount of shot volume repairs.

A. Schmid couldn't bridge that gap. The Vegas goaltender saved 27 of 30, posting a 0.900 save percentage—average work against average volume. Thompson, meanwhile, operated in a different tier. Eleven high-danger chances, 91% save rate. That's how a goaltender swings a game he's otherwise losing.

For Washington, it was ruthless efficiency. P. Dubois scored twice with an assist; R. Sandin and A. Protas each added two helpers. When rush chances converted to goals and high-danger looks stayed out of the net at the other end, the Capitals' 3-goal result became plausible, even if the underlying script suggested otherwise.

Vegas had the better game. The Capitals stole this one.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Feb 27
VGK
2
WSH
3

Capitals steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

Chances 5.3 – 3.2Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
VGK
5.34
WSH
3.23
62% of the chances38%

The board read VGK 2, WSH 3. The chances read VGK 5.3, WSH 3.2.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
WSH
−0.2
goals above expected
WSH3.23 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
VGK5.34 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Golden Knights left 3.3 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 00:49WSHP. Dubois0–1
  2. P2 03:23WSHP. Dubois0–2
  3. P2 14:52WSHJ. Chychrun0–3
  4. P3 02:27VGKB. Bowman1–3
  5. P3 09:15VGKT. HertlPP2–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
VGK
47 shots
2
Final
91 shots
WSH
44 shots
3
VGK attackWSH attack
VGK WSH Goal
47
shots · 2 in
44
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
VGKWSH
1 / 11
2.77 xG
High danger
0 / 3
0.61 xG
1 / 19
2.14 xG
Medium
3 / 20
2.02 xG
0 / 36
0.44 xG
Low
0 / 33
0.60 xG

High-danger looks: VGK 1 of 11, WSH 0 of 3.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
L. Thompson
+3.3
WSH · 24/26
C
A. Schmid
+0.2
VGK · 27/30
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Capitals steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 6–10no goals
    2ndshots 7–12
    1. 00:49WSHP. Dubois(A. Protas, R. Sandin)0–1
    2. 03:23WSHP. Dubois(A. Protas)0–2
    3. 14:52WSHJ. Chychrun(R. Sandin, P. Dubois)0–3
    3rdshots 13–8
    1. 02:27VGKB. Bowman(K. Korczak, B. McNabb)1–3
    2. 09:15VGKT. Hertlpower play(P. Dorofeyev, M. Marner)2–3

    score reads VGK–WSH

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    3.23
    WSH chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −0.2
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.023
    WSH puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    45.9%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    5.34Expected goals3.23
    VGK 62% of the chance quality
    26Shots on goal30
    11High-danger chances3
    66All attempts (Corsi)56
    Adjusted for score: VGK 59% · WSH 41%
    Faceoffs · WSH won52%off57%neu47%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    VGK1 / 11 · 2.77 xG
    WSH0 / 3 · 0.61 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    VGK1 / 19 · 2.14 xG
    WSH3 / 20 · 2.02 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    VGK0 / 36 · 0.44 xG
    WSH0 / 33 · 0.60 xG

    VGK went 1-for-11 from high danger on 2.77 expected goals — 1.8 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    VGK
    2 G · 5.34 xG · -3.3
    WSH
    3 G · 3.23 xG · -0.2
    0123456

    VGK finished -3.3 against expected, WSH -0.2.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    VGK
    SNAP0/22
    WRIST1/8
    TIP IN1/7
    SLAP0/5
    BACKHAND0/4
    DEFLECTED0/1
    OTHER0/19
    WSH
    SNAP3/30
    WRIST0/4
    TIP IN0/4
    SLAP0/4
    BACKHAND0/1
    DEFLECTED0/1
    OTHER0/12
    VGK
    WSH
    Off the rush
    2 G on 31
    3.52 xG
    3 G on 26
    1.82 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 4
    0.99 xG
    0 G on 3
    0.61 xG

    Snap shots carried the volume: VGK went 0-for-22, WSH 3-for-30. WSH scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    A. Schmid
    VGK · 27/30 · .900
    +0.2
    saved above expected
    C
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/30.6+0.6
    Medium3/202.0-1.0
    Low0/330.6+0.6

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    L. Thompson
    WSH · 24/26 · .923
    +3.3
    saved above expected
    A+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/112.8+1.8
    Medium1/192.1+1.1
    Low0/360.4+0.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    91 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    VGK
    47 shots
    2
    Final
    91 shots
    WSH
    44 shots
    3
    VGK attackWSH attack
    VGK WSH Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, WSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    P. Dubois
    #80 · C · WSH
    2 G · 1 A · 6 SOG · 19:37 on ice · +3
    R. Sandin
    #38 · D · WSH
    0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 21:30 on ice · +3
    A. Protas
    #21 · L · WSH
    0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 19:38 on ice · +3
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Fri, Feb 27
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 4:41 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The Golden Knights dominate the underlying play. They drive 54.0% 5v5 expected goals to the Capitals' 50.0%, control possession at 52.0% Corsi, and should dictate flow. But the Capitals are running hot with a 1.018 PDO; the Knights, at 0.983, are running cold. Regression and positive bounce-back are coming for both sides. Both L. Thompson and A. Hill face back-to-back situations, raising the likelihood of backups or fatigued starters.

    The matchups reveal the sharp edges. Alex Ovechkin (19G, 17A, 0.97 xG/60, 2 HD goals, 13.8% shooting) powers the Capitals—he's both fortunate and lethal. Anthony Beauvillier (14G, 9A, 0.89 xG/60, 2 HD goals, 10.4% shooting) matches that output. Tomas Hertl (5G, 17A, 0.88 xG/60, 1 HD goal, 4.3% shooting) carries the Knights' offense, while Brandon Saad is likely out. Rasmus Andersson represents the Knights' defensive weakness; Declan Chisholm is the Capitals' vulnerability.

    The model sets the Knights at 51% to win a 2.6-2.5 game—a genuine coin flip. Victory hinges on whether the Capitals' run sustains or its PDO corrects downward, and whether the Knights' superior underlying play translates to goals. Both teams have generated 0% of their scoring from high-danger chances and 0% from rebounds, a statistical anomaly worth monitoring.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    VGK 51%
    51%
    VGK
    Model favorite
    51%
    49%
    VGK50WSH

    VGK by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score VGK 2.6–2.5 WSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    VGK← edge
    edge →WSH
    54.0%50.0%
    52.0%49.0%
    2.522.62
    2.112.62
    2.122.18
    2.101.79
    0.9831.018

    The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (0.983 vs 1.018) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    VGK
    4-4-2
    +0 GD · 1d rest
    WSH
    6-3-1
    +3 GD · 1d rest
    0.983
    VGK PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.018
    WSH PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
    • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Regression watch
    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
    • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    • L. Thompson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • A. Hill is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    VGK
    Expected in goal
    A. Hill
    back-to-back.789 last start
    Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    WSH
    Expected in goal
    L. Thompson
    back-to-back.958 last start
    Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    VGK
    Brandon Saad3G 6A
    0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh
    Tomas Hertl5G 17A
    0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh
    WSH
    Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
    0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
    Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
    0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

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